As of 9 October 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Paris Saint Germain a 67% chance of the title and Lyon 11%. Estac Troyes are the most likely to go down (99%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 71 | 67% | 93% | < 1% | – |
| 2 | Lyon | 3 | 61 | 11% | 52% | < 1% | – |
| 3 | Lens | 4 | 60 | 8% | 42% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 4 | Lille | 4 | 59 | 6% | 38% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | Monaco | 5 | 58 | 5% | 32% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Rennes | 6 | 56 | 3% | 22% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Paris FC | 7 | 52 | 1% | 10% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 9 | 49 | < 1% | 4% | 2% | – |
| 9 | Marseille | 9 | 48 | < 1% | 3% | 2% | – |
| 10 | Le Mans | 10 | 46 | < 1% | 2% | 3% | – |
| 11 | Lorient | 10 | 45 | < 1% | 1% | 4% | ▼ |
| 12 | Toulouse | 11 | 45 | < 1% | 1% | 5% | – |
| 13 | Auxerre | 14 | 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | – |
| 14 | Angers | 14 | 38 | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | ▲ |
| 15 | Stade Brestois 29 | 14 | 37 | < 1% | < 1% | 30% | ▼ |
| 16 | Nice | 16 | 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 54% | – |
| 17 | Le Havre | 16 | 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 59% | ▲ |
| 18 | Estac Troyes | 18 | 20 | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | – |
Club-by-club detail is in the Ligue 1 hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 9 October 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.7% mean calibration error across a 8M+-prediction track record. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
