As of 30 October 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Barnet a 50% chance of the title and Salford City 28%. Crawley Town are the most likely to go down (66%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Promotion | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 84 | 50% | 84% | < 1% | – |
| 2 | Salford City | 2 | 81 | 28% | 70% | < 1% | – |
| 3 | York | 5 | 73 | 6% | 31% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 6 | 72 | 5% | 27% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | Grimsby | 7 | 70 | 3% | 17% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Crewe | 8 | 69 | 2% | 14% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Exeter City | 8 | 69 | 2% | 14% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 67 | 2% | 11% | < 1% | – |
| 9 | Oldham | 10 | 66 | 1% | 7% | 1% | – |
| 10 | Swindon Town | 11 | 65 | < 1% | 5% | 1% | – |
| 11 | Accrington ST | 11 | 65 | 1% | 5% | 1% | – |
| 12 | Cheltenham | 11 | 64 | < 1% | 4% | 1% | – |
| 13 | Colchester | 12 | 62 | < 1% | 3% | 2% | – |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 62 | < 1% | 3% | 2% | – |
| 15 | Northampton | 14 | 60 | < 1% | 2% | 2% | – |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 59 | < 1% | 1% | 4% | – |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 18 | 55 | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | – |
| 18 | Rochdale | 19 | 54 | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | ▼ |
| 19 | Gillingham | 19 | 53 | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | – |
| 20 | Newport County | 19 | 53 | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | ▲ |
| 21 | Rotherham | 19 | 53 | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | ▼ |
| 22 | Port Vale | 20 | 51 | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | – |
| 23 | Tranmere | 20 | 51 | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | ▼ |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 23 | 43 | < 1% | < 1% | 66% | ▲ |
Club-by-club detail is in the League Two hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 30 October 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.5% mean calibration error across a 9M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
