As of 30 October 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives PSV Eindhoven a 53% chance of the title and Feyenoord 25%. Willem II are the most likely to go down (98%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 71 | 53% | 79% | < 1% | – |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 2 | 67 | 25% | 53% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 3 | Ajax | 3 | 65 | 14% | 38% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Twente | 3 | 63 | 8% | 25% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 54 | 1% | 3% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 7 | 51 | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Groningen | 8 | 50 | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 48 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 47 | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | – |
| 10 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 46 | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | – |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 45 | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | – |
| 12 | Excelsior | 12 | 42 | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | ▼ |
| 13 | Cambuur | 12 | 42 | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | – |
| 14 | Telstar | 14 | 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 26% | ▼ |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 15 | 34 | < 1% | < 1% | 42% | ▲ |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 16 | 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 54% | ▼ |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 58% | ▲ |
| 18 | Willem II | 18 | 21 | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | – |
Matchday: 23 October to 25 October. The simulation of 30 October (10,000 simulated seasons) against the last one before the matchday, 22 October (10,000).
Club-by-club detail is in the Eredivisie hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 30 October 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
Use this table: the table as an image (PNG) · embed it on your site (free, with the credit).
18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.5% mean calibration error across a 9M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
