As of 30 October 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives FC Porto a 64% chance of the title and Benfica 25%. Rio Ave are the most likely to go down (74%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 1 | 80 | 64% | 90% | < 1% | – |
| 2 | Benfica | 2 | 75 | 25% | 70% | < 1% | – |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 3 | 71 | 10% | 39% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 54 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 53 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 52 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 6 | 52 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 48 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 9 | Famalicao | 8 | 47 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 10 | Alverca | 11 | 41 | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | ▼ |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 12 | 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | – |
| 12 | Moreirense | 12 | 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | ▲ |
| 13 | Estrela | 13 | 37 | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | – |
| 14 | Nacional | 14 | 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 31% | ▼ |
| 15 | Maritimo | 14 | 34 | < 1% | < 1% | 35% | ▲ |
| 16 | Estoril | 15 | 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 48% | ▼ |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 16 | 31 | < 1% | < 1% | 62% | ▲ |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 17 | 29 | < 1% | < 1% | 74% | ▼ |
Club-by-club detail is in the Primeira Liga hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 30 October 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.5% mean calibration error across a 9M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
