As of 7 November 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Boreham Wood a 96% chance of the title and Southend 2%. Gateshead are the most likely to go down (> 99%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Promotion | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 1 | 103 | 96% | 96% | < 1% | – |
| 2 | Southend | 4 | 81 | 2% | 2% | < 1% | – |
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 4 | 80 | 1% | 1% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Carlisle | 4 | 79 | 1% | 1% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | AFC Fylde | 6 | 76 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Worthing | 6 | 75 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Barrow | 7 | 73 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | Yeovil Town | 9 | 70 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 9 | FC Halifax Town | 9 | 70 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | – |
| 10 | Forest Green | 10 | 69 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 11 | Altrincham | 10 | 68 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 12 | Woking | 10 | 68 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 13 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 62 | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | – |
| 14 | Sutton Utd | 14 | 61 | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | ▲ |
| 15 | Aldershot Town | 17 | 57 | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | – |
| 16 | AFC Hornchurch | 17 | 56 | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | – |
| 17 | Boston United | 17 | 56 | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | ▼ |
| 18 | Tamworth | 17 | 56 | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | – |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 18 | 55 | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | ▲ |
| 20 | Eastleigh | 20 | 51 | < 1% | < 1% | 44% | ▲ |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 20 | 50 | < 1% | < 1% | 48% | – |
| 22 | Solihull Moors | 21 | 50 | < 1% | < 1% | 50% | ▼ |
| 23 | Hartlepool | 21 | 49 | < 1% | < 1% | 53% | ▼ |
| 24 | Gateshead | 24 | 28 | < 1% | < 1% | > 99% | – |
Matchday: 30 October to 31 October. The simulation of 7 November (10,000 simulated seasons) against the last one before the matchday, 30 October (10,000).
Club-by-club detail is in the National League hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 7 November 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
