As of 17 October 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Lech Poznan a 50% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 25%. Slask Wroclaw are the most likely to go down (66%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Top 1 | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 67 | 50% | 50% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 63 | 25% | 25% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 3 | 60 | 11% | 11% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 57 | 6% | 6% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 4 | 57 | 6% | 6% | < 1% | ▼ |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 6 | 52 | 1% | 1% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 49 | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | – |
| 8 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 49 | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | – |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 47 | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | – |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 45 | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | ▲ |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 41 | < 1% | < 1% | 14% | ▲ |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 13 | 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 22% | ▼ |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 14 | 38 | < 1% | < 1% | 30% | ▲ |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 38 | < 1% | < 1% | 28% | ▲ |
| 15 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 37 | < 1% | < 1% | 36% | – |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 15 | 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 38% | ▼ |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 16 | 34 | < 1% | < 1% | 56% | – |
| 18 | Slask Wroclaw | 17 | 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 66% | ▼ |
Club-by-club detail is in the Ekstraklasa hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 17 October 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.6% mean calibration error across an 8M+-prediction track record. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
