As of 4 November 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Arsenal a 63% chance of the title and Manchester City 31%. Crystal Palace are the most likely to go down (69%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 82 | 63% | > 99% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 2 | Manchester City | 2 | 77 | 31% | 98% | < 1% | ▼ |
| 3 | Brighton | 3 | 69 | 5% | 83% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Liverpool | 6 | 59 | < 1% | 30% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | Brentford | 6 | 59 | < 1% | 26% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Chelsea | 7 | 58 | < 1% | 21% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 8 | 56 | < 1% | 13% | 1% | – |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 53 | < 1% | 8% | 1% | – |
| 9 | Everton | 10 | 52 | < 1% | 6% | 2% | – |
| 10 | Leeds | 10 | 52 | < 1% | 6% | 2% | – |
| 11 | Manchester United | 10 | 52 | < 1% | 6% | 2% | – |
| 12 | Newcastle | 12 | 48 | < 1% | 2% | 7% | ▼ |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 13 | 46 | < 1% | 1% | 10% | – |
| 14 | Fulham | 13 | 46 | < 1% | 1% | 11% | ▲ |
| 15 | Hull City | 14 | 45 | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | ▲ |
| 16 | Tottenham | 15 | 43 | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | – |
| 17 | Ipswich | 17 | 40 | < 1% | < 1% | 37% | ▼ |
| 18 | Sunderland | 18 | 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 59% | ▼ |
| 19 | Coventry | 19 | 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 69% | ▲ |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 19 | 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 69% | – |
Matchday: 31 October to 2 November. The simulation of 4 November (10,000 simulated seasons) against the last one before the matchday, 30 October (10,000).
The weekly write-up of this table: Premier League Predicted Table 2026/27 — Title & Relegation Probabilities.
Club-by-club detail is in the Premier League hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 4 November 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
