As of 5 November 2026, TACTIX’s 10,000-run simulation gives Castellón a 57% chance of the title and Almeria 16%. AD Ceuta FC are the most likely to go down (90%). The table re-runs as results land; the model’s record is on the scoreboard.
| Pos | Club | Median finish | Proj. pts | Title | Promotion | Relegation | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 1 | 82 | 57% | 77% | < 1% | ▲ |
| 2 | Almeria | 3 | 76 | 16% | 40% | < 1% | ▼ |
| 3 | Mallorca | 4 | 73 | 8% | 23% | < 1% | – |
| 4 | Girona | 4 | 72 | 8% | 22% | < 1% | – |
| 5 | Eibar | 4 | 72 | 7% | 20% | < 1% | – |
| 6 | Burgos | 6 | 68 | 2% | 7% | < 1% | – |
| 7 | Granada CF | 7 | 65 | 1% | 4% | < 1% | – |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 8 | 65 | 1% | 4% | < 1% | – |
| 9 | Oviedo | 10 | 61 | < 1% | 1% | 1% | – |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 10 | 60 | < 1% | 1% | 2% | – |
| 11 | Sabadell | 10 | 59 | < 1% | 1% | 2% | – |
| 12 | FC Andorra | 13 | 54 | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | – |
| 13 | Tenerife | 13 | 54 | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | ▲ |
| 14 | Cordoba | 14 | 53 | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | – |
| 15 | Eldense | 15 | 51 | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | ▼ |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 16 | 50 | < 1% | < 1% | 22% | ▲ |
| 17 | Valladolid | 16 | 49 | < 1% | < 1% | 26% | ▼ |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 17 | 47 | < 1% | < 1% | 34% | – |
| 19 | Leganes | 19 | 45 | < 1% | < 1% | 51% | – |
| 20 | Albacete | 19 | 44 | < 1% | < 1% | 55% | ▲ |
| 21 | Cadiz | 20 | 41 | < 1% | < 1% | 71% | – |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 22 | 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | – |
Matchday: 31 October to 2 November. The simulation of 5 November (10,000 simulated seasons) against the last one before the matchday, 30 October (10,000).
Club-by-club detail is in the Segunda División hub. How the model is checked: the scoreboard.
Updated 5 November 2026 · 10,000 simulated seasons · how the model is checked: /scoreboard
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18+. TACTIX predictions are model-informed analysis, not betting advice or guarantees. Accuracy shown counts rated picks (≥70% confidence) only; calibration is ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.
