Our model vs bookmaker leaderboard puts three pickers on the same settled fixtures, losers included. In the match-result market the TACTIX model’s top pick came in 49.7% of the time against 54.8% for the bookmaker favourite, over 13,955 settled picks (the favourite counted on the 7,323 with a price before kick-off), last computed 11 November 2026. The best constant pick in hindsight is shown beside them as the floor. Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often”; it is not a claim about returns, and the price-aware view lives on the scoreboard.
How to read it: each row compares the three pickers on exactly the same fixtures, so a market where the model and the favourite are close is one where the bookmakers already price the obvious well. Cells with too few settled picks are held back rather than ranked, and the all-time and last-12-months tables are shown separately so an old run of form cannot hide a recent one.
Across the full record to 11 November 2026, over 706 settled FA Cup match-result predictions, the model’s top pick landed 55.9% of the time, against 54.8% for the bookmaker favourite (lowest closing price, the last recorded before kick-off at UK-available bookmakers; 168 matches with a price before kick-off) — +1.1 percentage points. Hit rate, not profit.
Cite as: “Across the full record to 11 November 2026, over 706 settled FA Cup match-result predictions, the model’s top pick landed 55.9% of the time, against 54.8% for the bookmaker favourite (lowest closing price, the last recorded before kick-off at UK-available bookmakers; 168 matches with a price before kick-off) — +1.1 percentage points. Hit rate, not profit.” TACTIX model accuracy leaderboard, https://tactix.football/model-leaderboard#lg-45.
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Best constant pick | Model − favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 18,060 | 99.8% | — | 98.8% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 16,575 | 99.4% | — | 97.2% under | — |
| correct_score | 14,480 | 9.9% | — | 11.2% cs_1_1 | — |
| goals_odd_even | 14,465 | 50.1% | 50.2% (n=8,318) | 50.3% even | -0.1 pp |
| player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 14,351 | 94.4% | — | 89.0% under | — |
| clean_sheet | 14,291 | 30.1% | 34.0% (n=7,021) | 29.6% cs_home | -3.9 pp |
| Total goals (over / under) | 14,256 | 94.6% | 95.1% (n=7,892) | 93.8% over_0_5 | -0.5 pp |
| Team to score | 14,255 | 77.8% | — | 77.5% score_home | — |
| win_to_nil | 14,218 | 23.9% | — | 23.4% win_home_nil | — |
| Double chance | 14,148 | 74.4% | 79.1% (n=5,315) | 76.0% dc_home_or_away | -4.7 pp |
| btts_result | 14,116 | 23.5% | — | 23.4% btts_no_home | — |
| asian_handicap | 14,097 | 24.7% | — | 29.6% ah_home_minus1 | — |
| Both teams to score | 14,046 | 54.1% | 56.4% (n=7,322) | 54.1% btts_yes | -2.3 pp |
| home_team_goals | 13,982 | 82.1% | — | 77.9% home_under_2_5 | — |
| away_team_goals | 13,975 | 83.8% | — | 84.7% away_under_2_5 | — |
| Match result (1X2) | 13,955 | 49.7% | 54.8% (n=7,323) | 44.0% win_home | -5.1 pp |
| htft | 13,741 | 26.8% | — | 26.7% home_home | — |
| goal_both_halves | 13,673 | 55.6% | — | 58.9% yes | — |
| First-half goals | 13,624 | 85.1% | 86.6% (n=7,316) | 86.1% under_2_5 | -1.5 pp |
| ht_result | 13,607 | 40.9% | — | 40.0% draw | — |
| half_with_most_goals | 13,606 | 45.2% | — | 45.5% second | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_3_5 | 12,977 | 98.3% | — | 94.5% under | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_2_5 | 11,907 | 97.8% | — | 93.2% under | — |
| player_passes_key_under_2_5 | 11,182 | 98.6% | — | 93.7% under | — |
| player_duels_won_under_7_5 | 11,068 | 97.9% | — | 93.1% under | — |
| player_shots_on_under_1_5 | 10,882 | 98.2% | — | 94.6% under | — |
| Draw no bet | 10,741 | 58.8% | 60.0% (n=5) | 57.9% dnb_home | -1.2 pp |
| player_fouls_committed_under_2_5 | 10,589 | 97.2% | — | 93.3% under | — |
| player_shots_on_under_0_5 | 10,096 | 87.9% | — | 77.7% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_2_5 | 9,603 | 98.0% | — | 92.7% under | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_2_5 | 9,362 | 95.3% | — | 87.1% under | — |
| most_cards_yellow | 9,316 | 40.7% | — | 45.4% away | — |
| player_passes_key_under_1_5 | 9,231 | 95.0% | — | 84.0% under | — |
| anytime_goalscorer | 9,215 | 21.8% | — | 7.2% yes | — |
| player_passes_key_under_0_5 | 9,129 | 78.2% | — | 60.0% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_1_5 | 9,116 | 63.6% | — | 63.6% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_2_5 | 9,116 | 35.5% | — | 35.5% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 9,116 | 15.1% | — | 15.1% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_1_5 | 9,116 | 36.4% | — | 36.4% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_2_5 | 9,116 | 64.5% | — | 64.5% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 9,116 | 84.9% | — | 84.9% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_1_5 | 9,116 | 55.4% | — | 55.4% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_2_5 | 9,116 | 27.4% | — | 27.4% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 9,116 | 11.3% | — | 11.3% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_1_5 | 9,116 | 44.6% | — | 44.6% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_2_5 | 9,116 | 72.6% | — | 72.6% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 9,116 | 88.7% | — | 88.7% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 9,116 | 54.7% | — | 54.7% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_4_5 | 9,116 | 36.1% | — | 36.1% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_5_5 | 9,116 | 21.7% | — | 21.7% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 9,116 | 45.3% | — | 45.3% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_4_5 | 9,116 | 63.9% | — | 63.9% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_5_5 | 9,116 | 78.3% | — | 78.3% under | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_1_5 | 9,074 | 92.4% | — | 81.4% under | — |
| most_shots_on | 9,058 | 52.4% | — | 55.2% home | — |
| most_corners_total | 9,033 | 51.5% | — | 54.4% home | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_0_5 | 8,981 | 74.1% | — | 54.5% under | — |
| first_goalscorer | 8,973 | 9.1% | — | 2.8% yes | — |
| player_shots_total_under_0_5 | 8,929 | 75.8% | — | 57.7% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_1_5 | 8,929 | 93.3% | — | 82.2% under | — |
| player_cards_yellow_over_0_5 | 8,924 | 14.6% | — | 11.0% over | — |
| most_fouls_total | 8,918 | 52.1% | — | 48.8% away | — |
| away_shots_on_over_2_5 | 8,897 | 70.6% | — | 70.6% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_3_5 | 8,897 | 52.9% | — | 52.9% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_4_5 | 8,897 | 36.4% | — | 36.4% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_5_5 | 8,897 | 23.4% | — | 23.4% over | — |
| away_shots_on_under_2_5 | 8,897 | 29.4% | — | 29.4% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_3_5 | 8,897 | 47.1% | — | 47.1% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_4_5 | 8,897 | 63.6% | — | 63.6% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_5_5 | 8,897 | 76.6% | — | 76.6% under | — |
| home_shots_on_over_2_5 | 8,897 | 82.3% | — | 82.3% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_3_5 | 8,897 | 68.1% | — | 68.1% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_4_5 | 8,897 | 52.3% | — | 52.3% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_5_5 | 8,897 | 37.5% | — | 37.5% over | — |
| home_shots_on_under_2_5 | 8,897 | 17.7% | — | 17.7% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_3_5 | 8,897 | 31.9% | — | 31.9% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_4_5 | 8,897 | 47.7% | — | 47.7% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_5_5 | 8,897 | 62.5% | — | 62.5% under | — |
| total_shots_on_over_10_5 | 8,897 | 29.9% | 37.2% (n=1,503) | 29.9% over | -7.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_7_5 | 8,897 | 64.3% | 67.6% (n=1,562) | 64.3% over | -3.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_8_5 | 8,897 | 51.8% | 55.5% (n=1,935) | 51.8% over | -3.7 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_9_5 | 8,897 | 40.6% | 45.6% (n=1,916) | 40.6% over | -5.0 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_10_5 | 8,897 | 70.1% | 62.8% (n=1,503) | 70.1% under | +7.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_7_5 | 8,897 | 35.7% | 32.4% (n=1,563) | 35.7% under | +3.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_8_5 | 8,897 | 48.2% | 44.5% (n=1,936) | 48.2% under | +3.7 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_9_5 | 8,897 | 59.4% | 54.5% (n=1,915) | 59.4% under | +4.9 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_3_5 | 8,894 | 58.1% | 57.3% (n=3,581) | 58.1% over | +0.8 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_4_5 | 8,894 | 43.0% | 44.6% (n=3,817) | 43.0% over | -1.6 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_5_5 | 8,894 | 29.7% | 31.7% (n=3,489) | 29.7% over | -2.0 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_6_5 | 8,894 | 19.7% | 21.3% (n=3,021) | 19.7% over | -1.6 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_3_5 | 8,894 | 41.9% | 45.1% (n=2,789) | 41.9% under | -3.2 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_4_5 | 8,894 | 57.0% | 54.7% (n=3,080) | 57.0% under | +2.3 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_5_5 | 8,894 | 70.3% | 66.5% (n=2,308) | 70.3% under | +3.8 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_6_5 | 8,894 | 80.3% | 76.7% (n=1,546) | 80.3% under | +3.6 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_3_5 | 8,894 | 70.6% | 69.1% (n=3,024) | 70.6% over | +1.5 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_4_5 | 8,894 | 56.9% | 56.8% (n=3,652) | 56.9% over | +0.1 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_5_5 | 8,894 | 43.4% | 45.0% (n=3,739) | 43.4% over | -1.6 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_6_5 | 8,894 | 30.9% | 33.2% (n=3,434) | 30.9% over | -2.3 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_3_5 | 8,894 | 29.4% | 33.5% (n=1,812) | 29.4% under | -4.1 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_4_5 | 8,894 | 43.1% | 44.6% (n=2,872) | 43.1% under | -1.5 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_5_5 | 8,894 | 56.6% | 53.9% (n=2,926) | 56.6% under | +2.7 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_6_5 | 8,894 | 69.1% | 65.1% (n=2,297) | 69.1% under | +4.0 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_10_5 | 8,894 | 38.7% | 40.6% (n=4,307) | 38.7% over | -1.9 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_11_5 | 8,894 | 28.9% | 31.8% (n=4,068) | 28.9% over | -2.9 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_12_5 | 8,894 | 20.7% | 23.7% (n=3,643) | 20.7% over | -3.0 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_8_5 | 8,894 | 61.3% | 62.6% (n=4,255) | 61.3% over | -1.3 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_9_5 | 8,894 | 49.9% | 51.1% (n=4,469) | 49.9% over | -1.2 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_10_5 | 8,894 | 61.3% | 59.3% (n=4,273) | 61.3% under | +2.0 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_11_5 | 8,894 | 71.1% | 68.1% (n=4,048) | 71.1% under | +3.0 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_12_5 | 8,894 | 79.3% | 76.3% (n=3,631) | 79.3% under | +3.0 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_8_5 | 8,894 | 38.7% | 37.4% (n=4,277) | 38.7% under | +1.3 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_9_5 | 8,894 | 50.1% | 48.8% (n=4,471) | 50.1% under | +1.3 pp |
| most_saves | 8,868 | 47.2% | — | 51.6% away | — |
| player_duels_won_under_5_5 | 8,863 | 94.1% | — | 82.3% under | — |
| most_shots_total | 8,834 | 56.6% | — | 59.7% home | — |
| away_fouls_total_over_10_5 | 8,813 | 64.2% | 53.9% (n=152) | 64.2% over | +10.3 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_11_5 | 8,813 | 53.9% | 44.5% (n=245) | 53.9% over | +9.4 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_12_5 | 8,813 | 43.8% | 50.3% (n=286) | 43.8% over | -6.5 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_9_5 | 8,813 | 73.3% | 65.5% (n=55) | 73.3% over | +7.8 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_10_5 | 8,813 | 35.8% | 46.1% (n=152) | 35.8% under | -10.3 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_11_5 | 8,813 | 46.1% | 55.5% (n=245) | 46.1% under | -9.4 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_12_5 | 8,813 | 56.2% | 49.7% (n=286) | 56.2% under | +6.5 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_9_5 | 8,813 | 26.7% | 34.5% (n=55) | 26.7% under | -7.8 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_10_5 | 8,813 | 60.5% | 52.2% (n=182) | 60.5% over | +8.3 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_11_5 | 8,813 | 50.4% | 49.0% (n=286) | 50.4% over | +1.4 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_12_5 | 8,813 | 40.8% | 46.9% (n=256) | 40.8% over | -6.1 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_9_5 | 8,813 | 70.3% | 59.0% (n=78) | 70.3% over | +11.3 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_10_5 | 8,813 | 39.5% | 47.8% (n=182) | 39.5% under | -8.3 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_11_5 | 8,813 | 49.6% | 51.0% (n=286) | 49.6% under | -1.4 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_12_5 | 8,813 | 59.2% | 53.1% (n=256) | 59.2% under | +6.1 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_9_5 | 8,813 | 29.7% | 41.0% (n=78) | 29.7% under | -11.3 pp |
| total_fouls_total_over_19_5 | 8,813 | 77.0% | 71.4% (n=28) | 77.0% over | +5.6 pp |
| total_fouls_total_over_21_5 | 8,813 | 64.8% | 53.6% (n=125) | 64.8% over | +11.2 pp |
| total_fouls_total_over_23_5 | 8,813 | 51.3% | 44.0% (n=175) | 51.3% over | +7.3 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_19_5 | 8,813 | 23.0% | 28.6% (n=28) | 23.0% under | -5.6 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_21_5 | 8,813 | 35.2% | 46.4% (n=125) | 35.2% under | -11.2 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_23_5 | 8,813 | 48.7% | 56.0% (n=175) | 48.7% under | -7.3 pp |
| away_shots_total_over_11_5 | 8,799 | 48.5% | — | 48.5% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_13_5 | 8,799 | 33.5% | — | 33.5% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_15_5 | 8,799 | 21.6% | — | 21.6% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_9_5 | 8,799 | 65.2% | — | 65.2% over | — |
| away_shots_total_under_11_5 | 8,799 | 51.5% | — | 51.5% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_13_5 | 8,799 | 66.5% | — | 66.5% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_15_5 | 8,799 | 78.4% | — | 78.4% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_9_5 | 8,799 | 34.8% | — | 34.8% under | — |
| home_shots_total_over_11_5 | 8,799 | 67.6% | — | 67.6% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_13_5 | 8,799 | 52.9% | — | 52.9% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_15_5 | 8,799 | 38.7% | — | 38.7% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_9_5 | 8,799 | 80.9% | — | 80.9% over | — |
| home_shots_total_under_11_5 | 8,799 | 32.4% | — | 32.4% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_13_5 | 8,799 | 47.1% | — | 47.1% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_15_5 | 8,799 | 61.3% | — | 61.3% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_9_5 | 8,799 | 19.1% | — | 19.1% under | — |
| total_shots_total_over_22_5 | 8,799 | 71.8% | 74.2% (n=868) | 71.8% over | -2.4 pp |
| total_shots_total_over_25_5 | 8,799 | 53.2% | 58.3% (n=1,503) | 53.2% over | -5.1 pp |
| total_shots_total_over_28_5 | 8,799 | 35.3% | 44.2% (n=1,320) | 35.3% over | -8.9 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_22_5 | 8,799 | 28.2% | 25.8% (n=868) | 28.2% under | +2.4 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_25_5 | 8,799 | 46.8% | 41.7% (n=1,503) | 46.8% under | +5.1 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_28_5 | 8,799 | 64.7% | 55.8% (n=1,320) | 64.7% under | +8.9 pp |
| player_fouls_committed_under_1_5 | 8,780 | 89.5% | — | 80.1% under | — |
| player_fouls_committed_under_0_5 | 8,758 | 66.5% | — | 51.0% under | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_0_5 | 8,727 | 67.0% | — | 45.8% under | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_1_5 | 8,724 | 87.4% | — | 72.1% under | — |
| away_saves_over_1_5 | 8,682 | 80.5% | — | 80.5% over | — |
| away_saves_over_2_5 | 8,682 | 62.1% | — | 62.1% over | — |
| away_saves_over_3_5 | 8,682 | 41.6% | — | 41.6% over | — |
| away_saves_over_4_5 | 8,682 | 25.8% | — | 25.8% over | — |
| away_saves_under_1_5 | 8,682 | 19.5% | — | 19.5% under | — |
| away_saves_under_2_5 | 8,682 | 37.9% | — | 37.9% under | — |
| away_saves_under_3_5 | 8,682 | 58.4% | — | 58.4% under | — |
| away_saves_under_4_5 | 8,682 | 74.2% | — | 74.2% under | — |
| home_saves_over_1_5 | 8,682 | 70.8% | — | 70.8% over | — |
| home_saves_over_2_5 | 8,682 | 48.2% | — | 48.2% over | — |
| home_saves_over_3_5 | 8,682 | 29.5% | — | 29.5% over | — |
| home_saves_over_4_5 | 8,682 | 16.4% | — | 16.4% over | — |
| home_saves_under_1_5 | 8,682 | 29.2% | — | 29.2% under | — |
| home_saves_under_2_5 | 8,682 | 51.8% | — | 51.8% under | — |
| home_saves_under_3_5 | 8,682 | 70.5% | — | 70.5% under | — |
| home_saves_under_4_5 | 8,682 | 83.6% | — | 83.6% under | — |
| total_saves_over_5_5 | 8,682 | 54.5% | — | 54.5% over | — |
| total_saves_over_6_5 | 8,682 | 40.3% | — | 40.3% over | — |
| total_saves_over_7_5 | 8,682 | 27.0% | — | 27.0% over | — |
| total_saves_under_5_5 | 8,682 | 45.5% | — | 45.5% under | — |
| total_saves_under_6_5 | 8,682 | 59.7% | — | 59.7% under | — |
| total_saves_under_7_5 | 8,682 | 73.0% | — | 73.0% under | — |
| player_shots_on_over_0_5 | 8,648 | 48.4% | — | 22.3% over | — |
| player_shots_on_over_1_5 | 8,644 | 19.0% | — | 5.4% over | — |
| player_shots_on_over_2_5 | 8,644 | 6.0% | — | 1.2% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_0_5 | 8,630 | 73.3% | — | 42.3% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_3_5 | 8,585 | 13.7% | — | 2.8% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_2_5 | 8,579 | 26.8% | — | 7.3% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_1_5 | 8,578 | 48.2% | — | 17.8% over | — |
| most_offsides | 8,575 | 45.6% | — | 43.6% home | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_0_5 | 8,558 | 73.6% | — | 54.2% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_3_5 | 8,554 | 13.8% | — | 5.5% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_2_5 | 8,539 | 27.4% | — | 12.9% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_1_5 | 8,528 | 48.3% | — | 27.9% over | — |
| player_duels_won_under_3_5 | 8,515 | 83.1% | — | 61.6% under | — |
| player_duels_won_over_3_5 | 8,432 | 64.8% | — | 38.4% over | — |
| player_passes_key_over_0_5 | 8,416 | 71.1% | — | 40.0% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_0_5 | 8,413 | 71.4% | — | 45.5% over | — |
| player_duels_won_over_5_5 | 8,411 | 40.3% | — | 17.7% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_0_5 | 8,411 | 64.7% | — | 49.0% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_1_5 | 8,405 | 34.4% | — | 19.9% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_2_5 | 8,405 | 22.3% | — | 6.8% over | — |
| player_duels_won_over_7_5 | 8,404 | 20.6% | — | 6.9% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_2_5 | 8,404 | 14.9% | — | 6.7% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_1_5 | 8,403 | 42.4% | — | 18.6% over | — |
| player_passes_key_over_1_5 | 8,400 | 43.4% | — | 16.0% over | — |
| player_passes_key_over_2_5 | 8,400 | 23.4% | — | 6.3% over | — |
| away_offsides_over_0_5 | 8,363 | 79.9% | 76.5% (n=344) | 79.9% over | +3.4 pp |
| away_offsides_over_1_5 | 8,363 | 47.6% | 46.7% (n=668) | 47.6% over | +0.9 pp |
| away_offsides_over_2_5 | 8,363 | 24.1% | 26.2% (n=442) | 24.1% over | -2.1 pp |
| away_offsides_over_3_5 | 8,363 | 10.8% | 26.2% (n=126) | 10.8% over | -15.4 pp |
| away_offsides_under_0_5 | 8,363 | 20.1% | 23.5% (n=344) | 20.1% under | -3.4 pp |
| away_offsides_under_1_5 | 8,363 | 52.4% | 53.3% (n=668) | 52.4% under | -0.9 pp |
| away_offsides_under_2_5 | 8,363 | 75.9% | 73.8% (n=442) | 75.9% under | +2.1 pp |
| away_offsides_under_3_5 | 8,363 | 89.2% | 73.8% (n=126) | 89.2% under | +15.4 pp |
| home_offsides_over_0_5 | 8,363 | 82.3% | 78.9% (n=322) | 82.3% over | +3.4 pp |
| home_offsides_over_1_5 | 8,363 | 51.7% | 52.2% (n=669) | 51.7% over | -0.5 pp |
| home_offsides_over_2_5 | 8,363 | 26.9% | 26.6% (n=444) | 26.9% over | +0.3 pp |
| home_offsides_over_3_5 | 8,363 | 13.2% | 23.3% (n=133) | 13.2% over | -10.1 pp |
| home_offsides_under_0_5 | 8,363 | 17.7% | 21.1% (n=322) | 17.7% under | -3.4 pp |
| home_offsides_under_1_5 | 8,363 | 48.3% | 47.8% (n=669) | 48.3% under | +0.5 pp |
| home_offsides_under_2_5 | 8,363 | 73.1% | 73.4% (n=444) | 73.1% under | -0.3 pp |
| home_offsides_under_3_5 | 8,363 | 86.8% | 76.7% (n=133) | 86.8% under | +10.1 pp |
| total_offsides_over_3_5 | 8,363 | 44.4% | 45.3% (n=569) | 44.4% over | -0.9 pp |
| total_offsides_over_4_5 | 8,363 | 27.3% | 28.3% (n=435) | 27.3% over | -1.0 pp |
| total_offsides_over_5_5 | 8,363 | 15.7% | 18.4% (n=376) | 15.7% over | -2.7 pp |
| total_offsides_under_3_5 | 8,363 | 55.6% | 54.7% (n=569) | 55.6% under | +0.9 pp |
| total_offsides_under_4_5 | 8,363 | 72.7% | 71.7% (n=435) | 72.7% under | +1.0 pp |
| total_offsides_under_5_5 | 8,363 | 84.3% | 81.6% (n=376) | 84.3% under | +2.7 pp |
| player_saves_under_5_5 | 8,036 | 93.2% | — | 92.1% under | — |
| player_saves_under_4_5 | 7,977 | 86.4% | — | 84.4% under | — |
| player_saves_under_3_5 | 7,906 | 75.9% | — | 73.0% under | — |
| player_saves_over_5_5 | 7,890 | 10.3% | — | 7.9% over | — |
| player_saves_under_2_5 | 7,804 | 60.3% | — | 57.4% under | — |
| player_saves_over_4_5 | 7,768 | 20.0% | — | 15.6% over | — |
| player_saves_under_1_5 | 7,754 | 44.4% | — | 40.9% under | — |
| player_saves_over_3_5 | 7,752 | 34.2% | — | 27.0% over | — |
| player_saves_over_1_5 | 7,734 | 73.1% | — | 59.1% over | — |
| player_saves_over_2_5 | 7,734 | 52.9% | — | 42.6% over | — |
| player_goals_conceded_under_1_5 | 7,035 | 88.4% | — | 77.7% under | — |
| player_goals_conceded_under_0_5 | 7,004 | 78.0% | — | 58.4% under | — |
| player_goals_conceded_over_0_5 | 6,706 | 62.5% | — | 41.6% over | — |
| player_goals_conceded_over_1_5 | 6,703 | 34.3% | — | 22.3% over | — |
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Best constant pick | Model − favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 15,681 | 99.8% | — | 98.8% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 14,271 | 99.4% | — | 97.0% under | — |
| player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 12,601 | 94.6% | — | 89.2% under | — |
| goals_odd_even | 11,974 | 50.2% | 50.2% (n=8,316) | 50.2% even | 0.0 pp |
| clean_sheet | 11,650 | 30.1% | 34.0% (n=7,021) | 29.6% cs_home | -3.9 pp |
| win_to_nil | 11,626 | 23.9% | — | 23.4% win_home_nil | — |
| correct_score | 11,607 | 10.1% | — | 11.4% cs_1_1 | — |
| Double chance | 11,600 | 74.4% | 79.1% (n=5,315) | 75.9% dc_home_or_away | -4.7 pp |
| Team to score | 11,578 | 78.2% | — | 77.8% score_home | — |
| btts_result | 11,565 | 23.5% | — | 23.4% btts_no_home | — |
| Both teams to score | 11,555 | 54.4% | 56.3% (n=7,321) | 54.4% btts_yes | -1.9 pp |
| Total goals (over / under) | 11,548 | 94.7% | 95.1% (n=7,891) | 93.8% over_0_5 | -0.4 pp |
| asian_handicap | 11,534 | 25.0% | — | 30.0% ah_home_minus1 | — |
| htft | 11,520 | 27.1% | — | 26.8% home_home | — |
| goal_both_halves | 11,493 | 56.1% | — | 59.4% yes | — |
| home_team_goals | 11,478 | 82.2% | — | 77.8% home_over_0_5 | — |
| away_team_goals | 11,472 | 84.0% | — | 84.8% away_under_2_5 | — |
| Match result (1X2) | 11,464 | 48.2% | 54.8% (n=7,322) | 44.3% win_home | -6.6 pp |
| First-half goals | 11,433 | 85.2% | 86.6% (n=7,316) | 86.0% under_2_5 | -1.4 pp |
| ht_result | 11,427 | 40.9% | — | 39.7% draw | — |
| half_with_most_goals | 11,426 | 45.3% | — | 45.5% second | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_3_5 | 11,230 | 98.4% | — | 94.6% under | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_2_5 | 10,350 | 97.9% | — | 93.3% under | — |
| player_shots_on_under_1_5 | 9,612 | 98.3% | — | 94.7% under | — |
| player_passes_key_under_2_5 | 9,593 | 98.7% | — | 93.7% under | — |
| player_fouls_committed_under_2_5 | 9,176 | 97.3% | — | 93.5% under | — |
| player_duels_won_under_7_5 | 9,166 | 98.3% | — | 93.4% under | — |
| player_shots_on_under_0_5 | 8,822 | 88.5% | — | 77.9% under | — |
| Draw no bet | 8,782 | 59.5% | 60.0% (n=5) | 58.4% dnb_home | -0.5 pp |
| player_shots_total_under_2_5 | 8,367 | 98.1% | — | 92.5% under | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_2_5 | 8,193 | 95.6% | — | 87.3% under | — |
| player_passes_key_under_1_5 | 8,064 | 95.3% | — | 84.1% under | — |
| player_passes_key_under_0_5 | 7,961 | 79.2% | — | 60.4% under | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_1_5 | 7,908 | 92.7% | — | 81.8% under | — |
| anytime_goalscorer | 7,900 | 22.3% | — | 7.2% yes | — |
| most_cards_yellow | 7,871 | 40.6% | — | 45.4% away | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_under_0_5 | 7,815 | 75.3% | — | 55.3% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 7,804 | 53.7% | — | 53.7% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_4_5 | 7,804 | 34.9% | — | 34.9% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_over_5_5 | 7,804 | 21.0% | — | 21.0% over | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 7,804 | 46.3% | — | 46.3% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_4_5 | 7,804 | 65.1% | — | 65.1% under | — |
| total_cards_yellow_under_5_5 | 7,804 | 79.0% | — | 79.0% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_1_5 | 7,803 | 63.0% | — | 63.0% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_2_5 | 7,803 | 34.9% | — | 34.9% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 7,803 | 14.7% | — | 14.7% over | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_1_5 | 7,803 | 37.0% | — | 37.0% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_2_5 | 7,803 | 65.1% | — | 65.1% under | — |
| away_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 7,803 | 85.3% | — | 85.3% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_1_5 | 7,803 | 54.4% | — | 54.4% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_2_5 | 7,803 | 26.7% | — | 26.7% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_over_3_5 | 7,803 | 11.0% | — | 11.0% over | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_1_5 | 7,803 | 45.6% | — | 45.6% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_2_5 | 7,803 | 73.3% | — | 73.3% under | — |
| home_cards_yellow_under_3_5 | 7,803 | 89.0% | — | 89.0% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_0_5 | 7,766 | 76.6% | — | 57.8% under | — |
| player_shots_total_under_1_5 | 7,766 | 93.4% | — | 82.0% under | — |
| player_duels_won_under_5_5 | 7,706 | 94.5% | — | 82.8% under | — |
| most_shots_on | 7,704 | 52.8% | — | 55.6% home | — |
| most_corners_total | 7,703 | 51.5% | — | 54.8% home | — |
| first_goalscorer | 7,679 | 9.2% | — | 2.7% yes | — |
| total_shots_on_over_10_5 | 7,659 | 30.8% | 37.2% (n=1,503) | 30.8% over | -6.4 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_7_5 | 7,659 | 65.3% | 67.6% (n=1,562) | 65.3% over | -2.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_8_5 | 7,659 | 52.8% | 55.4% (n=1,934) | 52.8% over | -2.6 pp |
| total_shots_on_over_9_5 | 7,659 | 41.6% | 45.5% (n=1,915) | 41.6% over | -3.9 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_10_5 | 7,659 | 69.2% | 62.8% (n=1,503) | 69.2% under | +6.4 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_7_5 | 7,659 | 34.7% | 32.4% (n=1,563) | 34.7% under | +2.3 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_8_5 | 7,659 | 47.3% | 44.5% (n=1,935) | 47.3% under | +2.8 pp |
| total_shots_on_under_9_5 | 7,659 | 58.4% | 54.5% (n=1,914) | 58.4% under | +3.9 pp |
| away_shots_on_over_2_5 | 7,658 | 70.9% | — | 70.9% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_3_5 | 7,658 | 53.4% | — | 53.4% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_4_5 | 7,658 | 36.9% | — | 36.9% over | — |
| away_shots_on_over_5_5 | 7,658 | 23.8% | — | 23.8% over | — |
| away_shots_on_under_2_5 | 7,658 | 29.1% | — | 29.1% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_3_5 | 7,658 | 46.6% | — | 46.6% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_4_5 | 7,658 | 63.1% | — | 63.1% under | — |
| away_shots_on_under_5_5 | 7,658 | 76.2% | — | 76.2% under | — |
| home_shots_on_over_2_5 | 7,658 | 82.8% | — | 82.8% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_3_5 | 7,658 | 69.2% | — | 69.2% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_4_5 | 7,658 | 53.4% | — | 53.4% over | — |
| home_shots_on_over_5_5 | 7,658 | 38.4% | — | 38.4% over | — |
| home_shots_on_under_2_5 | 7,658 | 17.2% | — | 17.2% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_3_5 | 7,658 | 30.8% | — | 30.8% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_4_5 | 7,658 | 46.6% | — | 46.6% under | — |
| home_shots_on_under_5_5 | 7,658 | 61.6% | — | 61.6% under | — |
| total_corners_total_over_10_5 | 7,656 | 38.8% | 40.6% (n=4,306) | 38.8% over | -1.8 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_11_5 | 7,656 | 29.3% | 31.8% (n=4,067) | 29.3% over | -2.5 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_12_5 | 7,656 | 20.9% | 23.7% (n=3,642) | 20.9% over | -2.8 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_8_5 | 7,656 | 61.7% | 62.6% (n=4,254) | 61.7% over | -0.9 pp |
| total_corners_total_over_9_5 | 7,656 | 50.3% | 51.1% (n=4,468) | 50.3% over | -0.8 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_10_5 | 7,656 | 61.2% | 59.3% (n=4,272) | 61.2% under | +1.9 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_11_5 | 7,656 | 70.7% | 68.1% (n=4,047) | 70.7% under | +2.6 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_12_5 | 7,656 | 79.1% | 76.3% (n=3,630) | 79.1% under | +2.8 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_8_5 | 7,656 | 38.3% | 37.4% (n=4,276) | 38.3% under | +0.9 pp |
| total_corners_total_under_9_5 | 7,656 | 49.7% | 48.8% (n=4,470) | 49.7% under | +0.9 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_3_5 | 7,655 | 57.9% | 57.3% (n=3,580) | 57.9% over | +0.6 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_4_5 | 7,655 | 42.9% | 44.5% (n=3,816) | 42.9% over | -1.6 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_5_5 | 7,655 | 29.8% | 31.7% (n=3,488) | 29.8% over | -1.9 pp |
| away_corners_total_over_6_5 | 7,655 | 19.6% | 21.3% (n=3,020) | 19.6% over | -1.7 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_3_5 | 7,655 | 42.1% | 45.1% (n=2,789) | 42.1% under | -3.0 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_4_5 | 7,655 | 57.1% | 54.7% (n=3,080) | 57.1% under | +2.4 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_5_5 | 7,655 | 70.2% | 66.5% (n=2,307) | 70.2% under | +3.7 pp |
| away_corners_total_under_6_5 | 7,655 | 80.4% | 76.7% (n=1,546) | 80.4% under | +3.7 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_3_5 | 7,655 | 71.1% | 69.2% (n=3,023) | 71.1% over | +1.9 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_4_5 | 7,655 | 57.4% | 56.8% (n=3,651) | 57.4% over | +0.6 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_5_5 | 7,655 | 43.9% | 45.0% (n=3,738) | 43.9% over | -1.1 pp |
| home_corners_total_over_6_5 | 7,655 | 31.2% | 33.2% (n=3,432) | 31.2% over | -2.0 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_3_5 | 7,655 | 28.9% | 33.5% (n=1,812) | 28.9% under | -4.6 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_4_5 | 7,655 | 42.6% | 44.6% (n=2,872) | 42.6% under | -2.0 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_5_5 | 7,655 | 56.1% | 53.9% (n=2,926) | 56.1% under | +2.2 pp |
| home_corners_total_under_6_5 | 7,655 | 68.8% | 65.2% (n=2,296) | 68.8% under | +3.6 pp |
| player_cards_yellow_over_0_5 | 7,619 | 14.4% | — | 10.8% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_under_1_5 | 7,615 | 90.0% | — | 80.6% under | — |
| player_fouls_committed_under_0_5 | 7,593 | 68.0% | — | 51.8% under | — |
| most_fouls_total | 7,593 | 52.6% | — | 48.9% away | — |
| player_tackles_total_under_0_5 | 7,576 | 68.4% | — | 46.6% under | — |
| total_fouls_total_over_19_5 | 7,575 | 76.4% | 71.4% (n=28) | 76.4% over | +5.0 pp |
| total_fouls_total_over_21_5 | 7,575 | 64.2% | 53.6% (n=125) | 64.2% over | +10.6 pp |
| total_fouls_total_over_23_5 | 7,575 | 50.4% | 44.0% (n=175) | 50.4% over | +6.4 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_19_5 | 7,575 | 23.6% | 28.6% (n=28) | 23.6% under | -5.0 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_21_5 | 7,575 | 35.8% | 46.4% (n=125) | 35.8% under | -10.6 pp |
| total_fouls_total_under_23_5 | 7,575 | 49.6% | 56.0% (n=175) | 49.6% under | -6.4 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_10_5 | 7,574 | 63.6% | 53.9% (n=152) | 63.6% over | +9.7 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_11_5 | 7,574 | 53.5% | 44.5% (n=245) | 53.5% over | +9.0 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_12_5 | 7,574 | 43.3% | 50.3% (n=286) | 43.3% over | -7.0 pp |
| away_fouls_total_over_9_5 | 7,574 | 72.8% | 65.5% (n=55) | 72.8% over | +7.3 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_10_5 | 7,574 | 36.4% | 46.1% (n=152) | 36.4% under | -9.7 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_11_5 | 7,574 | 46.5% | 55.5% (n=245) | 46.5% under | -9.0 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_12_5 | 7,574 | 56.7% | 49.7% (n=286) | 56.7% under | +7.0 pp |
| away_fouls_total_under_9_5 | 7,574 | 27.2% | 34.5% (n=55) | 27.2% under | -7.3 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_10_5 | 7,574 | 59.9% | 52.2% (n=182) | 59.9% over | +7.7 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_11_5 | 7,574 | 49.8% | 49.0% (n=286) | 49.8% over | +0.8 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_12_5 | 7,574 | 40.2% | 46.9% (n=256) | 40.2% over | -6.7 pp |
| home_fouls_total_over_9_5 | 7,574 | 69.8% | 59.0% (n=78) | 69.8% over | +10.8 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_10_5 | 7,574 | 40.1% | 47.8% (n=182) | 40.1% under | -7.7 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_11_5 | 7,574 | 50.2% | 51.0% (n=286) | 50.2% under | -0.8 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_12_5 | 7,574 | 59.8% | 53.1% (n=256) | 59.8% under | +6.7 pp |
| home_fouls_total_under_9_5 | 7,574 | 30.2% | 41.0% (n=78) | 30.2% under | -10.8 pp |
| player_tackles_total_under_1_5 | 7,572 | 87.9% | — | 72.5% under | — |
| most_shots_total | 7,569 | 57.0% | — | 60.1% home | — |
| total_shots_total_over_22_5 | 7,562 | 73.0% | 74.2% (n=868) | 73.0% over | -1.2 pp |
| total_shots_total_over_25_5 | 7,562 | 54.8% | 58.3% (n=1,503) | 54.8% over | -3.5 pp |
| total_shots_total_over_28_5 | 7,562 | 36.6% | 44.2% (n=1,320) | 36.6% over | -7.6 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_22_5 | 7,562 | 27.0% | 25.8% (n=868) | 27.0% under | +1.2 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_25_5 | 7,562 | 45.2% | 41.7% (n=1,503) | 45.2% under | +3.5 pp |
| total_shots_total_under_28_5 | 7,562 | 63.4% | 55.8% (n=1,320) | 63.4% under | +7.6 pp |
| away_shots_total_over_11_5 | 7,561 | 49.2% | — | 49.2% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_13_5 | 7,561 | 34.2% | — | 34.2% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_15_5 | 7,561 | 22.2% | — | 22.2% over | — |
| away_shots_total_over_9_5 | 7,561 | 65.6% | — | 65.6% over | — |
| away_shots_total_under_11_5 | 7,561 | 50.8% | — | 50.8% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_13_5 | 7,561 | 65.8% | — | 65.8% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_15_5 | 7,561 | 77.8% | — | 77.8% under | — |
| away_shots_total_under_9_5 | 7,561 | 34.4% | — | 34.4% under | — |
| home_shots_total_over_11_5 | 7,561 | 68.6% | — | 68.6% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_13_5 | 7,561 | 54.1% | — | 54.1% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_15_5 | 7,561 | 40.0% | — | 40.0% over | — |
| home_shots_total_over_9_5 | 7,561 | 81.7% | — | 81.7% over | — |
| home_shots_total_under_11_5 | 7,561 | 31.4% | — | 31.4% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_13_5 | 7,561 | 45.9% | — | 45.9% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_15_5 | 7,561 | 60.0% | — | 60.0% under | — |
| home_shots_total_under_9_5 | 7,561 | 18.3% | — | 18.3% under | — |
| most_saves | 7,485 | 47.6% | — | 51.8% away | — |
| player_shots_on_over_0_5 | 7,465 | 48.6% | — | 22.1% over | — |
| player_shots_on_over_1_5 | 7,461 | 19.2% | — | 5.3% over | — |
| player_shots_on_over_2_5 | 7,461 | 6.2% | — | 1.2% over | — |
| total_saves_over_5_5 | 7,457 | 55.3% | — | 55.3% over | — |
| total_saves_over_6_5 | 7,457 | 41.3% | — | 41.3% over | — |
| total_saves_over_7_5 | 7,457 | 27.6% | — | 27.6% over | — |
| total_saves_under_5_5 | 7,457 | 44.7% | — | 44.7% under | — |
| total_saves_under_6_5 | 7,457 | 58.7% | — | 58.7% under | — |
| total_saves_under_7_5 | 7,457 | 72.4% | — | 72.4% under | — |
| away_saves_over_1_5 | 7,456 | 80.9% | — | 80.9% over | — |
| away_saves_over_2_5 | 7,456 | 62.8% | — | 62.8% over | — |
| away_saves_over_3_5 | 7,456 | 42.4% | — | 42.4% over | — |
| away_saves_over_4_5 | 7,456 | 26.3% | — | 26.3% over | — |
| away_saves_under_1_5 | 7,456 | 19.1% | — | 19.1% under | — |
| away_saves_under_2_5 | 7,456 | 37.2% | — | 37.2% under | — |
| away_saves_under_3_5 | 7,456 | 57.6% | — | 57.6% under | — |
| away_saves_under_4_5 | 7,456 | 73.7% | — | 73.7% under | — |
| home_saves_over_1_5 | 7,456 | 71.1% | — | 71.1% over | — |
| home_saves_over_2_5 | 7,456 | 48.7% | — | 48.7% over | — |
| home_saves_over_3_5 | 7,456 | 30.1% | — | 30.1% over | — |
| home_saves_over_4_5 | 7,456 | 16.6% | — | 16.6% over | — |
| home_saves_under_1_5 | 7,456 | 28.9% | — | 28.9% under | — |
| home_saves_under_2_5 | 7,456 | 51.3% | — | 51.3% under | — |
| home_saves_under_3_5 | 7,456 | 69.9% | — | 69.9% under | — |
| home_saves_under_4_5 | 7,456 | 83.4% | — | 83.4% under | — |
| player_shots_total_over_0_5 | 7,443 | 74.4% | — | 42.2% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_3_5 | 7,427 | 13.9% | — | 5.4% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_3_5 | 7,413 | 14.7% | — | 3.0% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_2_5 | 7,410 | 27.2% | — | 12.7% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_0_5 | 7,409 | 72.9% | — | 53.4% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_2_5 | 7,407 | 28.3% | — | 7.5% over | — |
| player_shots_total_over_1_5 | 7,406 | 49.6% | — | 18.0% over | — |
| player_tackles_total_over_1_5 | 7,401 | 48.0% | — | 27.5% over | — |
| player_duels_won_under_3_5 | 7,382 | 83.8% | — | 62.5% under | — |
| player_passes_key_over_0_5 | 7,286 | 71.4% | — | 39.6% over | — |
| most_offsides | 7,281 | 45.7% | — | 43.8% home | — |
| player_passes_key_over_1_5 | 7,280 | 43.7% | — | 15.9% over | — |
| player_passes_key_over_2_5 | 7,280 | 23.5% | — | 6.3% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_0_5 | 7,279 | 64.1% | — | 48.2% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_1_5 | 7,278 | 34.2% | — | 19.4% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_2_5 | 7,278 | 22.3% | — | 6.7% over | — |
| player_fouls_committed_over_2_5 | 7,277 | 14.9% | — | 6.5% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_0_5 | 7,277 | 71.5% | — | 44.7% over | — |
| player_duels_won_over_3_5 | 7,276 | 64.0% | — | 37.5% over | — |
| player_fouls_drawn_over_1_5 | 7,276 | 42.4% | — | 18.2% over | — |
| player_duels_won_over_5_5 | 7,274 | 39.6% | — | 17.2% over | — |
| player_duels_won_over_7_5 | 7,273 | 20.2% | — | 6.6% over | — |
| away_offsides_over_0_5 | 7,199 | 79.8% | 76.5% (n=344) | 79.8% over | +3.3 pp |
| away_offsides_over_1_5 | 7,199 | 47.4% | 46.7% (n=668) | 47.4% over | +0.7 pp |
| away_offsides_over_2_5 | 7,199 | 24.0% | 26.2% (n=442) | 24.0% over | -2.2 pp |
| away_offsides_over_3_5 | 7,199 | 10.6% | 26.2% (n=126) | 10.6% over | -15.6 pp |
| away_offsides_under_0_5 | 7,199 | 20.2% | 23.5% (n=344) | 20.2% under | -3.3 pp |
| away_offsides_under_1_5 | 7,199 | 52.6% | 53.3% (n=668) | 52.6% under | -0.7 pp |
| away_offsides_under_2_5 | 7,199 | 76.0% | 73.8% (n=442) | 76.0% under | +2.2 pp |
| away_offsides_under_3_5 | 7,199 | 89.4% | 73.8% (n=126) | 89.4% under | +15.6 pp |
| home_offsides_over_0_5 | 7,199 | 82.4% | 78.9% (n=322) | 82.4% over | +3.5 pp |
| home_offsides_over_1_5 | 7,199 | 51.9% | 52.2% (n=669) | 51.9% over | -0.3 pp |
| home_offsides_over_2_5 | 7,199 | 27.3% | 26.6% (n=444) | 27.3% over | +0.7 pp |
| home_offsides_over_3_5 | 7,199 | 13.3% | 23.3% (n=133) | 13.3% over | -10.0 pp |
| home_offsides_under_0_5 | 7,199 | 17.6% | 21.1% (n=322) | 17.6% under | -3.5 pp |
| home_offsides_under_1_5 | 7,199 | 48.1% | 47.8% (n=669) | 48.1% under | +0.3 pp |
| home_offsides_under_2_5 | 7,199 | 72.7% | 73.4% (n=444) | 72.7% under | -0.7 pp |
| home_offsides_under_3_5 | 7,199 | 86.7% | 76.7% (n=133) | 86.7% under | +10.0 pp |
| total_offsides_over_3_5 | 7,199 | 44.3% | 45.3% (n=569) | 44.3% over | -1.0 pp |
| total_offsides_over_4_5 | 7,199 | 27.5% | 28.3% (n=435) | 27.5% over | -0.8 pp |
| total_offsides_over_5_5 | 7,199 | 15.7% | 18.4% (n=376) | 15.7% over | -2.7 pp |
| total_offsides_under_3_5 | 7,199 | 55.7% | 54.7% (n=569) | 55.7% under | +1.0 pp |
| total_offsides_under_4_5 | 7,199 | 72.5% | 71.7% (n=435) | 72.5% under | +0.8 pp |
| total_offsides_under_5_5 | 7,199 | 84.3% | 81.6% (n=376) | 84.3% under | +2.7 pp |
| player_saves_under_5_5 | 7,108 | 93.5% | — | 92.2% under | — |
| player_saves_under_4_5 | 7,059 | 87.0% | — | 84.8% under | — |
| player_saves_under_3_5 | 6,988 | 77.0% | — | 73.7% under | — |
| player_saves_over_5_5 | 6,959 | 10.4% | — | 7.8% over | — |
| player_saves_under_2_5 | 6,877 | 62.4% | — | 58.6% under | — |
| player_saves_over_4_5 | 6,850 | 19.9% | — | 15.2% over | — |
| player_saves_under_1_5 | 6,836 | 47.6% | — | 42.8% under | — |
| player_saves_over_3_5 | 6,830 | 34.2% | — | 26.3% over | — |
| player_saves_over_1_5 | 6,816 | 72.3% | — | 57.2% over | — |
| player_saves_over_2_5 | 6,812 | 52.5% | — | 41.4% over | — |
| player_goals_conceded_under_1_5 | 5,958 | 88.6% | — | 77.4% under | — |
| player_goals_conceded_under_0_5 | 5,924 | 78.5% | — | 58.2% under | — |
| player_goals_conceded_over_0_5 | 5,656 | 63.3% | — | 41.8% over | — |
| player_goals_conceded_over_1_5 | 5,649 | 35.2% | — | 22.6% over | — |
| League | Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Best constant pick | Model − favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 1,142 | 99.9% | — | 99.4% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 996 | 99.9% | — | 98.1% under | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 993 | 99.8% | — | 97.8% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 967 | 99.6% | — | 96.3% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 966 | 93.6% | — | 88.9% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_tackles_total_under_3_5 | 790 | 98.7% | — | 95.3% under | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 755 | 95.6% | — | 87.4% under | — |
| FA Cup | clean_sheet | 750 | 24.4% | 29.3% (n=41) | 27.3% cs_home | -4.9 pp |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_tackles_total_under_3_5 | 750 | 97.6% | — | 92.4% under | — |
| FA Cup | win_to_nil | 745 | 20.1% | — | 22.9% win_home_nil | — |
| FA Cup | Team to score | 737 | 75.2% | — | 78.5% score_home | — |
| FA Cup | btts_result | 735 | 21.0% | — | 22.9% btts_no_home | — |
| FA Cup | correct_score | 733 | 6.8% | — | 8.6% cs_1_1 | — |
| FA Cup | asian_handicap | 719 | 24.1% | — | 33.7% ah_home_minus1 | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_fouls_drawn_under_2_5 | 715 | 99.2% | — | 93.3% under | — |
| FA Cup | Both teams to score | 713 | 54.0% | 53.1% (n=128) | 55.5% btts_yes | +0.9 pp |
| FA Cup | Total goals (over / under) | 712 | 94.9% | 88.2% (n=169) | 95.6% over_0_5 | +6.7 pp |
| FA Cup | away_team_goals | 708 | 77.4% | — | 81.2% away_under_2_5 | — |
| FA Cup | Double chance | 707 | 78.5% | 82.4% (n=176) | 80.0% dc_home_or_away | -3.9 pp |
| FA Cup | home_team_goals | 707 | 77.8% | — | 78.5% home_over_0_5 | — |
| FA Cup | goals_odd_even | 706 | 49.2% | 49.7% (n=191) | 50.7% even | -0.5 pp |
| FA Cup | Match result (1X2) | 706 | 55.9% | 54.8% (n=168) | 45.2% win_home | +1.1 pp |
| Major League Soccer | player_fouls_drawn_under_2_5 | 704 | 97.6% | — | 92.8% under | — |
| Serie A | player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 696 | 99.9% | — | 98.6% under | — |
| Super League | player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 675 | 94.4% | — | 89.3% under | — |
| Serie A | player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 656 | 99.4% | — | 97.0% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_shots_on_under_1_5 | 651 | 98.5% | — | 93.3% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_duels_won_under_7_5 | 650 | 98.8% | — | 95.7% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_passes_key_under_2_5 | 623 | 98.7% | — | 92.4% under | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_passes_key_under_2_5 | 622 | 98.9% | — | 94.9% under | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_fouls_committed_under_2_5 | 621 | 96.9% | — | 93.4% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_fouls_committed_under_2_5 | 618 | 97.6% | — | 93.2% under | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_duels_won_under_7_5 | 616 | 96.4% | — | 90.7% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_shots_on_under_0_5 | 597 | 89.3% | — | 76.5% under | — |
| Segunda División | player_shots_on_under_2_5 | 594 | 99.7% | — | 98.9% under | — |
| FA Cup | Draw no bet | 592 | 49.8% | — | 56.5% dnb_home | — |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | player_shots_on_under_1_5 | 580 | 98.3% | — | 95.9% under | — |
| Segunda División | player_shots_total_under_3_5 | 555 | 99.5% | — | 97.3% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_shots_total_under_2_5 | 551 | 98.7% | — | 92.0% under | — |
| Major League Soccer | player_tackles_total_under_2_5 | 548 | 96.7% | — | 87.9% under | — |
Showing the 40 largest of 84 league–market cells — the full set, including cells under the 500-pick threshold, is in the API. Cells with fewer than 500 settled picks are held back as too noisy to rank.
Hit rate is not a profitability claim: a picker can win often at short prices and still lose money at the offered odds. The price-aware view — flat-stake ROI at the closing price — is published on the scoreboard.
The rest of the trust estate: live calibration scoreboard · model changelog · rated-pick verdicts · pre-commitment ledger · methodology. Machine-readable: /api/track-record/leaderboard.
18+Hit rates are measured on settled predictions and say nothing certain about future fixtures; nothing here is betting advice. Probabilities and picks are odds to weigh, not promises. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.