Gameweek 11 deadline: Sat 21 Nov, 11:00 · in 10 d 9 h · GW11
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FPL Fixture Difficulty and Projected Points

Our FPL fixture difficulty ranks every Premier League club’s run across the next 6 fixtures, kindest first, and was last built on 10 November 2026. On that run Aston Villa have the kindest fixtures and Fulham the toughest. Difficulty comes from our own venue-adjusted team ratings, the same engine behind our public, settled track record, and every figure is a likelihood, not a promise: here is how it works.

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Updated 10 November 2026 · GW11 deadline: Sat 21 Nov, 11:00

Played Gameweeks

Every gameweek keeps its permanent page: the fixture difficulty it was played under and how our sealed picks actually scored.

GW1 5 of 12 picks hitGW2 4 of 12 picks hitGW3 8 of 12 picks hitGW4 7 of 12 picks hitGW5 6 of 12 picks hitGW6 4 of 12 picks hitGW7 5 of 12 picks hitGW8 6 of 12 picks hitGW9 10 of 12 picks hitGW10 9 of 12 picks hit

FPL Fixture Difficulty: Which Clubs Have the Easiest Run?

Sorted kindest run first. 1 = easiest, 5 = hardest; hover any cell to compare with FPL’s own FDR.

Fixture difficulty by club and gameweek: 1 is the easiest run, 5 the hardest, from the TACTIX Elo model
ClubGW11GW12GW13GW14GW15GW16Avg
Aston VillaSUN (H)IPS (A)EVE (H)CRY (H)COV (A)CHE (A)1.67
Crystal PalaceCOV (A)HUL (H)CHE (A)AVL (A)MUN (H)SUN (A)2.17
BrightonHUL (A)NEW (H)BOU (A)NFO (A)EVE (H)IPS (H)2.67
LiverpoolMUN (H)EVE (A)SUN (H)CHE (A)LEE (H)TOT (H)2.67
BournemouthNFO (H)FUL (A)BHA (H)HUL (H)ARS (A)COV (H)2.83
Coventry CityCRY (H)LEE (A)IPS (H)MUN (A)AVL (H)BOU (A)2.83
LeedsCHE (A)COV (H)MCI (A)IPS (H)LIV (A)FUL (H)2.83
Man UtdLIV (A)BRE (H)NEW (A)COV (H)CRY (A)ARS (A)2.83
SpursIPS (H)SUN (A)FUL (H)ARS (H)HUL (A)LIV (A)2.83
SunderlandAVL (A)TOT (H)LIV (A)NEW (A)NFO (H)CRY (H)2.83
Man CityFUL (H)ARS (A)LEE (H)BRE (A)CHE (H)HUL (H)3
NewcastleARS (H)BHA (A)MUN (H)SUN (H)IPS (A)BRE (A)3
BrentfordEVE (H)MUN (A)ARS (H)MCI (H)FUL (A)NEW (H)3.17
ArsenalNEW (A)MCI (H)BRE (A)TOT (A)BOU (H)MUN (H)3.33
ChelseaLEE (H)NFO (A)CRY (H)LIV (H)MCI (A)AVL (H)3.33
Ipswich TownTOT (A)AVL (H)COV (A)LEE (A)NEW (H)BHA (A)3.33
Nott'm ForestBOU (A)CHE (H)HUL (A)BHA (H)SUN (A)EVE (H)3.33
Hull CityBHA (H)CRY (A)NFO (H)BOU (A)TOT (H)MCI (A)3.5
EvertonBRE (A)LIV (H)AVL (A)FUL (H)BHA (A)NFO (A)3.67
FulhamMCI (A)BOU (H)TOT (A)EVE (A)BRE (H)LEE (A)4
Expected goals for by club and gameweek, from the TACTIX match model
ClubGW11GW12GW13GW14GW15GW16
Aston VillaSUN (H) 1.7†IPS (A) 1.7†EVE (H) 1.6†CRY (H) 1.8†COV (A) 1.7†CHE (A) 1.6†
Crystal PalaceCOV (A) 1.5†HUL (H) 1.6†CHE (A) 1.4†AVL (A) 1.4†MUN (H) 1.5†SUN (A) 1.5†
BrightonHUL (A) 1.8†NEW (H) 1.8†BOU (A) 1.6†NFO (A) 1.8†EVE (H) 1.8†IPS (H) 1.9†
LiverpoolMUN (H) 1.8†EVE (A) 1.6†SUN (H) 1.8†CHE (A) 1.7†LEE (H) 1.7†TOT (H) 1.7†
BournemouthNFO (H) 1.7†FUL (A) 1.7†BHA (H) 1.6†HUL (H) 1.8†ARS (A) 1.4†COV (H) 1.8†
Coventry CityCRY (H) 1.6†LEE (A) 1.4†IPS (H) 1.6†MUN (A) 1.5†AVL (H) 1.5†BOU (A) 1.4†
LeedsCHE (A) 1.6†COV (H) 1.7†MCI (A) 1.5†IPS (H) 1.7†LIV (A) 1.5†FUL (H) 1.7†
Man UtdLIV (A) 1.4†BRE (H) 1.5†NEW (A) 1.5†COV (H) 1.6†CRY (A) 1.6†ARS (A) 1.3†
SpursIPS (H) 1.7†SUN (A) 1.6†FUL (H) 1.6†ARS (H) 1.4†HUL (A) 1.6†LIV (A) 1.5†
SunderlandAVL (A) 1.4†TOT (H) 1.5†LIV (A) 1.4†NEW (A) 1.5†NFO (H) 1.6†CRY (H) 1.7†
Man CityFUL (H) 1.7†ARS (A) 1.4†LEE (H) 1.6†BRE (A) 1.6†CHE (H) 1.7†HUL (H) 1.7†
NewcastleARS (H) 1.4†BHA (A) 1.4†MUN (H) 1.6†SUN (H) 1.6†IPS (A) 1.6†BRE (A) 1.5†
BrentfordEVE (H) 1.6†MUN (A) 1.6†ARS (H) 1.5†MCI (H) 1.6†FUL (A) 1.6†NEW (H) 1.7†
ArsenalNEW (A) 1.8†MCI (H) 1.7†BRE (A) 1.7†TOT (A) 1.8†BOU (H) 1.7†MUN (H) 1.9†
ChelseaLEE (H) 1.6†NFO (A) 1.6†CRY (H) 1.7†LIV (H) 1.5†MCI (A) 1.5†AVL (H) 1.6†
Ipswich TownTOT (A) 1.4†AVL (H) 1.5†COV (A) 1.5†LEE (A) 1.4†NEW (H) 1.6†BHA (A) 1.3†
Nott'm ForestBOU (A) 1.4†CHE (H) 1.6†HUL (A) 1.6†BHA (H) 1.4†SUN (A) 1.6†EVE (H) 1.6†
Hull CityBHA (H) 1.4†CRY (A) 1.6†NFO (H) 1.6†BOU (A) 1.4†TOT (H) 1.6†MCI (A) 1.4†
EvertonBRE (A) 1.5†LIV (H) 1.5†AVL (A) 1.5†FUL (H) 1.6†BHA (A) 1.4†NFO (A) 1.6†
FulhamMCI (A) 1.4†BOU (H) 1.5†TOT (A) 1.5†EVE (A) 1.5†BRE (H) 1.6†LEE (A) 1.5†
Clean-sheet chance by club and gameweek, from the TACTIX match model
ClubGW11GW12GW13GW14GW15GW16
Aston VillaSUN (H) 24%†IPS (A) 23%†EVE (H) 22%†CRY (H) 25%†COV (A) 22%†CHE (A) 21%†
Crystal PalaceCOV (A) 19%†HUL (H) 20%†CHE (A) 18%†AVL (A) 17%†MUN (H) 20%†SUN (A) 19%†
BrightonHUL (A) 24%†NEW (H) 26%†BOU (A) 21%†NFO (A) 24%†EVE (H) 25%†IPS (H) 27%†
LiverpoolMUN (H) 25%†EVE (A) 22%†SUN (H) 25%†CHE (A) 22%†LEE (H) 23%†TOT (H) 23%†
BournemouthNFO (H) 24%†FUL (A) 22%†BHA (H) 20%†HUL (H) 25%†ARS (A) 18%†COV (H) 26%†
Coventry CityCRY (H) 22%†LEE (A) 18%†IPS (H) 22%†MUN (A) 19%†AVL (H) 19%†BOU (A) 16%†
LeedsCHE (A) 21%†COV (H) 24%†MCI (A) 19%†IPS (H) 24%†LIV (A) 19%†FUL (H) 22%†
Man UtdLIV (A) 17%†BRE (H) 20%†NEW (A) 20%†COV (H) 22%†CRY (A) 21%†ARS (A) 15%†
SpursIPS (H) 24%†SUN (A) 22%†FUL (H) 22%†ARS (H) 17%†HUL (A) 21%†LIV (A) 18%†
SunderlandAVL (A) 18%†TOT (H) 19%†LIV (A) 17%†NEW (A) 19%†NFO (H) 20%†CRY (H) 23%†
Man CityFUL (H) 23%†ARS (A) 18%†LEE (H) 22%†BRE (A) 21%†CHE (H) 23%†HUL (H) 24%†
NewcastleARS (H) 16%†BHA (A) 16%†MUN (H) 21%†SUN (H) 22%†IPS (A) 21%†BRE (A) 19%†
BrentfordEVE (H) 21%†MUN (A) 21%†ARS (H) 18%†MCI (H) 20%†FUL (A) 21%†NEW (H) 23%†
ArsenalNEW (A) 25%†MCI (H) 24%†BRE (A) 23%†TOT (A) 23%†BOU (H) 23%†MUN (H) 27%†
ChelseaLEE (H) 21%†NFO (A) 20%†CRY (H) 24%†LIV (H) 19%†MCI (A) 19%†AVL (H) 20%†
Ipswich TownTOT (A) 18%†AVL (H) 18%†COV (A) 20%†LEE (A) 18%†NEW (H) 20%†BHA (A) 15%†
Nott'm ForestBOU (A) 18%†CHE (H) 21%†HUL (A) 21%†BHA (H) 17%†SUN (A) 21%†EVE (H) 20%†
Hull CityBHA (H) 17%†CRY (A) 21%†NFO (H) 20%†BOU (A) 17%†TOT (H) 20%†MCI (A) 18%†
EvertonBRE (A) 20%†LIV (H) 19%†AVL (A) 19%†FUL (H) 22%†BHA (A) 17%†NFO (A) 21%†
FulhamMCI (A) 18%†BOU (H) 19%†TOT (A) 19%†EVE (A) 19%†BRE (H) 20%†LEE (A) 19%†
From the TACTIX match model: each club’s expected goals in the fixture, and its chance of a clean sheet (the model’s clean-sheet forecast where it has one, otherwise from expected goals against). Shaded by fifths across these 6 gameweeks — the darkest green is the best fifth. † 120 of 120 fixture sides are not forecast by the match model yet; their figure is fitted from the TACTIX team ratings.
1 easiest2345 hardest· venue-adjusted, from the TACTIX team ratings (hover a cell to compare with FPL’s own FDR)

Projected Points

Player projections are part of TACTIX Pro
Projected points for every position, powered by the same model as our public, settled track record — with start and clean-sheet likelihoods per player.
See what Pro includes

Lines You Can Quote

Aston Villa have the kindest opening run in the Premier League — average TACTIX fixture difficulty 1.67/5 over the next 6 gameweeks.
Fulham face the toughest schedule of any club: 4/5 across their next 6 fixtures.
Free to reuse with credit and a link: “TACTIX FPL model, tactix.football/fpl”.

Method, Honestly

Difficulty is our venue-adjusted team rating for the opponent, re-bucketed into quintiles across the current fixture set — not the generic FDR. Newly promoted clubs are flagged and carry an adjusted Championship rating until the model has real Premier League matches to learn from. How the projections are built is stated under the projection table, and how they have scored — beside FPL’s own projection, on the same players — is on the accuracy page. Nothing on this page is betting advice. If you gamble, you must be 18+; please do so responsibly — see responsible gambling, or for free, confidential help BeGambleAware.

TACTIX is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the Premier League. Fantasy Premier League and FPL are trademarks of the Premier League.