The TACTIX Supercomputer simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times with the same Dixon-Coles + Elo match engine behind our public, settled track record. Every figure below is a likelihood estimate, never a promise — here is exactly how it works.
Latest run: 9 November 2026 · refreshed after every round of fixtures
Our supercomputer predictions come from 10,000 simulations of every remaining fixture in six leagues, last run on 9 November 2026. In the Premier League, Arsenal are the most likely champions at 76.1%; the tables below give every club’s chance of the title, the European places, promotion where it applies, and relegation.
How Do the Supercomputer Predictions Work?
Each remaining match is priced as a full spread of possible scores by the same match model that publishes a probability for every fixture on TACTIX. The rest of the season is then played out again and again, and each club’s chances are simply how often it finished in each place. Nothing is adjusted by hand, and a club’s number moves only when results or team strength move it.
Read a percentage as a likelihood over many possible seasons, not as a forecast of one. A club on a small title chance still wins the league in some of those simulated seasons, and a favourite still misses out in others. That is why the figures are shown with the number of simulations behind them and the date they were run.
You can check whether the model deserves that trust: its probabilities are graded against real results on the accuracy page and the scoreboard, losing calls included, and the methodology sets out the match model in full. For a single league in more depth, each one has its own predicted table on the blog.
Premier League 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 280 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Top 4
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Arsenal
83
76.1%
99.8%
0%
▲
2
Manchester City
73.9
15.4%
94.7%
0%
▼
3
Brighton
70.7
7.7%
89.3%
0%
▲
4
Liverpool
61.5
0.5%
40.8%
<0.1%
–
5
Brentford
56.6
<0.1%
16.4%
0.2%
–
6
Aston Villa
55.2
<0.1%
11.3%
0.6%
–
7
Bournemouth
55.1
<0.1%
11.3%
0.6%
–
8
Chelsea
54.7
<0.1%
10.7%
0.5%
–
9
Leeds
54
0%
9.2%
0.8%
–
10
Everton
53.3
<0.1%
7.1%
0.9%
–
11
Manchester United
51.6
<0.1%
4.9%
2.1%
–
12
Nottingham Forest
49.4
<0.1%
2.2%
3.2%
▲
13
Newcastle
47.9
0%
1.3%
5.8%
▲
14
Fulham
45.9
0%
0.6%
8.4%
▲
15
Hull City
43.4
0%
0.2%
16.3%
▼
16
Tottenham
41.7
0%
0.1%
24.6%
▼
17
Ipswich
39
0%
<0.1%
41.1%
▼
18
Sunderland
38.2
0%
<0.1%
45.4%
▲
19
Crystal Palace
33.7
0%
0%
74.0%
▲
20
Coventry
33.5
0%
0%
75.4%
▼
Lines You Can Quote
Arsenal won the Premier League title in 76.1% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Arsenal 76.1% vs Manchester City 15.4% — a 60.7-point difference in title likelihood.
3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
Coventry were relegated in 75.4% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the Premier League.
Championship 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 372 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Promotion
Playoff
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Southampton
87.1
40.9%
64.1%
34.9%
0%
▼
2
Wolves
83.3
19.8%
40.0%
55.2%
0%
–
3
West Ham
81.6
14.4%
32.9%
60.7%
0%
▼
4
Middlesbrough
81.7
14.7%
31.4%
61.3%
0%
▲
5
Birmingham
77.5
5.1%
14.1%
68.4%
0%
▲
6
Norwich
73.7
2.1%
6.3%
60.4%
<0.1%
▲
7
Swansea
72.1
1.0%
3.6%
51.8%
<0.1%
–
8
West Brom
71.6
0.9%
2.8%
50.1%
<0.1%
▲
9
Sheffield Utd
70.7
0.6%
2.5%
46.1%
<0.1%
–
10
Stoke City
67.6
0.2%
0.8%
27.8%
<0.1%
–
11
QPR
66.5
0.2%
0.7%
25.6%
0.2%
–
12
Millwall
65.9
0.2%
0.5%
23.1%
0.2%
–
13
Portsmouth
62.8
<0.1%
0.1%
12.8%
0.6%
–
14
Wrexham
62.6
0%
0.1%
12.3%
0.7%
–
15
Blackburn
59.6
0%
<0.1%
5.4%
1.8%
▲
16
Cardiff
55.4
0%
<0.1%
1.7%
6.7%
▲
17
Bristol City
55.1
0%
0%
1.3%
7.2%
▼
18
Burnley
52.6
0%
0%
0.7%
12.8%
▲
19
Derby
49.8
0%
0%
0.1%
24.6%
▲
20
Watford
48.5
0%
0%
0.1%
30.5%
▼
21
Bolton
48
0%
0%
<0.1%
33.9%
▼
22
Charlton
47.4
0%
0%
<0.1%
36.1%
▲
23
Lincoln
43.5
0%
0%
0%
61.0%
▼
24
Preston
38.4
0%
0%
0%
83.7%
▲
Lines You Can Quote
Southampton finished top of the Championship in 40.9% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Southampton 40.9% vs Wolves 19.8% — a 21.1-point difference in title likelihood.
7 of 24 Championship clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
Preston were relegated in 83.7% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the Championship.
La Liga 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 261 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Top 4
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Barcelona
94.6
88.8%
>99.9%
0%
▲
2
Real Madrid
84.9
10.9%
99.9%
0%
▼
3
Atletico Madrid
72.8
0.3%
90.7%
0%
▼
4
Real Betis
68
<0.1%
71.1%
0%
–
5
Real Sociedad
60.4
0%
20.5%
<0.1%
–
6
Villarreal
56.8
0%
10.7%
0.3%
–
7
Athletic Club
51.3
0%
2.5%
2.0%
–
8
Celta Vigo
50.5
0%
1.6%
2.2%
–
9
Sevilla
50
0%
1.1%
2.6%
–
10
Rayo Vallecano
47.9
0%
0.6%
6.1%
▼
11
Deportivo La Coruna
47.2
0%
0.5%
6.4%
▲
12
Alaves
44.9
0%
0.3%
12.2%
▲
13
Levante
44.7
0%
0.2%
13.2%
▲
14
Elche
43.9
0%
0.2%
15.7%
▼
15
Osasuna
43.5
0%
0.1%
18.0%
▲
16
Espanyol
43.3
0%
0.1%
17.6%
▲
17
Valencia
42.5
0%
<0.1%
22.3%
▼
18
Getafe
40.8
0%
<0.1%
31.1%
▼
19
Racing Santander
37.9
0%
<0.1%
52.6%
▲
20
Malaga
25.5
0%
0%
97.8%
–
Lines You Can Quote
Barcelona won the La Liga title in 88.8% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Barcelona 88.8% vs Real Madrid 10.9% — a 77.8-point difference in title likelihood.
2 of 20 La Liga clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
Malaga were relegated in 97.8% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the La Liga.
1 club made the top 4 in over 99.9% of simulations.
Bundesliga 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 225 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Top 4
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Bayern München
80
87.4%
>99.9%
0%
–
2
Borussia Dortmund
70.4
11.0%
97.2%
0%
–
3
RB Leipzig
61.9
1.1%
76.1%
<0.1%
–
4
Bayer Leverkusen
56.5
0.2%
40.7%
<0.1%
–
5
SC Freiburg
55.9
0.2%
38.1%
<0.1%
–
6
VfB Stuttgart
54.7
<0.1%
31.2%
0.1%
–
7
1899 Hoffenheim
49.2
<0.1%
8.6%
0.8%
▲
8
Werder Bremen
43.6
0%
1.6%
5.2%
–
9
FSV Mainz 05
43.3
0%
1.7%
6.1%
–
10
Eintracht Frankfurt
43.1
0%
1.3%
7.1%
▲
11
SC Paderborn 07
42.3
<0.1%
1.0%
7.3%
▲
12
SV Elversberg
42
0%
1.2%
9.0%
–
13
FC Augsburg
41.6
0%
0.9%
9.5%
▼
14
Hamburger SV
40.7
0%
0.4%
13.0%
▲
15
1. FC Köln
35.2
0%
<0.1%
38.4%
▲
16
Union Berlin
32.6
0%
<0.1%
58.8%
▼
17
Borussia Mönchengladbach
32.1
0%
<0.1%
60.4%
▼
18
FC Schalke 04
27.7
0%
0%
84.2%
▼
Lines You Can Quote
Bayern München won the Bundesliga title in 87.4% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Bayern München 87.4% vs Borussia Dortmund 11.0% — a 76.4-point difference in title likelihood.
3 of 18 Bundesliga clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
FC Schalke 04 were relegated in 84.2% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the Bundesliga.
1 club made the top 4 in over 99.9% of simulations.
Serie A 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 270 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Top 4
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Inter
84.8
60.9%
98.9%
0%
▲
2
AS Roma
80.5
28.9%
95.6%
0%
▲
3
Como
75
7.5%
80.5%
0%
▼
4
Lazio
69.2
1.5%
46.4%
0%
–
5
AC Milan
68.7
1.0%
43.2%
0%
–
6
Juventus
65
0.2%
23.2%
0%
–
7
Napoli
60
<0.1%
7.6%
<0.1%
–
8
Frosinone
57.2
<0.1%
3.3%
<0.1%
–
9
Atalanta
52.7
<0.1%
0.7%
0.3%
–
10
Bologna
52.3
0%
0.5%
0.3%
–
11
Cagliari
47.6
0%
<0.1%
2.1%
–
12
Genoa
47.4
0%
0.1%
2.2%
–
13
Torino
44.9
0%
<0.1%
4.9%
–
14
Fiorentina
44.1
0%
<0.1%
6.4%
▲
15
Sassuolo
40.6
0%
0%
16.9%
▼
16
Udinese
36.6
0%
0%
33.7%
–
17
Parma
36.2
0%
0%
36.3%
▼
18
Lecce
35.2
0%
0%
44.4%
▲
19
Monza
32.3
0%
0%
63.3%
▼
20
Venezia
26.9
0%
0%
89.2%
▲
Lines You Can Quote
Inter won the Serie A title in 60.9% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Inter 60.9% vs AS Roma 28.9% — a 32.0-point difference in title likelihood.
5 of 20 Serie A clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
Venezia were relegated in 89.2% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the Serie A.
Ligue 1 2026-27
10,000 season simulations · 216 fixtures still to play · updated 9 November 2026
#
Club
Avg pts
Title
Top 3
Relegation
Outlook
Δ
1
Paris Saint Germain
72.8
86.4%
98.3%
0%
▲
2
Lille
59.3
4.7%
48.2%
0%
▲
3
Lyon
56.6
2.2%
32.7%
<0.1%
▼
4
Paris FC
56.3
2.3%
29.6%
<0.1%
▲
5
Lens
55.2
1.7%
25.0%
<0.1%
▼
6
Marseille
54.8
1.2%
23.5%
<0.1%
–
7
Monaco
52.4
0.6%
12.8%
0.1%
–
8
Rennes
52.2
0.4%
12.0%
<0.1%
–
9
Lorient
51.3
0.4%
9.5%
0.1%
–
10
Stade Brestois 29
48.4
0.1%
4.7%
0.3%
▲
11
Toulouse
46
<0.1%
2.0%
1.2%
▲
12
Strasbourg
44.5
<0.1%
1.0%
2.5%
–
13
Nice
43.8
<0.1%
0.8%
2.5%
▲
14
Auxerre
38.3
0%
0.1%
14.4%
–
15
Angers
31
0%
0%
58.1%
▼
16
Le Mans
30.9
0%
<0.1%
57.5%
▲
17
Estac Troyes
27.6
0%
0%
80.1%
▼
18
Le Havre
26.5
0%
0%
82.9%
▼
Lines You Can Quote
Paris Saint Germain won the Ligue 1 title in 86.4% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season.
The gap at the top: Paris Saint Germain 86.4% vs Lille 4.7% — a 81.7-point difference in title likelihood.
6 of 18 Ligue 1 clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations.
Le Havre were relegated in 82.9% of simulations — the highest relegation likelihood in the Ligue 1.
Want the full picture behind these headlines — every club’s complete finishing-position distribution and percentile bands? That drill-down is part of TACTIX Pro.
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