La Liga xG table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-17 · 79 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 17 October 2026, Villarreal have 5.8 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in La Liga on expected points. Real Betis are the luckiest (6.8 more). Barcelona lead the La Liga on 24 points; they also top the expected-points column on 20.3 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Barcelona	8	24	20.3	+3.7
2	Atletico Madrid	8	19	14.5	+4.5
3	Real Betis	8	19	12.2	+6.8
4	Real Madrid	8	18	17.6	+0.4
5	Sevilla	8	14	10.5	+3.5
6	Real Sociedad	8	13	8.9	+4.1
7	Deportivo La Coruna	9	11	12.2	-1.2
8	Alaves	8	11	12.1	-1.1
9	Villarreal	8	8	13.8	-5.8
10	Espanyol	8	8	11.6	-3.6
11	Athletic Club	6	8	11.4	-3.4
12	Celta Vigo	8	8	9.8	-1.8
13	Osasuna	8	8	9.7	-1.7
14	Racing Santander	8	8	9.4	-1.4
15	Rayo Vallecano	7	8	8.0	0.0
16	Getafe	8	8	7.2	+0.8
17	Levante	8	7	8.1	-1.1
18	Elche	8	6	9.3	-3.3
19	Valencia	8	5	7.8	-2.8
20	Malaga	8	4	6.4	-2.4

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

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Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished La Liga match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).