Ligue 1 xG table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-18 · 58 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 18 October 2026, Le Havre have 3.9 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Ligue 1 on expected points. Monaco are the luckiest (5.9 more). Paris Saint Germain lead the Ligue 1 on 14 points; they also top the expected-points column on 13.4 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Paris Saint Germain	7	14	13.4	+0.6
2	Lille	7	14	10.2	+3.8
3	Monaco	6	14	8.1	+5.9
4	Rennes	6	13	9.6	+3.4
5	Paris FC	6	11	12.2	-1.2
6	Lyon	6	11	9.9	+1.1
7	Lens	7	10	11.8	-1.8
8	Stade Brestois 29	7	9	12.5	-3.5
9	Toulouse	7	9	12.5	-3.5
10	Lorient	6	8	7.4	+0.6
11	Nice	6	8	6.7	+1.3
12	Angers	6	7	7.6	-0.6
13	Strasbourg	7	7	6.1	+0.9
14	Marseille	6	6	7.0	-1.0
15	Auxerre	6	6	6.8	-0.8
16	Le Mans	7	6	6.6	-0.6
17	Estac Troyes	7	4	6.8	-2.8
18	Le Havre	6	2	5.9	-3.9

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Ligue 1 predictions Ligue 1 top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Ligue 1 match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).