Premier League xG table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-14 · 60 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 14 October 2026, Bournemouth have 6.2 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in the Premier League on expected points. Manchester City are the luckiest (6.7 more). Manchester City lead the Premier League on 18 points; Arsenal top the expected-points column on 11.6 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Manchester City	6	18	11.3	+6.7
2	Arsenal	6	15	11.6	+3.4
3	Brighton	6	13	11.0	+2.0
4	Everton	6	10	9.8	+0.2
5	Brentford	6	10	9.3	+0.7
6	Chelsea	6	10	7.3	+2.7
7	Liverpool	6	9	8.6	+0.4
8	Leeds	6	9	7.9	+1.1
9	Ipswich	6	9	6.9	+2.1
10	Hull City	6	9	6.5	+2.5
11	Newcastle	6	8	6.4	+1.6
12	Crystal Palace	6	7	6.3	+0.7
13	Manchester United	6	6	8.8	-2.8
14	Coventry	6	6	5.9	+0.1
15	Nottingham Forest	6	5	10.9	-5.9
16	Aston Villa	6	5	6.1	-1.1
17	Sunderland	6	4	8.5	-4.5
18	Bournemouth	6	3	9.2	-6.2
19	Tottenham	6	3	7.7	-4.7
20	Fulham	6	2	7.1	-5.1

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

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Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Premier League match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).