Serie A (Brazil) xG table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-17 · 151 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 17 October 2026, Mirassol have 8.1 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Serie A (Brazil) on expected points. Palmeiras are the luckiest (11.9 more). Palmeiras lead the Serie A (Brazil) on 35 points; Vasco DA Gama top the expected-points column on 27.8 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Palmeiras	16	35	23.1	+11.9
2	Fluminense	16	30	25.4	+4.6
3	Flamengo	14	30	21.5	+8.5
4	Sao Paulo	16	24	21.4	+2.6
5	Atletico Paranaense	15	23	22.0	+1.0
6	Bahia	14	22	17.6	+4.4
7	Internacional	16	21	26.8	-5.8
8	Atletico-MG	16	21	23.1	-2.1
9	Vasco DA Gama	16	20	27.8	-7.8
10	Cruzeiro	16	20	25.7	-5.7
11	RB Bragantino	15	20	24.7	-4.7
12	Coritiba	15	20	14.1	+5.9
13	Vitoria	14	19	16.4	+2.6
14	Corinthians	15	18	20.1	-2.1
15	Santos	15	18	19.3	-1.3
16	Botafogo	14	18	17.1	+0.9
17	Gremio	15	17	19.0	-2.0
18	Mirassol	15	13	21.1	-8.1
19	Remo	15	12	18.7	-6.7
20	Chapecoense-sc	14	9	15.1	-6.1

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Serie A (Brazil) predictions Serie A (Brazil) top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Serie A (Brazil) match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).