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Super League (China) xG table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-17 · 96 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 17 October 2026, Shenyang Urban have 7.2 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Super League (China) on expected points. Chengdu Better City are the luckiest (13.2 more). Chengdu Better City lead the Super League (China) on 34 points; they also top the expected-points column on 20.8 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Chengdu Better City	12	34	20.8	+13.2
2	Shandong Luneng	12	23	20.0	+3.0
3	Shanghai Shenhua	12	21	20.1	+0.9
4	Chongqing Tongliang Long	12	20	14.8	+5.2
5	Yunnan Yukun	12	19	18.0	+1.0
6	Dalian Zhixing	12	18	18.3	-0.3
7	Qingdao Jonoon	12	17	14.8	+2.2
8	Beijing Guoan	12	16	20.0	-4.0
9	Hangzhou Greentown	12	16	18.0	-2.0
10	Henan Jianye	12	15	16.2	-1.2
11	SHANGHAI SIPG	12	13	16.8	-3.8
12	Qingdao Youth Island	12	13	14.5	-1.5
13	Tianjin Teda	12	11	11.3	-0.3
14	Wuhan Three Towns	12	10	14.1	-4.1
15	Sichuan Jiuniu	12	10	13.3	-3.3
16	Shenyang Urban	12	8	15.2	-7.2

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

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Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Super League (China) match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).