Allsvenskan xG table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-17 · 57 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 17 October 2026, IFK Goteborg have 7.5 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Allsvenskan on expected points. Sirius are the luckiest (7.1 more). Sirius lead the Allsvenskan on 19 points; Hammarby FF top the expected-points column on 14.2 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Sirius	7	19	11.9	+7.1
2	IF Elfsborg	8	15	9.7	+5.3
3	Hammarby FF	7	14	14.2	-0.2
4	Djurgardens IF	7	13	12.8	+0.2
5	Mjallby AIF	7	13	8.4	+4.6
6	BK Hacken	6	12	8.0	+4.0
7	Malmo FF	7	10	8.7	+1.3
8	Gais	8	9	13.9	-4.9
9	AIK Stockholm	7	8	10.4	-2.4
10	Degerfors IF	7	8	9.9	-1.9
11	IF Brommapojkarna	7	8	9.2	-1.2
12	Vasteras SK FK	7	8	6.3	+1.7
13	Kalmar FF	7	7	11.2	-4.2
14	Orgryte IS	7	5	6.4	-1.4
15	IFK Goteborg	7	3	10.5	-7.5
16	Halmstad	8	3	7.1	-4.1

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Allsvenskan predictions Allsvenskan top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Allsvenskan match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).