Bundesliga xG table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-25 · 61 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 25 October 2026, Borussia Mönchengladbach have 3.5 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Bundesliga on expected points. SV Elversberg are the luckiest (4.0 more). Borussia Dortmund lead the Bundesliga on 17 points; Bayern München top the expected-points column on 15.9 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	17	13.7	+3.3
2	Bayern München	6	14	15.9	-1.9
3	Bayer Leverkusen	6	13	12.6	+0.4
4	SC Freiburg	6	13	11.7	+1.3
5	RB Leipzig	7	12	12.7	-0.7
6	Werder Bremen	7	12	9.4	+2.6
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	10	12.3	-2.3
8	SV Elversberg	7	10	6.0	+4.0
9	FC Augsburg	7	9	8.5	+0.5
10	Hamburger SV	7	9	6.3	+2.7
11	1. FC Köln	7	8	10.7	-2.7
12	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	8	8.4	-0.4
13	SC Paderborn 07	7	8	7.0	+1.0
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	6	9.0	-3.0
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	6	8.4	-2.4
16	Union Berlin	7	6	6.5	-0.5
17	FC Schalke 04	7	6	6.0	0.0
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	3	6.5	-3.5

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Bundesliga predictions Bundesliga top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Bundesliga match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).