Bundesliga xG table 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-13 · 45 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 13 October 2026, Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4.2 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Bundesliga on expected points. FC Augsburg are the luckiest (3.0 more). SC Freiburg lead the Bundesliga on 13 points; Bayern München top the expected-points column on 13.0 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	SC Freiburg	5	13	10.7	+2.3
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	13	10.4	+2.6
3	Bayern München	5	11	13.0	-2.0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	10	10.8	-0.8
5	RB Leipzig	5	9	10.0	-1.0
6	Werder Bremen	5	8	5.3	+2.7
7	FC Augsburg	5	8	5.0	+3.0
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	7	9.2	-2.2
9	1. FC Köln	5	7	7.6	-0.6
10	SV Elversberg	5	7	4.2	+2.8
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	6	5.4	+0.6
12	Hamburger SV	5	6	4.8	+1.2
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	5	6.0	-1.0
14	FC Schalke 04	5	5	4.7	+0.3
15	Union Berlin	5	4	4.6	-0.6
16	SC Paderborn 07	5	4	4.2	-0.2
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	3	6.8	-3.8
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	4.2	-4.2

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

Bundesliga predictions Bundesliga top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Bundesliga match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).