J1 League xG table 2026

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-19 · 169 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: apisports_proxy

As of 19 October 2026, Kashiwa Reysol have 9.4 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in the J1 League on expected points. Kashima are the luckiest (15.7 more). Kashima lead the J1 League on 40 points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima top the expected-points column on 31.8 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Kashima	17	40	24.3	+15.7
2	FC Tokyo	17	33	30.2	+2.8
3	Vissel Kobe	17	30	28.0	+2.0
4	Nagoya Grampus	17	29	23.8	+5.2
5	Machida Zelvia	16	28	24.2	+3.8
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	17	25	31.8	-6.8
7	Urawa	17	25	25.5	-0.5
8	Tokyo Verdy	17	25	21.4	+3.6
9	Fagiano Okayama	17	24	22.9	+1.1
10	Cerezo Osaka	17	24	20.5	+3.5
11	Kawasaki Frontale	16	21	17.8	+3.2
12	Gamba Osaka	17	20	25.0	-5.0
13	Shimizu S-pulse	17	20	21.4	-1.4
14	V-varen Nagasaki	17	20	19.0	+1.0
15	Yokohama F. Marinos	17	17	23.5	-6.5
16	Avispa Fukuoka	17	17	22.1	-5.1
17	Kyoto Sanga	17	17	21.8	-4.8
18	Kashiwa Reysol	17	16	25.4	-9.4
19	Mito Hollyhock	17	14	23.1	-9.1
20	JEF United Chiba	17	12	17.2	-5.2

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to read this table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

J1 League predictions J1 League top scorers Model scoreboard What is xPts?What is xG?

Questions this page answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished J1 League match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).