Free model picks
J1 League predictions: free model picks, graded
20 J1 League fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST). 20 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Kashima lead the table on 45 points after 18 games, 8 points clear of FC Tokyo.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming J1 League fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.5% across 8M+ settled predictions — the full win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Key facts
As of 18 October 2026: After 18 games Kashima top the J1 League with 45 points, FC Tokyo next at 37 (this season so far).
As of 18 October 2026: Kaina Tanimura leads the J1 League scorers with 10 goals, level with Léo Ceará — this season so far.
As of 18 October 2026: Across 180 matches (this season so far), the J1 League has produced 2.90 goals per game.
This round at a glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST) — the free pick is Fagiano Okayama to win.
- Closest call: Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 400 of 608 times (65.8%), against an average rating of 68.7%. How we measure →
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s 10 matches (from Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Nagoya Grampus have scored in their last 16 (all competitions we cover)
Mito Hollyhock are winless in their last 11 (all competitions we cover)
Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Tokyo Verdy are winless in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
JEF United Chiba are winless in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Tokyo Verdy are winless in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Nagoya Grampus have scored in their last 16 (all competitions we cover)
Cerezo Osaka have scored in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Mito Hollyhock are winless in their last 11 (all competitions we cover)
What the data says about J1 League
TACTIX lists 20 upcoming J1 League fixtures in the next ten days, 20 of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.5% mean calibration error across an 8M+-prediction track record; the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 18 Oct 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
20 fixtures in the J1 League fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka (Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 20 of the 20 fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro.
The table so far
Kashima lead the J1 League on 45 points from 18 games, eight points clear of FC Tokyo (this season so far). The J1 League is averaging 2.90 goals a game across 180 matches, this season so far. The scoring race: Kaina Tanimura on 10 goals, Léo Ceará on 10.
Spotted something wrong? Report an error.
J1 League at a glance
Long-run averages the model fits for J1 League — the baseline every J1 League match starts from before team form.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 11 | +20 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 37 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 35 |
| 5 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 31 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 30 |
| 8 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 25 | +6 | 28 |
| 9 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Tokyo Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 26 |
| 12 | Urawa | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 25 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 23 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 21 |
| 17 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
| 18 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 20 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 18 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 12 |
Current J1 League standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Season leaders
Top scorers
- Kaina Tanimura10 G
- Léo Ceará10 G
- Yuya Yamagishi10 G
- Yudai Kimura9 G
- Deniz Hümmet8 G
Top assists
How these picks work
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
Responsible gambling
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — see our responsible-gambling policy (BeGambleAware, GamCare, GAMSTOP).
J1 League player stats
Other competitions
Get today’s picks by email
The day’s free model picks — each with its confidence tier and the tier’s settled record — in one email at 07:30 UK. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
See the full forecast
Win probability, xG and value across 30+ markets for every fixture.