Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden prediction

2. Bundesliga · · Holstein-Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Dynamo Dresden · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden, 2. Bundesliga on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 12:30 GMT.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Holstein Kiel host Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 12:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Holstein Kiel or Dynamo Dresden (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Holstein Kiel are winless in their last six matches.

Dynamo Dresden have scored in seven consecutive matches. Dynamo Dresden are winless in their last five matches.

Form and the table

Seven of Holstein Kiel’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Holstein Kiel’s last 15 results (47%). At home, Holstein Kiel have two wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.14. Holstein Kiel have scored seven goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Holstein Kiel have conceded 11 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Nine of Dynamo Dresden’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Dynamo Dresden’s last 15 results (53%). Away from home, Dynamo Dresden have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.00. Dynamo Dresden have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Dynamo Dresden have conceded 15 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Holstein Kiel (16th) and Dynamo Dresden (17th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Holstein Kiel the stronger side, 12 rating points above Dynamo Dresden (Holstein Kiel 1437, Dynamo Dresden 1425, after at least 179 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel.

Team news

Predicted Holstein Kiel XI (4-5-1): T. Weiner, H. Sekine, D. Zec, I. Nekić, L. Parduzi, J. Meffert, A. Kaprálik, G. Balzi, K. Davidsen, J. Therkelsen, P. Harres — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, P. Harres (4.7 per match over nine appearances, five goals and two assists) and G. Balzi (4.4 per match over nine appearances, two goals) have been Holstein Kiel’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Holstein Kiel (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), P. Harres averages 3.1 shots per 90 over 810 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last nine appearances. G. Balzi averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 734 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Dynamo Dresden XI (4-2-3-1): T. Schreiber, A. Rossipal, F. Muller, J. Sterner, T. Keller, B. Bobzien, R. Wagner, N. Hauptmann, N. Rapp, T. Raschl, V. Vermeij — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, B. Bobzien (6.1 per match over eight appearances, two goals and three assists) and N. Hauptmann (4.1 per match over eight appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Dynamo Dresden’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Dynamo Dresden (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), B. Bobzien averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 698 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last eight appearances. N. Hauptmann averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 611 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last eight appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · 2. Bundesliga · Holstein-Stadion
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Holstein Kiel 4 · draws 1 · Dynamo Dresden 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Holstein Kiel 0W 3D 2L · Dynamo Dresden 0W 2D 3L

Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.88 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 7.63
Corners
against 4.63 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 2
Cards
against 2.75 / 2.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameHolstein Kiel for / againstLineDynamo Dresden for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
7.63 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
13.75 for · 13.75 against n 8
19.5standard
13.25 for · 14.88 against n 8
Shots on target
3 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 5.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.88 for · 14.38 against n 8
21.5standard
9.38 for · 9.13 against n 8
Cards shown
3.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.88 against n 8
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
I. Ugoh n 838
3.65/3
0.93/0
—
K. Davidsen n 866.9
2.77/4
1.96/2
—
J. Therkelsen n 857.3
2.46/4
2.25/2
—
D. Zec n 863.6
2.16/5
0.53/0
—
S. Skrzybski n 853.5
2.15/4
1.96/3
—
Holstein Kiel — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Harres n 890
3.18/7
1.37/3
F. Alidou n 834.6
2.34/2
0.31/0
G. de Regt n 836.3
1.94/1
0.61/1
G. Kvilitaia n 850.6
1.85/1
1.33/1
A. Bernhardsson n 873.5
1.76/2
0.83/2
Holstein Kiel — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Bernhardsson n 873.5
0.52/1
0.32/0
P. Harres n 890
0.54/0
0.11/0
A. Kaprálik n 881.9
0.11/0
0.32/0
G. Kvilitaia n 850.6
0.42/0
00/0
G. de Regt n 836.3
00/0
0.31/0
Holstein Kiel — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
I. Ugoh n 838
35/2
H. Sekine n 889.9
2.67/5
K. Davidsen n 866.9
2.47/4
Leon Parduzi n 858.6
2.34/3
T. Wiese n 327.7
2.21/1
Holstein Kiel — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Weiner n 890
2.96/5
Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Kennedy Okpala n 826.1
35/2
2.64/1
—
P. Čović n 834.8
2.34/2
0.31/0
—
T. Raschl n 840.9
1.95/2
0.31/0
—
V. Vermeij n 877.9
1.76/4
0.63/1
—
Simon Straudi n 855.9
1.65/3
0.82/1
—
Dynamo Dresden — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Daferner n 815.5
4.45/1
0.71/0
J. Lemmer n 826.1
2.63/1
0.92/0
V. Vermeij n 877.9
1.76/4
0.32/0
K. Inanoglu n 551.6
1.72/2
12/1
Kennedy Okpala n 826.1
1.74/0
1.33/0
Dynamo Dresden — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Bobzien n 887.3
0.32/0
0.42/1
V. Vermeij n 877.9
0.32/0
0.32/0
N. Hauptmann n 876.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
J. Sterner n 868.1
0.32/0
0.32/0
K. Inanoglu n 551.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
Dynamo Dresden — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Raschl n 840.9
3.36/4
Simon Straudi n 855.9
34/4
P. Čović n 834.8
2.94/4
J. Oehmichen n 829.5
2.33/1
L. Herrmann n 822.1
22/2
Dynamo Dresden — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Schreiber n 890
3.46/5
L. Grill n 890
36/4

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Holstein KielDLDLD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
Dynamo DresdenLLDLD
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Holstein Kiel 4 · 1 draw · Dynamo Dresden 1 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-05-17 Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel
  • 2025-12-20 Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden
  • 2022-04-16 Dynamo Dresden 0–0 Holstein Kiel
  • 2021-11-05 Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden
  • 2020-06-18 Holstein Kiel 2–0 Dynamo Dresden
  • 2019-11-30 Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Holstein Kiel
League standing · 2026/27
Holstein Kiel#16 pos5 pts8 pl-4 GD
Dynamo Dresden#17 pos5 pts7 pl-6 GD
Goals per game
Holstein Kiel scored0.88
Dynamo Dresden scored1.29
Holstein Kiel conceded1.38
Dynamo Dresden conceded2.14

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden?
In their last 6 meetings, Holstein Kiel won 4, Dynamo Dresden won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden?
Recent form — Holstein Kiel 0W 3D 2L; Dynamo Dresden 0W 2D 3L.

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