Free model picks
Home Win Predictions & Tips
28 upcoming fixtures in the next 10 days have Home win as TACTIX’s single free model pick. The first is Sint Maarten v Anguilla (Friendlies), Wed, 11 Nov 2026 00:30 GMT. Each card shows the pick and the best bookmaker price; the model’s probabilities are part of Pro.
The model’s record: ±0.1% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included). Each match is graded on the forecasts of the one model that served it. Pre-match forecasts only; 4,256,462 written after kick-off are not counted. Since 1 Nov 2026, the record counts forecasts written before kick-off only. No prediction is sure — probabilities are estimates. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Every upcoming fixture where the TACTIX model’s free pick is Home win, with the best bookmaker price. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline — the full win probability, xG and value are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Vietnam have won their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Namibia have lost their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Senegal have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
Zambia are winless in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
FYR Macedonia are winless in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Livingston are unbeaten in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Carlisle are unbeaten in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
Alianza Lima have scored in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Manchester United W are unbeaten in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Charlton Athletic W are winless in their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
San Marino are winless in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
France have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Switzerland have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
What the Data Says About Home Win
TACTIX lists 28 upcoming fixtures whose free model pick is Home win, each shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.1% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. For this market specifically the published calibration error is ±5.3% across 25,500 settled predictions. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 10 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
How These Home win Picks Work
A fixture appears here when Home win is the model’s single strongest free lean for that match. One free pick per game, label and best price only — the complete forecast (calibrated probability, xG, value vs the market) opens with Pro. The live record, losers included, is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
Responsible Gambling
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — see our responsible-gambling policy.
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Win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets for every fixture.