Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa prediction

AFC Champions League Elite · · Alinma Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Al-Ahli Jeddah · Al-Gharafa

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa, AFC Champions League Elite on Mon, 26 Oct 2026 16:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 630 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Gharafa in AFC Champions League Elite on Monday 26 October (kick-off 16:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

13 of Al-Ahli Jeddah’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%).

Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Al-Ahli Jeddah are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Al-Gharafa have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in nine of Al-Ahli Jeddah’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 3.17 and conceding 0.50.

Nine of Al-Gharafa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Al-Gharafa’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Al-Gharafa have no wins, one draw and seven defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.13 points per game, scoring 0.88 and conceding 3.38.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (fifth) and Al-Gharafa (13th) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Al-Ahli Jeddah the stronger side, 634 rating points above Al-Gharafa (Al-Ahli Jeddah 2007, Al-Gharafa 1373, after at least 34 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Al-Ahli Jeddah are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Al-Gharafa, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 20 October 2025, finished Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al-Gharafa.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, I. Toney (7.8 per match over eight appearances, 11 goals and one assist) and Trincão (5.8 per match over nine appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Al-Ahli Jeddah’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Al-Ahli Jeddah (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), I. Toney averages 3.2 shots per 90 over 778 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Trincão averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 900 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · AFC Champions League Elite · Alinma Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 · draws 2 · Al-Gharafa 0 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W 1D 0L · Al-Gharafa 1W 0D 4L

Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League Elite): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.63 / 0.5
Goals
against 1.38 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.71 / 4.88
Corners
against 3.86 / 6.63 · 0 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6.29 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 3.14 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.43 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.43 / 1.88 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAl-Ahli Jeddah for / againstLineAl-Gharafa for / against
Goals scored
2.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
0.5 for · 2.63 against n 8
Corners won
3.71 for · 3.86 against n 7
9.5standard
4.88 for · 6.63 against n 8
Shots
14.57 for · 11.71 against n 7
19.5standard
12.25 for · 13.5 against n 8
Shots on target
6.29 for · 3.14 against n 7
8.5standard
3.38 for · 5.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.71 for · 14.14 against n 7
21.5standard
10.75 for · 12.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.43 for · 2.43 against n 7
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
V. Atangana n 886.4
3.18/6
1.76/4
—
Makaya Ibrahima Diaby n 867.4
2.76/5
15/1
—
Ziyad Al Johani n 853.3
2.14/3
1.14/1
—
Meshal Al Mutairi n 817.4
1.92/1
3.95/1
—
Trincão n 857.6
1.85/3
0.42/0
—
Al-Ahli Jeddah — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Toney n 881.6
3.77/7
2.56/6
Meshal Al Mutairi n 817.4
3.24/1
1.92/1
Galeno n 874.6
27/4
0.85/0
Trincão n 857.6
25/4
1.24/1
E. Spertsyan n 874.4
1.87/4
0.63/1
Al-Ahli Jeddah — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Toney n 881.6
1.56/4
0.11/0
Trincão n 857.6
0.83/1
0.42/0
Firas Al-Buraikan n 844.4
0.52/0
0.31/0
Artem Bondarenko n 854.3
0.62/1
00/0
E. Spertsyan n 874.4
0.21/0
0.32/0
Al-Ahli Jeddah — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Zakaria Al Hawsawi n 851.5
4.87/5
Meshal Al Mutairi n 817.4
4.55/2
Firas Al-Buraikan n 844.4
4.37/5
S. Abu Al Shamat n 836.1
45/4
Naif Masoud n 833
3.85/3
Al-Ahli Jeddah — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Mendy n 886.6
2.76/5
Abdulrahman Al Sanbi n 890
1.64/2
Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Holgate n 855.8
2.24/3
0.82/2
—
Álvaro Djaló n 858.8
1.97/2
1.96/4
—
M. Normann n 873.3
1.86/4
0.94/1
—
Dame Traoré n 846.5
1.74/2
00/0
—
F. Sassi n 886.8
1.65/5
0.43/0
—
Al-Gharafa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Mohammed Muntari n 829.6
2.74/3
1.94/1
Joselu n 879
2.47/7
1.15/3
F. Magri n 852
2.45/2
0.93/1
A. Ounas n 841.8
2.25/2
1.14/0
Jamal Hamed n 754.9
2.14/2
00/0
Al-Gharafa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Brahimi n 888.4
0.11/0
0.53/1
Joselu n 879
0.42/1
00/0
M. Normann n 873.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
F. Magri n 852
0.21/0
0.21/0
Mohammed Muntari n 829.6
0.41/0
00/0
Al-Gharafa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 19 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Sano n 888.1
3.28/8
Rayyan Al Ali n 534
3.23/3
F. Díaz n 876.4
2.87/5
Amro Abdelfatah Ali Surag n 869.9
2.48/4
Ahmed Al Ganehi n 855.8
2.46/4

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Al-Ahli JeddahWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
Al-GharafaWLLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 · 2 draws · Al-Gharafa 0 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2025-10-20 Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al-Gharafa
  • 2025-02-17 Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–2 Al-Gharafa
  • 2018-03-13 Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-Gharafa
  • 2018-03-05 Al-Gharafa 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah
League standing · 2026/27
Al-Ahli Jeddah#5 pos4 pts2 pl+2 GD
Al-Gharafa#13 pos0 pts2 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Al-Ahli Jeddah scored2
Al-Gharafa scored1
Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded1
Al-Gharafa conceded2

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa?
In their last 4 meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2, Al-Gharafa won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Gharafa?
Recent form — Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W 1D 0L; Al-Gharafa 1W 0D 4L.

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