Expected goals metrics start from one idea: every shot has a chance of becoming a goal, judged from where and how it was taken, and adding those chances up says more about a team or player than the goals alone. Around plain xG sits a family of related numbers, each built to answer a narrower question. This guide explains the ones you will meet most often and what each is good for.
Why Strip Penalties Out of xG?
Non-penalty xG, or npxG, is expected goals with penalties removed. A penalty is a very high-quality chance handed to whoever takes it, so a striker who is on spot kicks can look far more dangerous in open play than he is. Removing them gives a cleaner read of the chances a player or team creates through their own play.
What Are Expected Assists?
Expected assists, or xA, credit the passer with the xG of the shot their pass created, whether or not the shot went in. A creator whose team-mates keep missing still builds up xA, which is why it is a better guide to creative quality than the assist column. Summed across a season, it shows who is making chances rather than who is getting lucky with finishers.
What Does xGOT Add to xG?
Post-shot expected goals, called xGOT, re-values a shot after it is struck, using where in the goal it was heading as well as where it was taken from. It only exists for shots on target. A shot from a good position that is hit straight at the keeper keeps its xG but earns a low xGOT; a hard shot into the top corner earns a high one. The gap between the two says something about finishing.
How Do You Measure a Goalkeeper?
Goals prevented compares the goals a keeper actually conceded with the xGOT of the on-target shots they faced. A positive figure means they saved more than an average keeper would have from the same shots; a negative figure means fewer. Because keepers face relatively few shots, the number needs a large sample before it means much.
Why Look at Set-Piece xG on Its Own?
Set-piece xG is the share of a team’s expected goals that comes from corners, free kicks and throw-in routines rather than open play. Set pieces are rehearsed and repeatable, so a side that creates a lot from them has a source of chances that does not depend on how the open game goes. It is also the first place to look when a team’s results run ahead of its open-play numbers.
What Counts as a Shot-Creating Action?
Shot-creating actions credit the last two attacking involvements before a shot: a pass, a dribble, a foul won or a rebound. Goal-creating actions are the subset that end in a goal. They share the credit more widely than assists do, so they pick up the player whose run or dribble set up the chance as well as whoever made the final pass.
Where Do Expected Goals Metrics Show Up on TACTIX?
Match pages carry the xG summary where the data exists, and the expected-points tables on the open-data page are built from xG. For how chance quality feeds a forecast, see how football prediction models work, and for how the forecasts are graded, the accuracy page.
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