Horoya v Al Merreikh prediction

CAF Champions League ·

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TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Under 3.5 goals the free pick for Horoya v Al Merreikh, CAF Champions League on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 17:00 BST.

Free pick
Under 3.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 3.5 goals in the last 90 days, 72% of 1735 landed (95% range 69.9–74.1%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Horoya host Al Merreikh in CAF Champions League on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 3.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Two of Al Merreikh’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (13%).

Form and the table

Six of Horoya’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Horoya’s last 15 results (40%). At home, Horoya have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches — 2.13 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 0.88.

Al Merreikh are unbeaten in their last three matches. Al Merreikh have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches. Both teams scored in four of Al Merreikh’s last 15 results (27%). Away from home, Al Merreikh have one win, two draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches — 0.63 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.25.

Horoya (third) and Al Merreikh (fourth) are two points apart, the most recent table TACTIX holds. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Horoya the stronger side, 29 rating points above Al Merreikh (Horoya 1633, Al Merreikh 1604, after at least 36 rated matches each).

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · CAF Champions League
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Horoya 2W 1D 2L · Al Merreikh 2W 1D 2L

TACTIX runs Horoya v Al Merreikh (CAF Champions League) through its calibrated model across 19 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

19
Markets analysed

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Horoya v Al Merreikh — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
HoroyaWDLLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Al MerreikhLLDWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 0.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2022/23
Last recorded position from an earlier season — not updated during the season.
Horoya#3 pos7 pts6 pl-8 GD
Al Merreikh#4 pos5 pts6 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Horoya scored0.67
Al Merreikh scored0.83
Horoya conceded2
Al Merreikh conceded1.17

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 19 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value vs the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Horoya v Al Merreikh?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Horoya v Al Merreikh is Under 3.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Horoya and Al Merreikh?
Recent form — Horoya 2W 1D 2L; Al Merreikh 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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