Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline prediction

Championship – Scotland · · Ochilview Park

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TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Under 3.5 goals the free pick for Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline, Championship – Scotland on Tue, 27 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick
Under 3.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 3.5 goals in the last 90 days, 71.9% of 1775 landed (95% range 69.8–74%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Stenhousemuir host Dunfermline in the Championship – Scotland on Tuesday 27 October (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 3.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Four of Stenhousemuir’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in five of Stenhousemuir’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Stenhousemuir have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.13 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 0.63. Stenhousemuir have scored 13 goals, the fourth-most of the 10 clubs (2026/27 so far). Stenhousemuir have conceded five goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 10 clubs.

Five of Dunfermline’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in six of Dunfermline’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Dunfermline have two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 1.25. Dunfermline have scored seven goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 10 clubs (2026/27 so far). Dunfermline have conceded five goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 10 clubs.

Stenhousemuir (first) and Dunfermline (sixth) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Stenhousemuir the stronger side, 49 rating points above Dunfermline (Stenhousemuir 1645, Dunfermline 1596, after at least 16 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 18 January 2025, finished Dunfermline 3–0 Stenhousemuir.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Championship – Scotland · Ochilview Park
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Stenhousemuir 0 · draws 0 · Dunfermline 2 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Stenhousemuir 3W 1D 1L · Dunfermline 2W 3D 0L

Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline (Championship – Scotland): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

19
Markets analysed

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
StenhousemuirWWWLD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
DunfermlineDWWDD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 1 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Stenhousemuir 0 · 0 draws · Dunfermline 2 · 4 goals/game
  • 2025-01-18 Dunfermline 3–0 Stenhousemuir
  • 2021-07-24 Dunfermline 4–1 Stenhousemuir
League standing · 2026/27
Stenhousemuir#1 pos23 pts10 pl+8 GD
Dunfermline#6 pos14 pts9 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Stenhousemuir scored1.3
Dunfermline scored0.78
Stenhousemuir conceded0.5
Dunfermline conceded0.56

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline is Under 3.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline?
In their last 2 meetings, Stenhousemuir won 0, Dunfermline won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline?
Recent form — Stenhousemuir 3W 1D 1L; Dunfermline 2W 3D 0L.

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