Blackburn v Derby prediction
Team pages: Blackburn · Derby · Head-to-head
TACTIX’s free model pick for Blackburn v Derby, Championship on Sat, 12 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.
The match
Blackburn host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 12 December (kick-off 15:00 UK).
The key numbers
12 of Blackburn’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).
Derby are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions. Blackburn have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Both teams scored in 12 of Blackburn’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%). At home, Blackburn have three wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.43. Blackburn have scored 17 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Blackburn have conceded 16 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.
10 of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Derby have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 2.00. Derby have scored nine goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far). Derby have conceded 20 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs.
Blackburn (10th) and Derby (23rd) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Blackburn the stronger side, 171 rating points above Derby (Blackburn 1497, Derby 1327, after at least 338 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Derby are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Blackburn. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished Derby 3–1 Blackburn.
Team news
Predicted Blackburn XI (4-2-3-1): B. Tóth, S. McLoughlin, T. Atcheson, R. Alebiosu, H. Carter, S. Morsy, K. Montgomery, O. Afolayan, R. Morishita, T. Cantwell, A. Guðjohnsen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Oladapo Afolayan (4.2 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and two assists) and Kristi Montgomery (4.1 per match over 13 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Blackburn’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Blackburn (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Oladapo Afolayan averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 908 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last 10 appearances. Kristi Montgomery averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 1007 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Vickers, D. Sanderson, J. Ward, R. Nyambe, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, A. Mowatt, S. Szmodics, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (4.1 per match over 12 appearances, two goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over eight appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.2 shots per 90 over 690 minutes, with a shot in six of the last eight appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Championship · Ewood Park
- Head-to-head (last 6): Blackburn 3 · draws 0 · Derby 3 · 3.83 goals/game
- Recent form: Blackburn 3W 1D 1L · Derby 0W 2D 3L
Blackburn v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Blackburn for / against | Line | Derby for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 0.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 7.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.63 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.88 for · 15.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.75 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.88 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 9.88 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.88 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
Blackburn
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gady Beyuku n 8 | 46.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | — |
| J. Garrett n 8 | 37.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| A. Kargbo n 8 | 26.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | — |
| O. Afolayan n 8 | 69.6 | 1.5 | 2.6 | — |
| Sam Morsy n 8 | 83.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fevrier n 8 | 36.1 | 4 | 1.2 |
| A. Kargbo n 8 | 26.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| O. Afolayan n 8 | 69.6 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Lucas Pasquoto n 8 | 32.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| A. Guðjohnsen n 8 | 58.8 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Guðjohnsen n 8 | 58.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| O. Afolayan n 8 | 69.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| A. Kargbo n 8 | 26.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| H. Pickering n 8 | 82.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| J. Garrett n 8 | 37.9 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Kristi Montgomery n 8 | 84.1 | 3.5 |
| J. Garrett n 8 | 37.9 | 3 |
| Sam Morsy n 8 | 83.5 | 2.6 |
| M. Baradji n 8 | 41.8 | 2.4 |
| H. Pickering n 8 | 82.4 | 2 |
Derby
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Meister n 8 | 34.3 | 3.9 | 1 | — |
| L. Salvesen n 8 | 28.8 | 2.7 | 0 | — |
| D. Ozoh n 8 | 74.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 | — |
| F. Bilbija n 8 | 48.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | — |
| L. Travis n 8 | 77.1 | 2 | 2.2 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Salvesen n 8 | 28.8 | 4.3 | 2 |
| H. Meister n 8 | 34.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| C. Blackett-Taylor n 8 | 23.1 | 1.9 | 1 |
| S. Szmodics n 8 | 84.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| F. Bilbija n 8 | 48.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Salvesen n 8 | 28.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| S. Szmodics n 8 | 84.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| M. Fuseini n 8 | 62.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| F. Bilbija n 8 | 48.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| R. Brewster n 8 | 29.4 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Ozoh n 8 | 74.3 | 3.6 |
| A. Mowatt n 8 | 85 | 2.5 |
| L. Travis n 8 | 77.1 | 2.5 |
| R. Hedges n 8 | 69.5 | 2.3 |
| J. Ward n 8 | 68.6 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. Widell Zetterström n 8 | 90.6 | 3.7 |
| J. Vickers n 8 | 89.5 | 2 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Blackburn v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-02-28 Derby 3–1 Blackburn
- 2025-11-08 Blackburn 1–2 Derby
- 2025-03-08 Derby 2–1 Blackburn
- 2024-08-09 Blackburn 4–2 Derby
- 2022-03-15 Blackburn 3–1 Derby
- 2021-10-30 Derby 1–2 Blackburn
Frequently asked questions
- What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Derby?
- In their last 6 meetings, Blackburn won 3, Derby won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Blackburn and Derby?
- Recent form — Blackburn 3W 1D 1L; Derby 0W 2D 3L.
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