Groningen v Ajax prediction

The match

Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 15:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Groningen have scored in eight consecutive matches. Groningen are unbeaten in their last four matches.

Ajax have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked.

Form and the table

11 of Groningen’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Groningen’s last 15 results (73%). At home, Groningen have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 1.43. Groningen have scored 20 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Groningen have conceded 14 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Ajax are winless in their last three matches. 13 of Ajax’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 13 of Ajax’s last 15 results (87%). Away from home, Ajax have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 away matches — 2.29 points per game, scoring 3.14 and conceding 1.14. Ajax have scored 22 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Ajax have conceded 10 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Groningen (sixth) and Ajax (fifth) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Ajax the stronger side, 16 rating points above Groningen (Ajax 1769, Groningen 1753, after at least 276 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 21 May 2026, finished Ajax 2–0 Groningen.

Team news

Groningen have four names on the availability list: E. van der Laan (out, Injury), M. Jeng (out, Leg Injury), T. Hernes (out, Injury) and T. Mercera (out, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. Predicted Groningen XI (4-2-3-1): E. Vaessen, T. Blokzijl, J. Schreuders, W. Prins, M. Csinger, T. van Bergen, T. de Jonge, P. Clement, D. van der Werff, T. Land, B. Willumsson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Thom van Bergen (7.2 per match over eight appearances, five goals and two assists) and David van der Werff (5.0 per match over eight appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Groningen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Groningen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Thom van Bergen averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 715 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last eight appearances. David van der Werff averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 653 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last eight appearances.

Ajax have five names on the availability list: A. Gaaei (out, Injury), Caio Henrique (out, Thigh Injury), D. Blind (out, Back Injury), K. Dolberg (out, Knee Injury) and S. Berghuis (out, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-17. Predicted Ajax XI (4-3-3): M. ter Stegen, Y. Baas, A. Bouwman, T. Kehrer, L. Rosa, J. Mokio, J. Brandt, D. Klaassen, T. Arokodare, O. Gloukh, V. Tsygankov — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Mika Godts (8.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and three assists) and Oscar Gloukh (4.8 per match over 14 appearances, five goals and four assists) have been Ajax’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ajax (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mika Godts averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 842 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. Oscar Gloukh averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 1186 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.