Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax prediction
Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam · Ajax · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax, Eredivisie on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 15:45 GMT.
The match
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 15:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Ajax have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Sparta Rotterdam are winless in their last six matches in all competitions. Ajax are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Sparta Rotterdam, every meeting checked.
Form and the table
11 of Sparta Rotterdam’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Sparta Rotterdam’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Sparta Rotterdam have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 2.13. Sparta Rotterdam have scored 16 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Sparta Rotterdam have conceded 22 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.
13 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 13 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions (87%). Away from home, Ajax have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 3.38 and conceding 1.25. Ajax have scored 27 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Ajax have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Sparta Rotterdam (13th) and Ajax (fourth) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Ajax the stronger side, 405 rating points above Sparta Rotterdam (Ajax 1864, Sparta Rotterdam 1459, after at least 279 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2026, finished Ajax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Team news
Predicted Sparta Rotterdam XI (4-2-3-1): M. Brouwer, M. Young, B. Martins Indi, B. Kuipers, L. Martes, J. Baas, C. Hatenboer, S. Mito, J. Toornstra, I. Babadi, M. Zonneveld — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Milan Zonneveld (5.2 per match over nine appearances, six goals and one assist) and L. Martes (4.8 per match over nine appearances, two goals) have been Sparta Rotterdam’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sparta Rotterdam (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Milan Zonneveld averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 592 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last nine appearances. L. Martes averages 3.5 tackles per 90 over 792 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Ajax XI (4-3-3): M. ter Stegen, Y. Baas, C. Henrique, A. Bouwman, T. Kehrer, J. Mokio, D. Klaassen, J. Brandt, O. Gloukh, T. Arokodare, K. Dolberg — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mika Godts (8.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and three assists) and T. Kehrer (4.7 per match over six appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Ajax’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ajax (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mika Godts averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 842 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances. T. Kehrer averages 1.6 tackles per 90 over 452 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Eredivisie · Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Sparta Rotterdam 0 · draws 3 · Ajax 3 · 3.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Sparta Rotterdam 0W 2D 3L · Ajax 2W 2D 1L
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax (Eredivisie): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Sparta Rotterdam for / against | Line | Ajax for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 2 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.75our book | 3 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.75 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.5 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15.25 for · 16.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 21.13 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.75 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 8.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.13 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Sparta Rotterdam
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Þórisson n 8 | 57.1 | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Roaldsøy n 8 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 0 | — |
| B. Reith n 8 | 64.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | — |
| Teo Quintero n 8 | 33.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | — |
| J. Baas n 8 | 73.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kostić n 5 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 0 |
| N. Þórisson n 8 | 57.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| M. Zonneveld n 8 | 70.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| A. Santos n 8 | 53 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| I. Babadi n 8 | 43.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zonneveld n 8 | 70.5 | 1 | 0.2 |
| I. Babadi n 8 | 43.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| B. Kuipers n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0.4 |
| S. Mito n 8 | 84.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| N. Þórisson n 8 | 57.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Martes n 8 | 87.8 | 3.7 |
| Teo Quintero n 8 | 33.4 | 3.4 |
| M. Young n 8 | 88.6 | 2.8 |
| Cedric Hatenboer n 8 | 81.3 | 2.8 |
| B. Reith n 8 | 64.5 | 2.6 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. Brouwer n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
| F. Bednarek n 8 | 90 | 3 |
Ajax
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mokio n 8 | 72.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | — |
| V. Tsygankov n 8 | 63.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| A. Gaaei n 8 | 79.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | — |
| D. Janse n 8 | 64.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | — |
| Lucas Rosa n 8 | 68.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. Arokodare n 8 | 61.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| Marcos Leonardo n 8 | 35.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| A. Ouazane n 8 | 29.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| K. Dolberg n 8 | 56.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| S. Berghuis n 8 | 67.6 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Dolberg n 8 | 56.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| T. Arokodare n 8 | 61.5 | 1.1 | 0 |
| D. Klaassen n 8 | 56.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| J. Brandt n 8 | 80.1 | 0.7 | 0 |
| T. Kehrer n 8 | 59.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Amrabat n 8 | 58.9 | 2.9 |
| Jofre Torrents n 6 | 32.2 | 2.8 |
| A. Gaaei n 8 | 79.5 | 2.7 |
| Lucas Rosa n 8 | 68.6 | 2.6 |
| J. Mokio n 8 | 72.8 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. ter Stegen n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
| M. Paes n 8 | 94.6 | 2.4 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-03-14 Ajax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 2025-10-04 Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 Ajax
- 2025-04-27 Ajax 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam
- 2024-12-22 Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 Ajax
- 2024-03-17 Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 Ajax
- 2023-12-09 Ajax 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?
- In their last 6 meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 0, Ajax won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?
- Recent form — Sparta Rotterdam 0W 2D 3L; Ajax 2W 2D 1L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.