How Accurate Are the Projections?

Every gameweek we seal our projections before the deadline, with FPL’s own projection (its expected points) snapshotted at the same moment. After the week is played and FPL has checked its data, both are scored against the points FPL awarded, on the same players. Verify the sealed record.

The Season So Far

Model v2 weeks only: 4.

Measure	TACTIX	FPL	Out of
Mean absolute error, everyone who played (lower is better)	2.013	2.321	1218 player-weeks
Mean absolute error, 60 minutes or more	2.422	2.756	822 player-weeks
Captain points (not doubled)	29	13	4 weeks
Captain returns (6 points or more)	3	1	4 weeks
Points of the 15 highest projected	200	212	4 weeks
Rank correlation, players over 5% owned (mean)	0.005	0.104	4 weeks

The sealed TACTIX Picks XI scored 174 points over 4 weeks (captain doubled), against an FPL average of 209; it beat the average in 1 of 4. The XI is eleven players with no bench and no transfer costs; the average is a full squad after transfer costs — not the same game, so read it as a guide.

Week by Week

GW	Model	MAE TACTIX / FPL (played)	60+ min	Captain TACTIX / FPL	Top 15 TACTIX / FPL	XI v average
9	v2	1.84 / 1.91 (306)	2.261 / 2.325 (206)	2 / 2	77 / 80	55 v 47
8	v2	2.145 / 2.599 (300)	2.583 / 3.1 (210)	8 / 2	33 / 35	33 v 45
7	v2	2.072 / 2.495 (302)	2.476 / 2.92 (200)	13 / 3	51 / 46	51 v 59
6	v2	1.998 / 2.289 (310)	2.368 / 2.677 (206)	6 / 6	39 / 51	35 v 58

Season MAE: TACTIX is 0.308 lower than FPL’s own projection on the same 1218 player-weeks.

Not scored yet: GW1 (no projection snapshot (sealed before pack 1321)); GW2 (no projection snapshot (sealed before pack 1321)); GW3 (no projection snapshot (sealed before pack 1321)); GW4 (no projection snapshot (sealed before pack 1321)); GW5 (no projection snapshot (sealed before pack 1321)); GW10 (not finished and data-checked yet).

What the Measures Mean

Mean absolute error (MAE): The average gap, in FPL points, between a player’s projection and what he scored — per player, per gameweek. Lower is better. Even a perfect model sits near two points, because single gameweeks are noisy.
Same players: Both projections are scored only on players both of them projected, who then played. “Played” is one minute or more; the 60-minute line is shown as well.
Captain: Ours is the sealed captain. FPL’s is picked from its own projection by the same rule — the highest-projected midfielder or forward without a doubt flag.
Rank correlation: How well each projection ordered the players over 5% owned against what they scored (1 is a perfect order). Ownership is read when this page is built, not when each week was sealed.
Model v1 (retired): Weeks sealed before projections v2 are listed for the record and left out of every season figure.

TACTIX is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the Premier League. Fantasy Premier League and FPL are trademarks of the Premier League.