MVV v Excelsior prediction
TACTIX’s free model pick for MVV vs Excelsior, KNVB Beker on Wed, 28 Oct 2026 19:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.
The match
MVV host Excelsior in the KNVB Beker on Wednesday 28 October (kick-off 19:00 UK).
The key numbers
MVV have scored in five consecutive matches. 11 of MVV’s last 13 results went over 2.5 goals (85%).
Excelsior are winless in their last five matches.
Form and the table
Both teams scored in nine of MVV’s last 13 results (69%). At home, MVV have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 home matches — 0.80 points per game, scoring 1.60 and conceding 2.40.
13 of Excelsior’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 10 of Excelsior’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Excelsior have four wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 8 away matches — 1.88 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 1.75.
TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Excelsior the stronger side, 351 rating points above MVV (Excelsior 1772, MVV 1422, after at least 11 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 19 October 2022, finished Excelsior 5–1 MVV.
Team news
By TACTIX Impact, Irakli Yegoian (7.1 per match over nine appearances, three goals and five assists) and Casper Widell (3.6 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Excelsior’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Excelsior (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Irakli Yegoian averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 857 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Casper Widell averages 0.7 tackles per 90 over 736 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last nine appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · KNVB Beker · De Geusselt
- Head-to-head (last 2): MVV 0 · draws 1 · Excelsior 1 · 5 goals/game
- Recent form: MVV 1W 0D 4L · Excelsior 0W 2D 3L
MVV v Excelsior (KNVB Beker): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | MVV for / against | Line | Excelsior for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.88 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5 for · 4.33 against n 3 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.25 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.67 for · 13.67 against n 3 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.25 for · 16.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.33 for · 7.33 against n 3 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.38 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.33 for · 11 against n 3 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.63 for · 7.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3 for · 2.67 against n 3 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.5 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
MVV
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben van Bommel n 8 | 54.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | — |
| O. Džepar n 5 | 52 | 1.4 | 1 | — |
| Rein Van Helden n 8 | 90 | 1.1 | 0.4 | — |
| I. Silva Timas n 8 | 39.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | — |
| N. Souren n 8 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarne Steuckers n 8 | 31.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| S. Braken n 5 | 67.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| N. El Basri n 3 | 61 | 2 | 1 |
| Ruben van Bommel n 8 | 54.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| B. Smeets n 3 | 73 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Braken n 5 | 67.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| I. Silva Timas n 8 | 39.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| N. El Basri n 3 | 61 | 0.5 | 0 |
| S. Van Dessel n 8 | 89 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Rein Van Helden n 8 | 90 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| M. van Kempen n 3 | 88.7 | 3 |
| N. El Basri n 3 | 61 | 2.5 |
| Rein Van Helden n 8 | 90 | 2.1 |
| Ruben van Bommel n 8 | 54.3 | 1.9 |
| I. Silva Timas n 8 | 39.6 | 1.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| R. Matthys n 8 | 89.8 | 3.1 |
Excelsior
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Groen n 6 | 20.2 | 4.5 | 0 | — |
| V. Sulzbacher n 8 | 31.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | — |
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh n 8 | 18.4 | 3.1 | 0 | — |
| Giulliano Cairo n 3 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 0 | — |
| N. Naujoks n 8 | 75 | 1.7 | 0.9 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Domínguez n 8 | 16.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 |
| N. Groen n 6 | 20.2 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh n 8 | 18.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| N. Naujoks n 8 | 75 | 2 | 0.9 |
| A. Sliti n 8 | 62.4 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| V. Sulzbacher n 8 | 31.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| A. Sliti n 8 | 62.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| N. Groen n 6 | 20.2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Irakli Yegoian n 8 | 64 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| N. Naujoks n 8 | 75 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Giulliano Cairo n 3 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| K. Bos n 5 | 34.6 | 3.6 |
| D. van Vianen n 7 | 61.9 | 3.1 |
| J. Plug n 8 | 90 | 2.5 |
| V. Sulzbacher n 8 | 31.4 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. van Gassel n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind MVV v Excelsior — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2022-10-19 Excelsior 5–1 MVV
- 2021-01-19 MVV 2–2 Excelsior
Frequently asked questions
- What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Excelsior?
- In their last 2 meetings, MVV won 0, Excelsior won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of MVV and Excelsior?
- Recent form — MVV 1W 0D 4L; Excelsior 0W 2D 3L.
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