Alaves v Malaga prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Alaves v Malaga, La Liga on Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.
The match
Alaves host Malaga in La Liga on Friday 23 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Alaves to win.
The key numbers
Alaves are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Malaga are winless in their last nine matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Eight of Alaves’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Alaves’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Alaves have five wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.78 and conceding 1.33. Alaves have scored 13 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Alaves have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs.
Four of Malaga’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in eight of Malaga’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Malaga have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.29. Malaga have scored six goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Malaga have conceded 18 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Alaves (seventh) and Malaga (20th) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Alaves the stronger side, 294 rating points above Malaga (Alaves 1510, Malaga 1215, after at least 47 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 20 May 2023, finished Alaves 2–1 Malaga.
Team news
Predicted Alaves XI (3-5-2): Sivera, N. Tenaglia, V. Koski, Jonny, P. Ibáñez, A. Blanco, A. Rebbach, D. Suárez, A. Pérez, L. Boyé, T. Martínez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Lucas Boyé (5.2 per match over eight appearances, five goals) and Pablo Ibáñez (3.6 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Alaves’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alaves (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Lucas Boyé averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 638 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last eight appearances. Pablo Ibáñez averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 760 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last nine appearances.
Predicted Malaga XI (4-1-4-1): A. Herrero, Á. Recio, Rafita, E. Galilea, J. Salinas, D. Larrubia, P. Martínez, D. Lorenzo, C. Dotor, I. Merino, Chupe — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, David Larrubia (4.7 per match over nine appearances) and Rafita (3.4 per match over nine appearances, one assist) have been Malaga’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Malaga (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), David Larrubia averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 732 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last nine appearances. Rafita averages 1.3 tackles per 90 over 742 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · La Liga · Estadio de Mendizorroza
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 4): Alaves 3 · draws 0 · Malaga 1 · 2 goals/game
- Recent form: Alaves 0W 1D 4L · Malaga 0W 2D 3L
Alaves v Malaga (La Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Alaves for / against | Line | Malaga for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5our book | 0.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.13 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.13 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.13 for · 14.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.38 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.25 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.38 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.63 for · 11.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.63 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
Alaves
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Boyé n 8 | 79.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | — |
| Aitor Mañas n 8 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez n 8 | 15.3 | 2.2 | 5.9 | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez n 8 | 83.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | — |
| Mikel Rodriguez n 8 | 57.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Rodríguez n 8 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Toni Martínez n 8 | 59.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| L. Boyé n 8 | 79.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| M. Díaz n 8 | 43 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Angel Pérez n 8 | 69.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Díaz n 8 | 43 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| L. Boyé n 8 | 79.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Hugo Novoa n 8 | 60.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Angel Pérez n 8 | 69.1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Carles Aleñá n 8 | 25.8 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Yusi n 8 | 27 | 4.2 |
| Mikel Rodriguez n 8 | 57.8 | 3.5 |
| Guevara n 8 | 23 | 2.9 |
| Antonio Blanco n 8 | 73.6 | 2.8 |
| C. Benavídez n 8 | 31 | 2.5 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Sivera n 8 | 90 | 3.4 |
Malaga
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julen Lobete n 8 | 17.6 | 3.2 | 6.4 | — |
| Puga n 8 | 51.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Jens-Lys Cajuste n 8 | 31.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | — |
| Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh n 8 | 40.9 | 1.7 | 2.5 | — |
| Juan Cruz n 8 | 42.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eneko Jauregi n 8 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Adrián Niño Heredia n 8 | 42.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Rafa Rodríguez n 8 | 40.9 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Chupe n 8 | 81.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Julen Lobete n 8 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Niño Heredia n 8 | 42.4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| H. Abaida n 8 | 14.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Pablo Martínez n 8 | 70.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Eneko Jauregi n 8 | 20.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Juan Cruz n 8 | 42.6 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Puga n 8 | 51.6 | 3.7 |
| David Larrubia n 8 | 80.3 | 3.1 |
| Juan Cruz n 8 | 42.6 | 2.9 |
| Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh n 8 | 40.9 | 2.8 |
| Carlos Dotor n 8 | 69.9 | 2.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Herrero n 8 | 90 | 3.8 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Alaves v Malaga — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2023-05-20 Alaves 2–1 Malaga
- 2022-12-18 Malaga 1–0 Alaves
- 2018-05-06 Malaga 0–3 Alaves
- 2017-12-21 Alaves 1–0 Malaga
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Alaves v Malaga?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Alaves v Malaga is Home win (best price 1.80 at William Hill).
- What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Malaga?
- In their last 4 meetings, Alaves won 3, Malaga won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Alaves and Malaga?
- Recent form — Alaves 0W 1D 4L; Malaga 0W 2D 3L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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