Atletico Madrid v Alaves prediction

La Liga · · Metropolitano Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Alaves · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico Madrid v Alaves, La Liga on Sun, 02 May 2027 16:00 BST posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atletico Madrid host Alaves in La Liga on Sunday 2 May (kick-off 16:00 UK).

The key numbers

Atletico Madrid have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Atletico Madrid have won their last six matches in all competitions. Alaves are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Alaves.

Form and the table

10 of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in seven of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Atletico Madrid have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 0.57. Atletico Madrid have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Atletico Madrid have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Alaves’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Alaves’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Alaves have one win, three draws and two defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.83 and conceding 1.00. Alaves have scored 13 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Alaves have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Atletico Madrid (second) and Alaves (seventh) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico Madrid the stronger side, 275 rating points above Alaves (Atletico Madrid 1785, Alaves 1510, after at least 313 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 October 2026, finished Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid.

Team news

Predicted Atletico Madrid XI (4-4-2): J. Oblak, Á. Grimaldo, D. Hancko, M. Pubill, C. Romero, G. Simeone, M. Hjulmand, Koke, J. Cardoso, L. Kang-In, J. David — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Álex Grimaldo (5.0 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and one assist) and Alex Baena (4.3 per match over 11 appearances, five goals and three assists) have been Atletico Madrid’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Madrid (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Álex Grimaldo averages 2.1 tackles per 90 over 926 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Alex Baena averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 1497 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Alaves XI (5-3-2): Sivera, N. Tenaglia, V. Koski, Jonny, N. Valentini, Yusi, P. Ibáñez, A. Blanco, A. Rebbach, L. Boyé, T. Martínez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Lucas Boyé (5.2 per match over eight appearances, five goals) and Pablo Ibáñez (3.6 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Alaves’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alaves (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Lucas Boyé averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 638 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last eight appearances. Pablo Ibáñez averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 760 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · La Liga · Metropolitano Stadium
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico Madrid 3 · draws 2 · Alaves 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Atletico Madrid 5W 0D 0L · Alaves 0W 1D 4L

Atletico Madrid v Alaves (La Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.25
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.38 / 3.63
Corners
against 3.63 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 3.13 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.75 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAtletico Madrid for / againstLineAlaves for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.38 for · 3.63 against n 8
9.5standard
3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8
Shots
16.75 for · 8.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.13 for · 13.38 against n 8
Shots on target
6.5 for · 3.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 10.5 against n 8
21.5standard
13.38 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Arnau Ortiz n 822.9
35/1
2.55/0
—
Alex Baena n 850.5
2.96/3
0.93/1
—
Rodrigo Mendoza n 845.1
2.56/2
1.25/0
—
Alexander Sørloth n 861.5
1.85/2
0.53/0
—
Lee Kang-In n 870
1.65/2
0.84/1
—
Atletico Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Julián Alvarez n 855.4
3.97/6
1.85/3
Alex Baena n 850.5
2.98/4
2.27/2
Jonathan David n 860.5
2.47/3
1.76/2
Dávid Hancko n 869.8
1.86/3
0.53/0
Álex Grimaldo n 876.4
1.66/3
0.94/2
Atletico Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Alex Baena n 850.5
0.42/0
0.94/0
Jonathan David n 860.5
0.63/0
0.42/0
Julián Alvarez n 855.4
0.21/0
0.42/0
Álex Grimaldo n 876.4
0.43/0
0.11/0
Giuliano Simeone n 871.1
0.32/0
0.21/0
Atletico Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Koke n 853.6
2.94/3
Marcos Llorente n 879.4
2.67/5
Álex Grimaldo n 876.4
1.88/4
Dávid Hancko n 869.8
1.86/4
Giuliano Simeone n 871.1
1.75/3
Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Jan Oblak n 890
3.47/4
Alaves
Alaves — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Boyé n 879.8
2.88/7
1.86/2
—
Aitor Mañas n 819.5
2.34/0
2.33/1
—
Miguel Rodríguez n 815.3
2.22/1
5.95/3
—
Pablo Ibáñez n 883.8
1.97/5
2.17/5
—
Mikel Rodriguez n 857.8
1.94/3
2.36/3
—
Alaves — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Miguel Rodríguez n 815.3
3.74/1
2.23/0
Toni Martínez n 859.4
2.75/4
0.42/0
M. Díaz n 843
2.45/3
1.84/2
L. Boyé n 879.8
2.37/5
1.45/3
Angel Pérez n 869.1
1.67/2
0.85/0
Alaves — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Díaz n 843
0.52/0
0.52/0
L. Boyé n 879.8
0.73/1
00/0
Hugo Novoa n 860.5
0.21/0
0.42/0
Angel Pérez n 869.1
00/0
0.52/1
Carles Aleñá n 825.8
00/0
0.41/0
Alaves — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Yusi n 827
4.26/3
Mikel Rodriguez n 857.8
3.58/5
Guevara n 822.3
33/1
Antonio Blanco n 873.6
2.86/6
C. Benavídez n 831
2.54/1
Alaves — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Sivera n 890
3.47/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Atletico Madrid v Alaves — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Atletico MadridWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
AlavesLLDLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Atletico Madrid 3 · 2 draws · Alaves 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2026-10-10 Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid
  • 2026-01-18 Atletico Madrid 1–0 Alaves
  • 2025-08-30 Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid
  • 2025-05-03 Alaves 0–0 Atletico Madrid
  • 2024-11-23 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
  • 2024-04-21 Alaves 2–0 Atletico Madrid
League standing · 2026/27
Atletico Madrid#2 pos22 pts9 pl+11 GD
Alaves#7 pos11 pts9 pl+3 GD
Goals per game
Atletico Madrid scored2.11
Alaves scored1.44
Atletico Madrid conceded0.89
Alaves conceded1.11

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Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
In their last 6 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3, Alaves won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
Recent form — Atletico Madrid 5W 0D 0L; Alaves 0W 1D 4L.

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