Valencia v Athletic Club prediction

La Liga · · Estadio de Mestalla

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Valencia · Athletic Club · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Valencia v Athletic Club, La Liga on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Draw or Away
Best price: 1.28 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 67.3% of 1315 landed (95% range 64.7–69.8%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Valencia host Athletic Club in La Liga on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or Athletic Club, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last five matches.

Form and the table

Seven of Valencia’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Valencia’s last 15 results (53%). At home, Valencia have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.75. Valencia have scored six goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Valencia have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Six of Athletic Club’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Athletic Club’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Athletic Club have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.86. Athletic Club have scored seven goals, the fourth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Athletic Club have conceded six goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Valencia (19th) and Athletic Club (10th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Athletic Club the stronger side, 99 rating points above Valencia (Athletic Club 1572, Valencia 1473, after at least 349 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia.

Team news

Predicted Valencia XI (5-4-1): S. Dimitrievski, Pepelu, J. Gayà, P. Maffeo, J. Vázquez, M. Diakhaby, F. Ugrinic, J. Guerra, G. Rodríguez, A. Dieng, H. Duro — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Guido Rodríguez (4.3 per match over five appearances) and Javi Guerra (2.8 per match over eight appearances, two assists) have been Valencia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Valencia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Guido Rodríguez averages 0.4 key passes per 90 over 407 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last five appearances. Javi Guerra averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 681 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Athletic Club XI (4-2-3-1): U. Simón, A. Laporte, Yuri, J. Areso, Yeray, O. Sancet, B. Gerenabarrena, R. Navarro, N. Williams, R. de Galarreta, I. Williams — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Robert Navarro (3.6 per match over six appearances, two goals) and Nico Williams (3.2 per match over six appearances, one goal) have been Athletic Club’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Athletic Club (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Robert Navarro averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 362 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last six appearances. Nico Williams averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 562 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · La Liga · Estadio de Mestalla
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Valencia 3 · draws 0 · Athletic Club 3 · 1.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Valencia 1W 1D 3L · Athletic Club 2W 3D 0L

Valencia v Athletic Club (La Liga): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 5
Corners
against 4.25 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.63 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 5.5 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.38 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameValencia for / againstLineAthletic Club for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5our book
1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.25 for · 4.25 against n 8
9.5standard
5 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
10.5 for · 15.88 against n 8
19.5standard
12.88 for · 8.88 against n 8
Shots on target
2.63 for · 5.5 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.5 for · 11.25 against n 8
21.5standard
10.88 for · 9.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
Valencia
Valencia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Dani Raba n 830
33/3
1.54/0
—
G. Rodríguez n 884.6
26/5
2.48/6
—
A. Dieng n 851.3
27/2
0.72/1
—
Iker Córdoba n 831.6
1.84/1
0.41/0
—
U. Sadiq n 840.5
1.74/2
1.44/1
—
Valencia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Dani Raba n 830
33/2
1.93/1
U. Sadiq n 840.5
2.25/3
1.74/2
A. Danjuma n 871.4
27/4
0.84/1
Harvey Elliott n 828.8
23/1
0.82/0
Javi Guerra n 881.3
1.24/3
0.11/0
Valencia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Dani Raba n 830
0.82/0
00/0
Luis Rioja n 858.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
U. Sadiq n 840.5
0.62/0
00/0
Arnau Martínez n 861.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
G. Rodríguez n 884.6
0.32/0
00/0
Valencia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Rodríguez n 884.6
3.58/6
José Gayà n 875.4
3.36/6
A. Dieng n 851.3
3.15/3
César Tárrega n 875
2.77/4
Jesús Vázquez n 854.4
2.37/4
Valencia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Dimitrievski n 890
4.98/8
Athletic Club
Athletic Club — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ruíz de Galarreta n 861.1
2.65/5
1.85/3
—
Gorka Guruzeta n 856.4
2.47/2
0.83/1
—
Hugo Rincón n 828.4
2.45/1
46/2
—
Mikel Jauregizar n 849.4
2.36/1
1.14/1
—
Beñat Gerenabarrena n 874.6
2.15/4
1.56/3
—
Athletic Club — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Nico Williams n 855.1
2.77/5
0.63/0
Gorka Guruzeta n 856.4
2.65/5
0.83/1
Oihan Sancet n 878.1
2.38/5
0.95/1
I. Williams n 862.4
26/4
0.93/2
Maroan Sannadi n 829.4
1.94/1
1.13/0
Athletic Club — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
I. Williams n 862.4
0.21/0
0.42/0
Peio Canales n 866.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
Robert Navarro n 862.1
0.42/0
00/0
Nico Williams n 855.1
0.42/0
00/0
Álex Berenguer n 850.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
Athletic Club — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Hugo Rincón n 828.4
46/3
Mikel Jauregizar n 849.4
3.46/4
A. Boiro n 843.6
2.84/3
Johaneko Louis-Jean n 643
2.44/2
Beñat Gerenabarrena n 874.6
2.36/4
Athletic Club — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Álex Padilla n 897.5
2.57/4
Unai Simón n 884.4
2.14/3

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Valencia v Athletic Club — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ValenciaLLWLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Athletic ClubWWDDD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 1.2 scored / 0.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Valencia 3 · 0 draws · Athletic Club 3 · 1.5 goals/game
  • 2026-05-10 Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia
  • 2026-02-04 Valencia 1–2 Athletic Club
  • 2025-09-20 Valencia 2–0 Athletic Club
  • 2025-05-18 Valencia 0–1 Athletic Club
  • 2024-08-28 Athletic Club 1–0 Valencia
  • 2024-01-20 Valencia 1–0 Athletic Club
League standing · 2026/27
Valencia#19 pos5 pts8 pl-9 GD
Athletic Club#10 pos8 pts6 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Valencia scored0.75
Athletic Club scored1.17
Valencia conceded1.88
Athletic Club conceded1

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Valencia v Athletic Club?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Valencia v Athletic Club is Draw or Away (best price 1.28 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Athletic Club?
In their last 6 meetings, Valencia won 3, Athletic Club won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Valencia and Athletic Club?
Recent form — Valencia 1W 1D 3L; Athletic Club 2W 3D 0L.

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