Valencia v Villarreal prediction
Team pages: Valencia · Villarreal · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Valencia v Villarreal, La Liga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 17:30 BST.
The match
Valencia host Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 17:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Villarreal are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Valencia.
Form and the table
Seven of Valencia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Valencia’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Valencia have two wins, three draws and four defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.89 and conceding 1.56. Valencia have scored six goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Valencia have conceded 15 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs.
10 of Villarreal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Villarreal’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Villarreal have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.63. Villarreal have scored 13 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Villarreal have conceded 13 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 20 clubs.
Valencia are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Valencia (19th) and Villarreal (12th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Villarreal the stronger side, 96 rating points above Valencia (Villarreal 1574, Valencia 1478, after at least 351 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Villarreal 2–1 Valencia.
Team news
Predicted Valencia XI (5-4-1): S. Dimitrievski, Pepelu, P. Maffeo, J. Gayà, J. de Haas, C. Tárrega, F. Ugrinic, J. Guerra, G. Rodríguez, A. Danjuma, H. Duro — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Guido Rodríguez (4.5 per match over six appearances) and Javi Guerra (2.9 per match over nine appearances, two assists) have been Valencia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Valencia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Guido Rodríguez averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 493 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last six appearances. Javi Guerra averages 1.1 key passes per 90 over 771 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Villarreal XI (4-4-2): P. Gulácsi, R. Veiga, A. Freeman, S. Cardona, P. Navarro, P. Gueye, S. Comesaña, A. Moleiro, N. Saliba, A. Pérez, G. Mikautadze — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nicolas Pépé (3.8 per match over seven appearances, two goals) and Alberto Moleiro (3.7 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Villarreal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Villarreal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nicolas Pépé averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 823 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Alberto Moleiro averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 685 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · La Liga · Estadio de Mestalla
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Valencia 1 · draws 2 · Villarreal 3 · 2.33 goals/game
- Recent form: Valencia 1W 2D 2L · Villarreal 3W 1D 1L
Valencia v Villarreal (La Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Valencia for / against | Line | Villarreal for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 0.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.38 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 11.5 for · 16.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.5 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 2.75 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.13 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.38 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Valencia
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Raba n 8 | 35 | 3.2 | 2.3 | — |
| G. Rodríguez n 8 | 84.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | — |
| A. Dieng n 8 | 51.3 | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Iker Córdoba n 8 | 31.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | — |
| U. Sadiq n 8 | 40.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Raba n 8 | 35 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| U. Sadiq n 8 | 40.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| A. Danjuma n 8 | 72.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Harvey Elliott n 8 | 19.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| David Otorbi n 8 | 42.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| U. Sadiq n 8 | 40.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Dani Raba n 8 | 35 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Arnau Martínez n 8 | 61.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Luis Rioja n 8 | 51.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| G. Rodríguez n 8 | 84.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| G. Rodríguez n 8 | 84.1 | 3.9 |
| A. Dieng n 8 | 51.3 | 3.1 |
| José Gayà n 8 | 74.8 | 2.6 |
| Jesús Vázquez n 8 | 45 | 2.5 |
| César Tárrega n 8 | 75 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Dimitrievski n 8 | 90 | 4.6 |
Villarreal
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Saliba n 8 | 63.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | — |
| T. Oluwaseyi n 8 | 36.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | — |
| T. Buchanan n 8 | 56.9 | 2 | 3.2 | — |
| Santi Comesaña n 8 | 64 | 1.9 | 1.1 | — |
| C. Macia n 8 | 19.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. Oluwaseyi n 8 | 36.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Alberto Moleiro n 8 | 67.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| G. Mikautadze n 8 | 45.4 | 2.7 | 2 |
| T. Buchanan n 8 | 56.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Ayoze Pérez n 8 | 52.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez n 8 | 52.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Alberto Moleiro n 8 | 67.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Gerard Moreno n 8 | 43.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| N. Pépé n 8 | 67.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| G. Mikautadze n 8 | 45.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| C. Macia n 8 | 19.1 | 7.6 |
| A. Diatta n 3 | 34.7 | 3.5 |
| Carlos Romero n 8 | 75.1 | 2.7 |
| A. Freeman n 8 | 72.8 | 2.6 |
| S. Mouriño n 8 | 65.3 | 2.4 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| P. Gulácsi n 8 | 82.4 | 2.6 |
| Luíz Júnior n 8 | 90 | 2.3 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Valencia v Villarreal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-02-22 Villarreal 2–1 Valencia
- 2025-10-25 Valencia 0–2 Villarreal
- 2025-02-15 Villarreal 1–1 Valencia
- 2024-08-31 Valencia 1–1 Villarreal
- 2024-03-17 Villarreal 1–0 Valencia
- 2024-01-02 Valencia 3–1 Villarreal
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Valencia v Villarreal?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Valencia v Villarreal is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.68 at Betvictor).
- What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
- In their last 6 meetings, Valencia won 1, Villarreal won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Valencia and Villarreal?
- Recent form — Valencia 1W 2D 2L; Villarreal 3W 1D 1L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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