West Brom v Derby result

Full-time · West Brom 1–1 Derby

League Cup · Tue, 12 Aug 2025 19:45 BST · The Hawthorns

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: West Brom · Derby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

West Brom 1–1 Derby — this League Cup match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1553 landed (95% range 73.1–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

West Brom and Derby drew 1–1 at The Hawthorns in the League Cup on Tuesday 12 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: West Brom out-shot Derby 20 to 4 and created the better chances, 1.69 xG to 0.40 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — West Brom: Aune Heggebø (67’, assisted by Isaac Price); Derby: Joe Ward (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Joe Ward’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

Thomas Kirk, England showed five yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — West Brom: George Campbell (48’); Derby: Callum Elder (25’), Andreas Weimann (56’), Ebrima Adams (83’) and Joshua Vickers (95’).

What it changes

West Brom are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Joe Ward (Derby) 7.1, Michael Johnston (West Brom) 5.9 and Isaac Price (West Brom) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, West Brom or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1170 of 1553).

Next up

West Brom next travel to Preston on 24 October 2026.

Derby next travel to Sheffield Utd on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for West Brom: Preston v West Brom, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Derby: Sheffield Utd v Derby, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: West Brom 1–1 Derby · League Cup
Venue: The Hawthorns · West Bromwich
Referee: Thomas Kirk, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): West Brom 1 · draws 1 · Derby 4 · 1.83 goals/game
Recent form: West Brom 2W 1D 2L · Derby 2W 1D 2L

West Brom 1–1 Derby (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.25 / 0.88

Goals

against 1.5 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 5.17

Corners

against 5.5 / 4.83 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

3.75 / 3.33

Shots on target

against 3.88 / 3 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

2.38 / 2.33

Cards

against 1.75 / 1.67 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	West Brom for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.88 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.63 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.17 for · 4.83 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	14.13 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	8.83 for · 10 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.33 for · 3 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.75 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.83 for · 10.83 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	2.38 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.33 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: Thomas Kirk, England.

West Brom

West Brom — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
T. Bany n 8	39.1	3.2 7/3	2.3 5/3	—
G. Diangana n 8	41.4	2.4 5/2	1.9 4/3	—
A. Heggebø n 8	89	1.9 7/5	1.3 6/3	—
D. Dike n 8	23.4	1.9 4/0	2.9 3/2	—
Darnell Furlong n 8	86.6	1.6 5/3	1.8 7/5	—

West Brom — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Dike n 8	23.4	2.9 4/1	1 2/0
A. Heggebø n 8	89	2.5 7/6	1.4 7/4
T. Bany n 8	39.1	2 6/1	0.3 1/0
I. Price n 8	75.4	1.9 7/3	1 4/2
A. Armstrong n 8	46.3	1.9 5/1	1.2 4/1

West Brom — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Dike n 8	23.4	0.5 1/0	0.5 1/0
T. Bany n 8	39.1	0.3 1/0	0.6 2/0
Tom Fellows n 8	69.6	0.3 1/1	0.5 2/1
A. Heggebø n 8	89	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
J. Wallace n 8	39.4	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

West Brom — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
T. Bany n 8	39.1	3.7 7/4
G. Diangana n 8	41.4	3 4/3
M. Holgate n 8	67.1	2.7 6/5
C. Styles n 8	85.1	2.4 7/6
J. Swift n 8	65	2.1 5/4

Derby

Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Goudmijn n 8	17.1	3.3 2/2	2 2/1	—
E. Adams n 8	89.1	2.7 8/6	2.8 8/8	—
M. Harness n 8	78.1	2.6 8/6	0.1 1/0	—
K. Roofe n 8	17.1	2.6 3/1	3.9 3/1	—
C. Morris n 8	80.3	2.2 6/5	0.7 3/2	—

Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Yates n 8	86.8	1.6 6/3	1 6/1
A. Weimann n 8	40.6	1.4 3/2	0.8 2/1
N. Mendez-Laing n 8	40.1	1.1 2/1	1.1 2/1
C. Forsyth n 8	89.9	1 4/3	0.3 1/1
K. Jackson n 8	38.8	0.9 2/1	0.6 2/0

Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Weimann n 8	40.6	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
J. Yates n 8	86.8	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
C. Forsyth n 8	89.9	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
C. Morris n 8	80.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
N. Mendez-Laing n 8	40.1	0.3 1/0	0 0/0

Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Ozoh n 8	60.3	4.9 7/5
E. Adams n 8	89.1	2.9 8/5
M. Harness n 8	78.1	2.2 7/4
R. Nyambe n 8	64.1	2.1 5/4
H. Armstrong n 8	89.9	1.9 7/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
West Brom		Derby
55%	Possession	45%
1.69	Expected goals (xG)	0.40
20	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots off target	3
6	Blocked shots	0
15	Shots inside the box	2
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
5	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Saves	5
480	Passes	406
90%	Pass accuracy	83%

West Brom player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Wildsmith	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
Alex Williams	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.6
C. Taylor	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
G. Campbell	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	Y	6.3
C. Styles	90	0	0	2	1	3	4	0	7.3
O. Diakité	90	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	7.2
A. Mowatt	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7.7
M. Johnston	87	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	7.3
I. Price	79	0	1	3	1	4	1	0	7.2
A. Heggebø	79	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.2
Tom Fellows	69	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7
J. Wallace sub	22	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	5.3
J. Molumby sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
J. Maja sub	12	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5
K. Ahearne-Grant sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3

Derby player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Vickers	90	0	0	0	0	0	Y	8.2
J. Rooney	90	0	0	0	0	5	0	7
C. Forsyth	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.6
J. Ward	90	1	1	1	1	2	0	7.3
K. Goudmijn	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
C. Elder	90	0	0	0	1	2	Y	6.3
D. Brown	70	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Sanderson	63	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
B. Clark	63	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
D. Ozoh	63	0	0	0	0	3	0	7
A. Weimann	63	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
D. Batth sub	28	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.6
B. Osborn sub	28	0	0	0	0	1	0	5.2
E. Adams sub	28	0	0	0	0	1	Y	7.2
L. Wheeldon sub	28	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
K. Jackson sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind West Brom v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

West BromLLDWW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

DerbyLWWDL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

West Brom 1 · 1 draw · Derby 4 · 1.83 goals/game

2025-04-21 West Brom 1–3 Derby
2024-12-26 Derby 2–1 West Brom
2022-08-23 Derby 1–0 West Brom
2021-12-27 Derby 1–0 West Brom
2021-09-14 West Brom 0–0 Derby
2020-07-08 West Brom 2–0 Derby

Goals per game

West Brom scored1.4

Derby scored1

West Brom conceded1.6

Derby conceded1

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for West Brom v Derby?: TACTIX’s free model pick for West Brom v Derby was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?: In their last 6 meetings, West Brom won 1, Derby won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of West Brom and Derby?: Recent form — West Brom 2W 1D 2L; Derby 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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