Leon v Atlas result

Full-time · Leon 2–3 Atlas

Liga MX · · Estadio Leon

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leon · Atlas · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leon 2–3 Atlas — Atlas won this Liga MX match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Atlas won 3–2 at Estadio Leon in Liga MX on Saturday 18 July. Leon have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Atlas: Duk (2’), A. González (50’, assisted by Gustavo Ferrareis) and A. Rocha (73’ pen); Leon: D. Cambindo (27’) and J. Cortizo (77’, assisted by A. Alvarado). D. Cambindo (42’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with A. González’s goal on 50 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Leon 1.23, Atlas 1.72, from 16 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Valle showed four yellow cards and one red — against 6.4 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Leon: R. Echeverria (73’) and A. Alvarado (90+9’); Atlas: M. Capasso (84’) and A. Rocha (85’).

What it changes

Leon are 15th (shared) after this result (one league match played).

Atlas are second (shared) after this result (one league match played).

Leon have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Duk (Atlas) 9.5, A. Rocha (Atlas) 7.7 and A. González (Atlas) 6.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Leon or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1122 of 1490).

Next up

Leon next travel to Tigres UANL on 21 October 2026.

Atlas next host Club America on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leon: Tigres UANL v Leon, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Atlas: Atlas v Club America, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Leon 2–3 Atlas · Liga MX
  • Venue: Estadio Leon · Leon
  • Referee: J. Valle
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leon 3 · draws 2 · Atlas 1 · 1.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leon 3W 0D 2L · Atlas 2W 1D 2L

Leon 2–3 Atlas (Liga MX): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 31 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 0.5
Goals
against 2.13 / 0.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6 / 3.88
Corners
against 4.86 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5 / 2.63
Shots on target
against 5.43 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.14 / 2.38
Cards
against 2.86 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
6.43 yellows
Referee · J. Valle
2.71 home / 3.71 away
over 7 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeon for / againstLineAtlas for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8
2.5our book
0.5 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 4.86 against n 7
9.5standard
3.88 for · 5.75 against n 8
Shots
14.43 for · 14.71 against n 7
19.5standard
10.75 for · 13.13 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 5.43 against n 7
8.5standard
2.63 for · 4.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.57 for · 13.14 against n 7
21.5standard
13.13 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.14 for · 2.86 against n 7
3.5standard
2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: J. Valle — 6.43 yellow cards a game, 1 red cards, 26.43 fouls over 7 matches (2.71 to the home side, 3.71 to the away side).

Leon
Leon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Rodriguez n 831.3
3.25/2
0.71/1
—
B. Colula n 867.8
2.77/6
0.73/1
—
R. Echeverria n 868.5
2.57/4
1.13/2
S. Hernández
S. Vegas n 879.6
2.17/5
0.63/1
—
D. Cambindo n 878.3
1.77/4
1.36/2
—
Leon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
I. Diaz n 857.8
3.38/7
1.86/3
A. Alvarado n 831.3
2.54/2
2.23/2
D. Cambindo n 878.3
2.45/5
1.45/3
A. Estrada n 822.8
24/0
00/0
R. Funes Mori n 821.4
1.63/0
0.51/0
Leon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Cambindo n 878.3
0.64/0
0.11/0
I. Diaz n 857.8
0.21/0
0.42/0
R. Funes Mori n 821.4
0.51/0
00/0
B. Colula n 867.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
Fernando Beltrán n 856
0.42/0
00/0
Leon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
I. Rodriguez n 879.6
27/4
J. Cortizo n 827.5
22/2
A. Estrada n 822.8
23/1
V. Gauthier n 876.3
1.86/3
I. Moreno n 874.4
1.87/3
Leon — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
O. Garcia n 891.9
3.86/6
Atlas
Atlas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Gamboa n 819.9
2.85/0
3.44/2
—
E. Aguirre n 867.1
2.36/6
3.46/6
—
M. García n 831.1
2.25/1
2.55/2
—
V. Ríos n 875.4
1.55/3
0.11/0
—
S. Hernández n 860.6
1.54/3
1.75/3
R. Echeverria
Atlas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Gamboa n 819.9
2.83/2
0.61/0
D. González n 871.3
2.58/4
0.94/1
M. Capasso n 890
1.36/3
0.43/0
E. Aguirre n 867.1
1.26/1
0.21/0
V. Ríos n 875.4
0.94/2
0.43/0
Atlas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Gamboa n 819.9
00/0
1.12/0
A. González n 862.8
0.42/0
00/0
D. González n 871.3
00/0
0.21/0
M. Capasso n 890
0.11/0
00/0
A. Rocha n 882.1
0.11/0
00/0
Atlas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Gamboa n 819.9
45/2
M. García n 831.1
3.36/3
É. Zaldívar n 830.5
2.64/2
G. Aguirre n 869.8
2.47/4
S. Hernández n 860.6
25/4
Atlas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Vargas n 883
1.64/1

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LeonAtlas
46%Possession54%
1.23Expected goals (xG)1.72
16Shots9
8Shots on target7
6Shots off target1
2Blocked shots1
7Shots inside the box5
6Corners2
0Offsides4
15Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
4Saves6
351Passes427
81%Pass accuracy82%

Leon player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
O. Garcia9000001006.7
Juan José Guevara Possu9000100306.3
S. Vegas9000000507.3
S. Reyes9000111205.9
I. Rodriguez9000100106.3
I. Moreno8200000306.5
R. Echeverria7400000406.6
D. Arcila5600104106.6
S. Santos5500111106.2
I. Diaz5500210106.3
D. Cambindo4210211006.2
J. Cortizo sub3510111207.9
A. Alvarado sub3501111006.6
E. Guerra sub3400110306.3
L. Valadez sub1600000006.3
Fernando Beltrán sub800212106.9

Atlas player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Sánchez9000000006.3
Gustavo Ferrareis9001001206.9
M. Capasso9000001206.3
R. Schlegel9000000006.2
A. Rocha9010111307.3
S. Hernández9000000306.9
R. Mmaee9000112006.2
Duk8910110507.9
É. Zaldívar6400000106.9
A. González5710320207.3
J. Rodríguez4500000106.3
Milton Valenzuela sub4500110407
Luís Esteves sub3300110006.2
V. Ríos sub2600000106.6
J. Lozano sub1300000006.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Leon v Atlas — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeonWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
AtlasWDWLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 0.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leon 3 · 2 draws · Atlas 1 · 1.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-05 Leon 2–0 Atlas
  • 2025-10-23 Atlas 2–0 Leon
  • 2025-01-19 Atlas 1–2 Leon
  • 2024-10-24 Leon 0–0 Atlas
  • 2024-02-18 Atlas 0–1 Leon
  • 2023-10-25 Leon 1–1 Atlas
League standing · 2026
Leon#7 pos18 pts12 pl+1 GD
Atlas#3 pos21 pts12 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Leon scored1.5
Atlas scored1.58
Leon conceded1.42
Atlas conceded1.5

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Leon v Atlas?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leon v Atlas was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Leon and Atlas?
In their last 6 meetings, Leon won 3, Atlas won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leon and Atlas?
Recent form — Leon 3W 0D 2L; Atlas 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 19 predictions, advanced stats & value against the bookies with ProTry Pro for £1.00 →