Leon v Toluca prediction
Team pages: Leon · Toluca · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Leon v Toluca, Liga MX on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 00:00 BST.
The match
Leon host Toluca in Liga MX on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 00:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Leon have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Toluca have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions. Toluca are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Leon, every meeting checked. Toluca are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
Seven of Leon’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Leon’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Leon have five wins, no draws and one defeat in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.50 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 1.00. Leon have scored 18 goals, the ninth-most of the 18 clubs (2026 so far). Leon have conceded 17 goals, the eighth-most of the 18 clubs.
Eight of Toluca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Toluca’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Toluca have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 away matches in all competitions — 1.60 points per game, scoring 1.60 and conceding 1.40. Toluca have scored 26 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs (2026 so far). Toluca have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Leon (seventh) and Toluca (second) are three points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Toluca the stronger side, 69 rating points above Leon (Toluca 1609, Leon 1540, after at least 340 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 3 September 2026, finished Toluca 2–0 Leon.
Team news
Predicted Leon XI (4-1-4-1): O. Garcia, J. Possu, I. Moreno, J. Romaña, S. Vegas, D. Arcila, I. Rodriguez, J. Cortizo, J. Lara, R. Echeverria, D. Cambindo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, D. Arcila (4.4 per match over 17 appearances, eight goals and two assists) and D. Cambindo (4.0 per match over 16 appearances, six goals and four assists) have been Leon’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Leon (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), D. Arcila averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1292 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. D. Cambindo averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 1105 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Toluca XI (4-2-3-1): L. Garcia, F. Pereira, B. Mendez, E. López, J. Gallardo, N. Castro, Helinho, F. Romero, A. Vega, F. Viñas, Paulinho — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Helinho (5.2 per match over 23 appearances, seven goals and seven assists) and J. Gallardo (5.0 per match over 19 appearances, five goals and three assists) have been Toluca’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Toluca (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Helinho averages 2.9 key passes per 90 over 1506 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. J. Gallardo averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 2647 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Liga MX · Estadio León
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Leon 0 · draws 2 · Toluca 4 · 4.67 goals/game
- Recent form: Leon 2W 2D 1L · Toluca 1W 2D 2L
Leon v Toluca (Liga MX): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Leon for / against | Line | Toluca for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 2.25 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.75 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 6.13 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.5 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 17.63 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.5 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.13 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 14 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.75 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 |
Leon
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Colula n 8 | 42.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | — |
| S. Vegas n 8 | 67.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | — |
| Christopher Mora n 4 | 50.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | — |
| S. Reyes n 8 | 52.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | — |
| J. Lara n 8 | 54 | 1.7 | 2.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Cambindo n 8 | 82.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| I. Diaz n 8 | 41.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| D. Arcila n 8 | 75.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Fernando Beltrán n 8 | 44.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| A. Alvarado n 8 | 32.3 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Alvarado n 8 | 32.3 | 1 | 0 |
| D. Cambindo n 8 | 82.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Fernando Beltrán n 8 | 44.6 | 0 | 0.5 |
| I. Diaz n 8 | 41.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| D. Arcila n 8 | 75.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| B. Colula n 8 | 42.5 | 4 |
| Christopher Mora n 4 | 50.8 | 3.5 |
| S. Vegas n 8 | 67.3 | 3 |
| J. Cortizo n 8 | 55.3 | 2.9 |
| I. Moreno n 8 | 79.9 | 2.8 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| O. Garcia n 8 | 90.8 | 3.1 |
Toluca
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vega n 8 | 67.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | — |
| D. Barbosa n 8 | 56 | 2.2 | 1 | — |
| J. Gallardo n 8 | 77.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | — |
| É. Gutiérrez n 8 | 59 | 1.9 | 0.6 | — |
| V. Guzmán n 8 | 34.3 | 1.6 | 0 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Diaz n 8 | 31.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| Helinho n 8 | 71.4 | 3.5 | 2 |
| O. Virgen n 8 | 28.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| F. Viñas n 8 | 69.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Paulinho n 8 | 72.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| O. Virgen n 8 | 28.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Helinho n 8 | 71.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| A. Vega n 8 | 67.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| F. Viñas n 8 | 69.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| É. Gutiérrez n 8 | 59 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Barbosa n 8 | 56 | 5.8 |
| É. Gutiérrez n 8 | 59 | 3.8 |
| P. Perez n 8 | 27.5 | 3.7 |
| F. Pereira n 8 | 84.4 | 3.1 |
| Santiago Simón n 8 | 64.5 | 3.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Garcia n 8 | 88.1 | 3.3 |
| H. Gonzalez n 8 | 81.5 | 2.1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Leon v Toluca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-09-03 Toluca 2–0 Leon
- 2026-04-26 Toluca 4–1 Leon
- 2025-10-05 Leon 2–4 Toluca
- 2025-02-09 Leon 3–3 Toluca
- 2024-11-02 Toluca 2–2 Leon
- 2024-02-03 Toluca 4–1 Leon
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Leon v Toluca?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Leon v Toluca is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.62 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Leon and Toluca?
- In their last 6 meetings, Leon won 0, Toluca won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 4.67 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Leon and Toluca?
- Recent form — Leon 2W 2D 1L; Toluca 1W 2D 2L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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