Necaxa v FC Juarez prediction

Liga MX · · Estadio Victoria

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Necaxa · FC Juarez · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Necaxa v FC Juarez, Liga MX on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 02:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 394 of 600 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.7%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Necaxa host FC Juarez in Liga MX on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 02:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

FC Juarez have scored eight goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2026 so far).

Necaxa are winless in their last nine matches in all competitions. FC Juarez are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Necaxa are unbeaten in the last six meetings with FC Juarez, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

10 of Necaxa’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 12 of Necaxa’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%). At home, Necaxa have two wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 2.00. Necaxa have scored 15 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026 so far). Necaxa have conceded 25 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs.

10 of FC Juarez’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of FC Juarez’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, FC Juarez have two wins, no draws and seven defeats in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 0.67 points per game, scoring 0.89 and conceding 2.78. FC Juarez have conceded 31 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026 so far).

Necaxa (17th) and FC Juarez (18th) are five points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Necaxa the stronger side, 0 rating points above FC Juarez (Necaxa 1319, FC Juarez 1318, after at least 247 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished FC Juarez 1–2 Necaxa.

Team news

Predicted Necaxa XI (4-1-4-1): L. Jiménez, A. Oliveros, K. Naves, R. Martínez, A. Peña, P. Pedraza, D. Leyva, L. Faravelli, O. Ojeda, M. Espindola, J. Carranza — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, J. Carranza (4.9 per match over 14 appearances, seven goals and two assists) and C. Vargas (3.6 per match over 10 appearances, one assist) have been Necaxa’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Necaxa (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), J. Carranza averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 1120 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. C. Vargas averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 638 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted FC Juarez XI (4-2-3-1): S. Jurado, G. Sepulveda, J. Murillo, F. Nevárez, D. Piña, D. García, J. Rodríguez, Monchu, R. Dourado, J. Torres, Ó. Estupiñán — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Daniel Piña (3.8 per match over four appearances, one assist) and J. Rodríguez (3.7 per match over 14 appearances, one goal and four assists) have been FC Juarez’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for FC Juarez (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Daniel Piña averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 990 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances. J. Rodríguez averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1916 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Liga MX · Estadio Victoria
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Necaxa 2 · draws 4 · FC Juarez 0 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Necaxa 0W 1D 4L · FC Juarez 1W 1D 3L

Necaxa v FC Juarez (Liga MX): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 0.75
Goals
against 2.25 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 4.63
Corners
against 5.5 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 6 / 6.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 3.63
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameNecaxa for / againstLineFC Juarez for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 5.63 against n 8
Shots
14.38 for · 18.13 against n 8
19.5standard
10 for · 16.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 6 against n 8
8.5standard
3.38 for · 6.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 12 against n 8
21.5standard
13.38 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
3.63 for · 2.25 against n 8
Necaxa
Necaxa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Pedraza n 870.3
3.27/5
0.63/1
—
J. Carranza n 885.3
2.48/6
2.28/5
—
R. Monreal n 851.9
24/3
25/3
—
M. Pedroza n 411.3
21/0
21/0
—
J. Ruiz n 859.8
1.96/3
48/5
—
Necaxa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Carranza n 885.3
2.68/4
1.25/3
E. Rodriguez n 848.9
2.56/3
0.73/0
Juan Torres n 834.9
2.34/3
1.64/1
Owen de Jesús González Ojeda n 865.3
2.27/3
15/1
J. Valencia n 630.7
22/1
11/1
Necaxa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Pedroza n 411.3
21/0
00/0
J. Carranza n 885.3
0.54/0
0.11/0
Owen de Jesús González Ojeda n 865.3
0.32/0
0.21/0
J. Valencia n 630.7
0.51/0
00/0
M. Espindola n 859.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Necaxa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Vargas n 862.1
4.78/7
R. Cortéz n 826
2.23/1
Kaiky Naves n 879.9
2.18/6
E. Rodriguez n 848.9
2.15/2
R. Monreal n 851.9
26/3
Necaxa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Jiménez n 890
3.87/7
FC Juarez
FC Juarez — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Silva n 559.2
2.13/2
0.62/0
—
J. Carmona n 730.6
2.14/1
2.53/2
—
F. Nevárez n 874.1
1.77/2
0.95/1
—
J. Torres n 873.1
1.77/4
2.38/5
—
Rodrigo Dourado n 854.4
1.77/1
0.83/1
—
FC Juarez — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Martínez Dupuy n 822.9
34/2
0.51/0
Ó. Estupiñán n 884.4
2.98/5
1.35/4
Monchu n 854.4
2.76/4
0.63/0
J. Sigala n 844.3
25/3
0.83/0
J. Rodríguez n 886.3
1.67/3
0.53/1
FC Juarez — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ó. Estupiñán n 884.4
0.74/1
00/0
J. Rodríguez n 886.3
00/0
0.43/0
J. Torres n 873.1
00/0
0.32/0
Daniel Piña n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
D. García n 861.9
00/0
0.21/0
FC Juarez — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Silva n 559.2
34/2
R. Fulgencio n 830
2.64/2
F. Nevárez n 874.1
2.46/5
J. Aquino n 862.1
2.45/3
Guilherme Castilho n 844.9
2.34/2
FC Juarez — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Jurado n 890
4.98/6

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Necaxa v FC Juarez — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NecaxaLLLDL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
FC JuarezLWLDL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Necaxa 2 · 4 draws · FC Juarez 0 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-02-15 FC Juarez 1–2 Necaxa
  • 2025-09-13 Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
  • 2025-04-16 FC Juarez 2–2 Necaxa
  • 2024-08-24 Necaxa 3–0 FC Juarez
  • 2024-02-04 FC Juarez 2–2 Necaxa
  • 2023-09-16 Necaxa 1–1 FC Juarez
League standing · 2026
Necaxa#17 pos9 pts12 pl-10 GD
FC Juarez#18 pos4 pts12 pl-23 GD
Goals per game
Necaxa scored1.25
FC Juarez scored0.67
Necaxa conceded2.08
FC Juarez conceded2.58

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Necaxa v FC Juarez?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Necaxa v FC Juarez is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Necaxa and FC Juarez?
In their last 6 meetings, Necaxa won 2, FC Juarez won 0 and there were 4 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Necaxa and FC Juarez?
Recent form — Necaxa 0W 1D 4L; FC Juarez 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s boards

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