Le Havre v Auxerre prediction

Ligue 1 · · Stade Océane

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Le Havre vs Auxerre, Ligue 1 on Sun, 18 Oct 2026 16:15 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4309 landed (95% range 75.9–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Le Havre host Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October (kick-off 16:15 UK); the model’s free pick is Le Havre or Auxerre (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Le Havre are winless in their last six matches.

Auxerre have scored in 11 consecutive matches. Auxerre have conceded 16 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Form and the table

Four of Le Havre’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in nine of Le Havre’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Le Havre have no wins, four draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches — 0.57 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.29. Le Havre have scored four goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Le Havre have conceded eight goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

10 of Auxerre’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Auxerre’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Auxerre have one win, two draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches — 0.63 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 2.38. Auxerre have scored eight goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Le Havre (18th) and Auxerre (16th) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Auxerre the stronger side, 104 rating points above Le Havre (Auxerre 1542, Le Havre 1438, after at least 108 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Le Havre are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Auxerre. The most recent meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre.

Team news

Predicted Le Havre XI (3-4-2-1): G. Gallon, A. Seko, A. Touba, D. Ouziad, S. Ebonog, A. Richardson, E. Jelert, T. Pembélé, K. Mizuta, J. Maja, M. Samatta — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Simon Ebonog (4.6 per match over six appearances) and A. Richardson (4.0 per match over six appearances) have been Le Havre’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Le Havre (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Simon Ebonog averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 524 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last six appearances. A. Richardson averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 524 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last six appearances.

Predicted Auxerre XI (3-4-2-1): M. Diop, C. Akpa, C. Makosso, A. Tuanzebe, K. Danois, A. Piedfort, N. Ahamada, L. Sy, F. Oppegård, C. Archer, D. Namaso — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Cameron Archer (5.8 per match over four appearances, four goals) and Kévin Danois (4.8 per match over six appearances) have been Auxerre’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Auxerre (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cameron Archer averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 365 minutes, with a shot in five of the last five appearances. Kévin Danois averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 540 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last six appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Ligue 1 · Stade Océane
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Le Havre 4 · draws 1 · Auxerre 1 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Le Havre 0W 2D 3L · Auxerre 2W 0D 3L

Le Havre v Auxerre (Ligue 1): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 15 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.13 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.63 / 5.88
Corners
against 4.38 / 6.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 4.13 / 5.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.63 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLe Havre for / againstLineAuxerre for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.75our book
1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 6.38 against n 8
Shots
14 for · 12.13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.38 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 5.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.63 for · 14.63 against n 8
21.5standard
14.38 for · 9.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8
Le Havre
Le Havre — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Richardson n 876.5
2.57/5
1.66/4
—
S. Boufal n 859.9
2.46/4
36/6
—
S. Ebonog n 869.9
2.37/5
2.76/5
—
T. Pembélé n 839.8
24/3
0.62/0
—
R. Fofana n 833.9
24/2
4.35/3
—
Le Havre — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Samatta n 887.3
37/5
1.36/3
I. Soumaré n 870.3
2.27/3
15/1
J. Maja n 850.3
1.85/2
0.93/1
Kaito Mizuta n 761.3
1.75/3
0.41/1
S. Nakamura n 847.1
1.76/1
14/0
Le Havre — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Nakamura n 847.1
0.52/0
0.21/0
S. Boufal n 859.9
0.21/0
0.42/0
I. Soumaré n 870.3
0.32/0
0.21/0
M. Samatta n 887.3
0.32/0
00/0
V. Sasso n 877.3
0.31/1
00/0
Le Havre — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Pembélé n 839.8
3.77/4
E. Koffi Vinette n 824.1
3.35/2
R. Ndiaye n 868.5
3.16/6
S. Boufal n 859.9
36/4
S. Ebonog n 869.9
2.67/5
Le Havre — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Mpasi n 889.9
4.35/5
G. Gallon n 875.9
2.84/3
Auxerre
Auxerre — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Mandengue n 415
10.54/1
32/0
—
E. Owusu n 872.6
2.26/4
0.63/1
—
K. Danois n 890
1.87/6
1.66/3
—
L. Sy n 887.5
1.86/5
0.54/0
—
E. Legros n 438.5
1.81/1
00/0
—
Auxerre — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Sinayoko n 887.6
2.78/7
1.87/4
R. Labeau Lascary n 841.4
2.74/3
2.23/3
Cameron Archer n 862.5
2.37/5
1.35/2
S. Mara n 846.3
2.24/2
12/1
D. Namaso n 880.1
1.77/4
16/1
Auxerre — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Mandengue n 415
00/0
1.51/0
L. Sinayoko n 887.6
0.94/2
0.11/0
Cameron Archer n 862.5
0.74/0
0.21/0
S. Mara n 846.3
0.72/1
0.21/0
R. Labeau Lascary n 841.4
0.31/0
00/0
Auxerre — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Danois n 890
3.47/7
R. Mandengue n 415
32/0
D. Namaso n 880.1
27/3
E. Legros n 438.5
1.82/1
G. Mensah n 884.9
1.77/3
Auxerre — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Diop n 890
47/7

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Le Havre v Auxerre — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Le HavreDLDLL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
AuxerreLLWWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Le Havre 4 · 1 draw · Auxerre 1 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-04-05 Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre
  • 2025-10-26 Auxerre 0–1 Le Havre
  • 2025-05-04 Auxerre 1–2 Le Havre
  • 2024-09-01 Le Havre 3–1 Auxerre
  • 2022-05-07 Le Havre 1–2 Auxerre
  • 2021-12-21 Auxerre 2–3 Le Havre
League standing · 2026/27
Le Havre#18 pos2 pts6 pl-4 GD
Auxerre#16 pos6 pts6 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Le Havre scored0.67
Auxerre scored1.33
Le Havre conceded1.33
Auxerre conceded2.67

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Le Havre v Auxerre is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
In their last 6 meetings, Le Havre won 4, Auxerre won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Le Havre and Auxerre?
Recent form — Le Havre 0W 2D 3L; Auxerre 2W 0D 3L.

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