Derry City v St Patrick's Athl. prediction

Premier Division · · The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derry City · St Patrick's Athl. · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl., Premier Division on Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Draw or Away
Best price: 1.39 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 67% of 1316 landed (95% range 64.4–69.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. in the Premier Division (Ireland) on Monday 19 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or St Patrick's Athl., a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

St Patrick's Athl. have conceded 27 goals, the fewest of the 10 clubs (2026 so far).

Derry City are unbeaten in the last six meetings with St Patrick's Athl., every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Six of Derry City’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Derry City’s last 15 results (53%). At home, Derry City have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.43. Derry City have scored 45 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 10 clubs (2026 so far). Derry City have conceded 44 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 10 clubs.

Four of St Patrick's Athl.’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in five of St Patrick's Athl.’s last 15 results (33%). Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.86 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 0.71. St Patrick's Athl. have scored 53 goals, the third-most of the 10 clubs (2026 so far).

Derry City (sixth) and St Patrick's Athl. (third) are 18 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have St Patrick's Athl. the stronger side, 124 rating points above Derry City (St Patrick's Athl. 1780, Derry City 1656, after at least 267 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City.

Team news

Predicted Derry City XI (3-4-3): T. Norcott, P. McClean, J. Stott, C. Dummigan, N. Twisk, A. O'Reilly, D. Burns, E. Chapman, M. Duffy, T. Smith, J. Clarke — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Duffy (5.3 per match over 24 appearances, 10 goals and five assists) and Barry Cotter (4.3 per match over 24 appearances, two goals) have been Derry City’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Derry City (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Duffy averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1949 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Barry Cotter averages 3.0 tackles per 90 over 1736 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted St Patrick's Athl. XI (3-1-4-2): J. Anang, J. Redmond, S. Hoare, L. Turner, J. Lennon, B. Baggley, D. Nugent, Z. Elbouzedi, R. Sheridan, A. Keena, A. Olusanya — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, L. Turner (4.3 per match over 23 appearances, two goals and three assists) and J. Lennon (4.3 per match over 23 appearances, two goals and one assist) have been St Patrick's Athl.’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for St Patrick's Athl. (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Turner averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 1999 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances. J. Lennon averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 1850 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier Division · The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Derry City 2 · draws 4 · St Patrick's Athl. 0 · 1.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Derry City 2W 2D 1L · St Patrick's Athl. 3W 0D 2L

TACTIX runs Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. (Premier Division) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.63 / 0.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6 / 5.63
Corners
against 4.88 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 6.13
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 3.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 1.38
Cards
against 2 / 2.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameDerry City for / againstLineSt Patrick's Athl. for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5our book
1.63 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.63 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
16.5 for · 11 against n 8
19.5standard
16 for · 10.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
6.13 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.25 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
9.63 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 2.38 against n 8
Derry City
Derry City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
James Clarke n 859.1
2.76/4
1.15/1
—
James Olayinka n 839.9
1.73/2
1.13/1
—
N. Twisk n 884
1.66/5
0.72/2
—
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster n 857.5
1.64/4
1.85/3
—
D. Burns n 857.4
1.44/2
1.86/2
—
Derry City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Duffy n 887.6
3.78/7
1.77/3
James Clarke n 859.1
2.98/4
1.55/2
T. Smith n 862.8
2.25/4
0.94/1
L. Boyce n 860.6
2.27/4
0.62/1
E. Chapman n 856.8
23/3
0.41/1
Derry City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
James Clarke n 859.1
0.62/1
0.42/0
M. Duffy n 887.6
0.64/1
0.31/1
G. Whyte n 849.9
0.21/0
0.52/0
Adam O'Reilly n 891.4
0.54/0
0.11/0
L. Boyce n 860.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
Derry City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
James Olayinka n 839.9
2.86/3
Patrick McClean n 883
2.77/5
C. Dummigan n 870.6
2.57/5
Barry Cotter n 859.1
1.96/3
N. Twisk n 884
1.77/5
Derry City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Maher n 889.9
35/4
Tom Norcott n 590
1.83/1
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl. — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Rooney n 511
4.92/1
1.61/0
—
A. Olusanya n 859.6
2.37/3
0.41/1
—
J. Brown n 850.3
1.65/1
1.15/0
—
R. Palmer n 846
1.55/1
2.97/4
—
Darragh Nugent n 847.4
1.43/2
1.45/1
—
St Patrick's Athl. — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Edmondson n 842.3
5.18/8
1.34/1
A. Keena n 872.5
48/6
2.37/4
A. Olusanya n 859.6
2.67/4
1.36/1
K. Leavy n 875.1
2.17/6
1.66/4
Chris Forrester n 841.6
1.63/2
0.81/1
St Patrick's Athl. — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Keena n 872.5
0.84/1
0.32/0
A. Olusanya n 859.6
0.42/0
0.41/1
R. Sheridan n 841.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
Z. Elbouzedi n 873.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
B. Baggley n 853
0.21/0
0.21/0
St Patrick's Athl. — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Palmer n 846
3.45/4
J. Lennon n 891.4
3.17/7
J. Redmond n 891.4
2.57/6
J. McClelland n 857.6
2.38/3
B. Baggley n 853
2.35/4
St Patrick's Athl. — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Anang n 891.4
2.35/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Derry City v St Patrick's Athl. — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Derry CityDWDWL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
St Patrick's Athl.LWWWL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Derry City 2 · 4 draws · St Patrick's Athl. 0 · 1.33 goals/game
  • 2026-08-02 St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City
  • 2026-05-22 Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
  • 2026-03-16 St Patrick's Athl. 0–0 Derry City
  • 2025-08-29 Derry City 2–2 St Patrick's Athl.
  • 2025-06-23 St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Derry City
  • 2025-05-05 Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl.
League standing · 2026
Derry City#6 pos41 pts33 pl+1 GD
St Patrick's Athl.#3 pos59 pts33 pl+26 GD
Goals per game
Derry City scored1.36
St Patrick's Athl. scored1.61
Derry City conceded1.33
St Patrick's Athl. conceded0.82

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is Draw or Away (best price 1.39 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
In their last 6 meetings, Derry City won 2, St Patrick's Athl. won 0 and there were 4 draws, averaging 1.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Recent form — Derry City 2W 2D 1L; St Patrick's Athl. 3W 0D 2L.

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