Everton v Chelsea prediction

The match

Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 12:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Everton or Chelsea (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Everton are unbeaten in their last eight matches.

Form and the table

Nine of Everton’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Everton’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Everton have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.43. Everton have scored eight goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Everton have conceded five goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Chelsea’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Chelsea’s last 15 results (67%). Away from home, Chelsea have one win, one draw and four defeats in their last 6 away matches — 0.67 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.17. Chelsea have scored 15 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Chelsea have conceded 13 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Everton (fifth) and Chelsea (sixth) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Chelsea the stronger side, 41 rating points above Everton (Chelsea 1668, Everton 1627, after at least 348 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Everton 3–0 Chelsea.

Team news

Predicted Everton XI (4-2-3-1): J. Pickford, J. Tarkowski, J. Branthwaite, V. Mykolenko, M. Röhl, K. Dewsbury-Hall, H. Armstrong, J. Garner, T. George, B. Johnson, T. Barry — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Thierno Barry (5.7 per match over eight appearances, six goals and one assist) and James Tarkowski (5.3 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Everton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Everton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Thierno Barry averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 645 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last eight appearances. James Tarkowski averages 1.9 tackles per 90 over 630 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Chelsea XI (3-4-2-1): E. Martínez, M. Lacroix, L. Colwill, W. Fofana, P. Neto, R. Lavia, R. James, J. Hato, J. Henderson, P. Chavarría, C. Palmer — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, João Pedro (6.5 per match over six appearances, five goals and three assists) and Cole Palmer (6.4 per match over eight appearances, four goals and three assists) have been Chelsea’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Chelsea (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), João Pedro averages 1.8 shots per 90 over 549 minutes, with a shot in six of the last eight appearances. Cole Palmer averages 2.7 shots per 90 over 759 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.