Ipswich v Nottingham Forest prediction

Premier League · · Portman Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Ipswich v Nottingham Forest, Premier League on Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:00 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 386 of 587 times (65.8%), against an average rating of 68.8%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Ipswich host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Friday 23 October (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Ipswich have conceded 15 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Ipswich, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

11 of Ipswich’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Ipswich’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Ipswich have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.57. Ipswich have scored 11 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Eight of Nottingham Forest’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Nottingham Forest’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Nottingham Forest have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.14 and conceding 2.00. Nottingham Forest have scored five goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Nottingham Forest have conceded eight goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Ipswich (10th) and Nottingham Forest (17th) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Nottingham Forest the stronger side, 49 rating points above Ipswich (Nottingham Forest 1495, Ipswich 1447, after at least 45 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 15 March 2025, finished Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest.

Team news

Predicted Ipswich XI (4-2-3-1): K. Scherpen, D. O'Shea, I. Diop, L. Davis, J. Greaves, J. Enciso, S. Lukić, E. Palacios, D. Maeda, A. Fatawu, Emersonn — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Marcelino Núñez (4.9 per match over four appearances, two goals) and Dara O'Shea (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Ipswich’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ipswich (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Marcelino Núñez averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 359 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last five appearances. Dara O'Shea averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 1215 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Nottingham Forest XI (3-4-2-1): M. Sels, Murillo, Jair, O. Diomande, N. Williams, J. McAtee, X. Schlager, D. Muñoz, O. Aina, I. Sangaré, D. Ndoye — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Morgan Gibbs-White (4.7 per match over six appearances, one goal and two assists) and Neco Williams (3.2 per match over seven appearances) have been Nottingham Forest’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Nottingham Forest (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Morgan Gibbs-White averages 1.4 shots per 90 over 591 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances. Neco Williams averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1246 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier League · Portman Road
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Ipswich 0 · draws 2 · Nottingham Forest 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Ipswich 2W 0D 3L · Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L

Ipswich v Nottingham Forest (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 0.75
Goals
against 2.38 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
3.5 / 4.25
Corners
against 4.13 / 4.13 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 3.88
Shots on target
against 6.25 / 3.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameIpswich for / againstLineNottingham Forest for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
2.75our book
0.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
3.5 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.25 for · 4.13 against n 8
Shots
11.25 for · 17.63 against n 8
19.5standard
16.13 for · 11.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 6.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.88 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.5 for · 9.5 against n 8
21.5standard
13.88 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
Ipswich
Ipswich — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Z. Flemming n 830.1
37/1
1.52/2
—
S. Lukić n 862.1
2.77/4
0.53/0
—
Kasey McAteer n 840.5
2.56/1
1.43/1
—
A. Fatawu n 856.1
2.26/2
2.67/5
—
Cédric Kipré n 860.5
1.55/2
0.62/1
—
Ipswich — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Z. Flemming n 830.1
4.16/3
1.93/2
Jaden Philogene-Bidace n 850
2.96/4
2.36/3
Emersonn n 860.9
2.45/5
0.73/1
Kasey McAteer n 840.5
2.25/2
1.74/2
J. Enciso n 881.1
2.17/5
0.74/1
Ipswich — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Chuba Akpom n 829.5
0.82/0
0.41/0
Jack Clarke n 838.8
0.31/0
0.93/0
Z. Flemming n 830.1
0.72/0
00/0
Emersonn n 860.9
0.42/0
0.21/0
Leif Davis n 873.6
0.32/0
0.32/0
Ipswich — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Florentino n 862.5
3.47/5
E. Palacios n 862
3.47/5
S. Lukić n 862.1
2.76/4
A. Fatawu n 856.1
2.25/4
Dara O'Shea n 890
27/4
Ipswich — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Christian Walton n 890
3.67/5
K. Scherpen n 890
2.55/2
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Muñoz n 857.6
2.36/2
13/1
—
L. Delap n 858.6
1.96/3
1.35/2
—
X. Schlager n 887
1.78/4
1.35/3
—
Murillo n 871.3
1.75/2
0.32/0
—
O. Hutchinson n 842.3
1.64/2
1.33/1
—
Nottingham Forest — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Ndoye n 874.9
3.57/7
26/4
L. Delap n 858.6
2.56/3
0.42/0
T. Awoniyi n 853.1
2.17/2
0.83/1
D. Muñoz n 857.6
1.66/2
0.42/0
E. Anderson n 873.1
1.46/3
00/0
Nottingham Forest — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Ndoye n 874.9
0.53/0
0.52/1
C. Hudson-Odoi n 846.4
00/0
0.52/0
O. Hutchinson n 842.3
00/0
0.52/0
Morato n 859.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
T. Awoniyi n 853.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
Nottingham Forest — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Netz n 844.1
3.35/2
Morato n 859.6
3.25/4
I. Sangaré n 850.5
3.14/3
N. Domínguez n 857
37/6
X. Schlager n 887
2.77/5
Nottingham Forest — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
2.67/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
IpswichWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Nottingham ForestDDWLL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Ipswich 0 · 2 draws · Nottingham Forest 4 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-03-15 Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest
  • 2025-03-03 Nottingham Forest 1–1 Ipswich
  • 2024-11-30 Nottingham Forest 1–0 Ipswich
  • 2019-03-16 Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham Forest
  • 2018-12-01 Nottingham Forest 2–0 Ipswich
  • 2018-04-14 Nottingham Forest 2–1 Ipswich
League standing · 2026/27
Ipswich#10 pos9 pts7 pl-4 GD
Nottingham Forest#17 pos5 pts6 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Ipswich scored1.57
Nottingham Forest scored0.83
Ipswich conceded2.14
Nottingham Forest conceded1.33

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Ipswich v Nottingham Forest?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Ipswich v Nottingham Forest is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Nottingham Forest?
In their last 6 meetings, Ipswich won 0, Nottingham Forest won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Ipswich and Nottingham Forest?
Recent form — Ipswich 2W 0D 3L; Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 2L.

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