Liverpool v Brighton prediction

Premier League · · Anfield

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Liverpool · Brighton · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Liverpool v Brighton, Premier League on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 637 times (65.8%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Liverpool host Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Brighton have scored 23 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Brighton have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Brighton have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Liverpool’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 11 of Liverpool’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). At home, Liverpool have three wins, four draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.50. Liverpool have scored nine goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Liverpool have conceded eight goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in four of Brighton’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Brighton have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.43. Brighton have conceded five goals, the fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Liverpool have won their last three matches in all competitions. Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Liverpool (fifth) and Brighton (third) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Brighton the stronger side, 162 rating points above Liverpool (Brighton 1874, Liverpool 1712, after at least 349 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2026, finished Brighton 2–1 Liverpool.

Team news

Predicted Liverpool XI (4-2-3-1): A. Becker, V. van Dijk, J. Jacquet, M. Kerkez, R. Araújo, F. Wirtz, A. Mac Allister, D. Szoboszlai, V. Muñoz, C. Gakpo, A. Isak — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cody Gakpo (6.9 per match over seven appearances, two goals and five assists) and Florian Wirtz (4.6 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Liverpool’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Liverpool (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Cody Gakpo averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1327 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances. Florian Wirtz averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 1655 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Brighton XI (4-2-3-1): B. Verbruggen, L. Vušković, F. Kadıoğlu, O. Boscagli, L. Dunk, D. Gómez, P. Groß, M. De Cuyper, Y. Ayari, J. Baixauli, C. Kostoulas — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mats Wieffer (5.8 per match over four appearances, one goal) and Pascal Groß (5.1 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and four assists) have been Brighton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Brighton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mats Wieffer averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 362 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last five appearances. Pascal Groß averages 3.9 key passes per 90 over 1026 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Premier League · Anfield
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Liverpool 4 · draws 0 · Brighton 2 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Liverpool 4W 0D 1L · Brighton 5W 0D 0L

Liverpool v Brighton (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.25 / 3.25
Goals
against 1.5 / 0.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.5 / 6.38
Corners
against 4.88 / 4.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 3.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2.25
Cards
against 2 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLiverpool for / againstLineBrighton for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.25our book
3.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
16.75 for · 12 against n 8
19.5standard
19.63 for · 10.63 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 3.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.25 for · 9.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.88 for · 9.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 1 against n 8
Liverpool
Liverpool — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Chiesa n 89.5
3.63/0
2.42/0
—
J. McConnell n 833.4
2.45/1
23/2
—
J. Gomez n 824.1
2.33/2
00/0
—
L. Koumas n 860.4
26/4
0.73/1
—
Víctor Muñoz n 842.9
1.84/2
1.64/2
—
Liverpool — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 870.8
2.96/4
13/3
Víctor Muñoz n 842.9
2.97/2
1.34/1
B. Barcola n 855.3
2.64/4
1.23/1
A. Mac Allister n 867.1
2.55/5
14/2
A. Isak n 865
2.48/5
15/1
Liverpool — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Gakpo n 871
0.32/0
0.84/1
A. Isak n 865
0.94/1
0.21/0
B. Barcola n 855.3
0.61/1
0.21/0
Jeremie Frimpong n 851.4
0.21/0
0.41/1
K. Tsimikas n 874.1
00/0
0.63/1
Liverpool — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Jérémy Jacquet n 878.6
3.17/7
T. Nyoni n 844.3
2.86/3
J. Gomez n 824.1
2.83/1
Jeremie Frimpong n 851.4
2.25/2
J. McConnell n 833.4
25/1
Liverpool — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Mamardashvili n 886
3.98/5
Alisson Becker n 890
2.35/3
Brighton
Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
José María Andrés Baixauli n 860.5
2.47/5
0.73/1
—
M. Svoboda n 869
2.36/3
0.73/1
—
P. David n 829.3
2.34/2
0.82/0
—
J. Hadjam n 848.6
1.94/3
0.94/0
—
L. Vušković n 878.8
1.76/3
15/1
—
Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. David n 829.3
4.65/3
0.82/0
C. Kostoulas n 866
3.16/5
1.25/2
J. Hinshelwood n 860.5
37/4
2.27/3
M. O'Riley n 834.8
2.34/2
12/1
I. Osman n 846.6
2.24/3
0.72/1
Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Rutter n 840.6
0.61/1
0.83/0
J. Hinshelwood n 860.5
1.15/1
00/0
P. Groß n 883.5
0.54/0
0.53/1
C. Kostoulas n 866
0.74/0
0.32/0
P. David n 829.3
0.41/0
0.41/0
Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Gómez n 880.3
3.17/5
J. Hadjam n 848.6
2.57/3
M. De Cuyper n 864.9
2.47/3
M. Wieffer n 864.4
2.35/5
M. Svoboda n 869
26/3
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 20 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Jason Steele n 890
3.66/4
B. Verbruggen n 890
2.35/3

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Liverpool v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LiverpoolWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.6 scored / 2 conceded per game
BrightonWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.4 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Liverpool 4 · 0 draws · Brighton 2 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2026-03-21 Brighton 2–1 Liverpool
  • 2026-02-14 Liverpool 3–0 Brighton
  • 2025-12-13 Liverpool 2–0 Brighton
  • 2025-05-19 Brighton 3–2 Liverpool
  • 2024-11-02 Liverpool 2–1 Brighton
  • 2024-10-30 Brighton 2–3 Liverpool
League standing · 2026/27
Liverpool#5 pos12 pts7 pl+1 GD
Brighton#3 pos16 pts7 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Liverpool scored1.29
Brighton scored3.29
Liverpool conceded1.14
Brighton conceded0.71

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Liverpool v Brighton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Liverpool v Brighton is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Brighton?
In their last 6 meetings, Liverpool won 4, Brighton won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Liverpool and Brighton?
Recent form — Liverpool 4W 0D 1L; Brighton 5W 0D 0L.

Today’s boards

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