Vitória SC v Maritimo prediction

The match

Vitória SC host Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Friday 23 October (kick-off 20:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Vitória SC or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Three of Vitória SC’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (20%).

Maritimo are winless in their last six matches.

Vitória SC are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Maritimo, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in five of Vitória SC’s last 15 results (33%). At home, Vitória SC have two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 6 home matches — 1.33 points per game, scoring 0.67 and conceding 0.50. Vitória SC have scored five goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Vitória SC have conceded 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

12 of Maritimo’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 11 of Maritimo’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, Maritimo have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 away matches — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.63. Maritimo have scored nine goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Maritimo have conceded 14 goals, the sixth-most of the 18 clubs.

Vitória SC (15th) and Maritimo (11th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Maritimo the stronger side, 25 rating points above Vitória SC (Maritimo 1448, Vitória SC 1423, after at least 214 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 29 April 2023, finished Maritimo 1–2 Guimaraes.

Team news

Predicted Vitória SC XI (4-2-3-1): O. Zych, J. Mendes, T. Balieiro, T. Strata, Ó. Rivas, Samu, Gustavo, G. Nogueira, L. Doucet, M. Nogueira, A. Ndoye — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Gustavo (3.9 per match over seven appearances, one goal) and Tony Strata (3.3 per match over eight appearances, one assist) have been Vitória SC’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Vitória SC (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Gustavo averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 526 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances. Tony Strata averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 658 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Maritimo XI (4-2-3-1): A. Pastor, P. Henrique, R. Correia, I. Julião, R. Fernandes, R. Guzzo, R. Andrade, V. Danilović, M. Tejón, M. Diouri, A. Butzke — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Martín Tejón (4.1 per match over eight appearances, one goal and one assist) and Romain Correia (3.1 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Maritimo’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Maritimo (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Martín Tejón averages 1.1 key passes per 90 over 667 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last eight appearances. Romain Correia averages 1.0 tackles per 90 over 720 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last eight appearances.