Atletico-MG v Coritiba prediction
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Coritiba · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba, Serie A – Brazil on Sat, 17 Oct 2026 22:30 BST.
The match
Atletico-MG host Coritiba in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 22:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Atletico-MG or Coritiba (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last seven matches. Atletico-MG have scored in seven consecutive matches.
Coritiba are winless in their last five matches.
Form and the table
Eight of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results (60%). At home, Atletico-MG have eight wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 10 home matches — 2.60 points per game, scoring 2.20 and conceding 0.90. Atletico-MG have scored 41 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico-MG have conceded 35 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.
11 of Coritiba’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Coritiba’s last 15 results (60%). Away from home, Coritiba have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Coritiba have scored 38 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Coritiba have conceded 48 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Atletico-MG (seventh) and Coritiba (11th) are eight points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico-MG the stronger side, 270 rating points above Coritiba (Atletico-MG 1732, Coritiba 1463, after at least 182 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Coritiba 2–0 Atletico-MG.
Team news
Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-2-3-1): G. Delfim, Natanael, Vitão, V. Hugo, K. Pascini, Fred, Cuello, M. Cisse, Alexsander, Maycon, Reinier — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.2 per match over 37 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2738 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Coritiba XI (4-2-3-1): P. Luccas, B. Melo, T. Cóser, Jacy, R. Moledo, S. Gomez, Josué, J. Lavega, T. Santos, B. Lopes, P. Rocha — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Lucas Ronier (4.4 per match over 20 appearances, one goal and two assists) and Rodrigo Moledo (3.6 per match over eight appearances, three goals) have been Coritiba’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Coritiba (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Lucas Ronier averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 1585 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Rodrigo Moledo averages 0.7 tackles per 90 over 504 minutes, with a tackle in four of the last eight appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · MRV Arena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico-MG 3 · draws 1 · Coritiba 2 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Atletico-MG 3W 2D 0L · Coritiba 0W 2D 3L
TACTIX runs Atletico-MG v Coritiba (Serie A – Brazil) through its calibrated model across 246 markets, and publishes its market-by-market record openly (updated 14 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Atletico-MG for / against | Line | Coritiba for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 1.38 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.38 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.5 for · 7.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.75 for · 16.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12 for · 21.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5.38 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.25 for · 6.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.13 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.13 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.25 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Borbas n 8 | 38.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | — |
| Mamady Cisse n 8 | 45.5 | 2.2 | 2 | — |
| A. Franco n 8 | 81.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | — |
| A. Preciado n 8 | 59 | 1.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Igor Gomes n 8 | 29.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuello n 8 | 89 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Victor Hugo n 8 | 54.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| T. Borbas n 8 | 38.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Lucas Pasquoto n 8 | 32.3 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Fred n 8 | 80.3 | 2 | 1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier n 8 | 55.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| T. Borbas n 8 | 38.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Igor Gomes n 8 | 29.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Cuello n 8 | 89 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Fred n 8 | 80.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Preciado n 8 | 59 | 3.2 |
| Alexsander n 8 | 45.5 | 3 |
| Reinier n 8 | 55.8 | 2.2 |
| Mamady Cisse n 8 | 45.5 | 2.2 |
| Natanael n 8 | 78.8 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Delfim n 8 | 92.4 | 3.7 |
Coritiba
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Gelado n 3 | 22.3 | 4 | 0 | — |
| N. Fonseca n 8 | 62.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | — |
| Thiago Santos n 8 | 67.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | — |
| F. Bustos n 8 | 70.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | — |
| João Pedro Chermont n 8 | 56.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rocha n 8 | 74.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Josué n 8 | 73.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Paulo Roberto n 8 | 39 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues n 8 | 63.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| Fabinho n 8 | 28.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabinho n 8 | 28.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Pedro Rocha n 8 | 74.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Paulo Roberto n 8 | 39 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Rodrigo Moledo n 8 | 63 | 0.5 | 0 |
| João Pedro Chermont n 8 | 56.9 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Sobral n 8 | 30.6 | 3.7 |
| N. Fonseca n 8 | 62.3 | 3.1 |
| F. Bustos n 8 | 70.1 | 2.2 |
| Thiago Santos n 8 | 67.1 | 2 |
| Paulo Roberto n 8 | 39 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Luccas n 8 | 92.3 | 3.2 |
| Pedro Rangel n 8 | 90 | 2.9 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Atletico-MG v Coritiba — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-19 Coritiba 2–0 Atletico-MG
- 2023-10-08 Atletico-MG 1–2 Coritiba
- 2023-05-20 Coritiba 1–2 Atletico-MG
- 2022-08-14 Coritiba 0–1 Atletico-MG
- 2022-04-24 Atletico-MG 2–2 Coritiba
- 2020-12-26 Atletico-MG 2–0 Coritiba
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico-MG v Coritiba is Home or Away (best price 1.22 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Coritiba?
- In their last 6 meetings, Atletico-MG won 3, Coritiba won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Atletico-MG and Coritiba?
- Recent form — Atletico-MG 3W 2D 0L; Coritiba 0W 2D 3L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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