Santos v Bahia prediction
Team pages: Santos · Bahia · Head-to-head
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Santos v Bahia, Serie A – Brazil on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 01:00 BST.
The match
Santos host Bahia in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 01:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
The key numbers
Santos have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.
Form and the table
10 of Santos’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in nine of Santos’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Santos have two wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 5 home matches in all competitions — 1.80 points per game, scoring 1.40 and conceding 0.80. Santos have scored 48 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Santos have conceded 46 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Seven of Bahia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Bahia’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Bahia have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.29. Bahia have scored 44 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Bahia have conceded 36 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs.
Santos (eighth) and Bahia (seventh) are four points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Santos the stronger side, 71 rating points above Bahia (Santos 1760, Bahia 1689, after at least 335 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Bahia are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Santos. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, finished Bahia 2–2 Santos.
Team news
Predicted Santos XI (4-2-3-1): Diogenes, L. Peres, L. Veríssimo, G. Escobar, Rodinei, C. Oliva, G. Pereira, G. Bontempo, Everton, Arthur, G. Barbosa — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Neymar (5.3 per match over 24 appearances, 10 goals and seven assists) and Gabriel Barbosa (3.6 per match over 38 appearances, 21 goals and seven assists) have been Santos’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Santos (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Neymar averages 3.0 key passes per 90 over 1982 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Gabriel Barbosa averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 2845 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Bahia XI (4-3-3): Ronaldo, D. Duarte, L. Juba, R. Gómez, M. Victor, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, J. Lucas, A. Véliz, E. Pulga, C. Olivera — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Luciano Juba (4.0 per match over 31 appearances, 10 goals and one assist) and Nicolás Acevedo (3.5 per match over 31 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Bahia’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Bahia (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Luciano Juba averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 2643 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nicolás Acevedo averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 2620 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Estadio Urbano Caldeira
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Santos 1 · draws 4 · Bahia 1 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: Santos 3W 1D 1L · Bahia 2W 0D 3L
Santos v Bahia (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Santos for / against | Line | Bahia for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.38 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.13 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 15.5 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 14.25 for · 16.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 5 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.75 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.5 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 13.13 for · 11.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.63 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
Santos
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Schmidt n 8 | 52.1 | 2.4 | 0 | — |
| Everton n 8 | 42.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | — |
| Rony n 8 | 54.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | — |
| Gabriel Menino n 8 | 49.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | — |
| Rodinei n 8 | 90.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton n 8 | 42.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Gabriel Barbosa n 8 | 87.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Neymar n 8 | 73.8 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Rony n 8 | 54.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Coutinho n 8 | 65.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Barbosa n 8 | 87.5 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Neymar n 8 | 73.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Coutinho n 8 | 65.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Everton n 8 | 42.9 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Arthur n 8 | 50.3 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 8 | 67.5 | 4.3 |
| Lima n 8 | 20.6 | 3.8 |
| João Schmidt n 8 | 52.1 | 3 |
| Gonzalo Escobar n 8 | 87.4 | 2.7 |
| Luan Peres n 8 | 74.8 | 2.7 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Diogenes n 8 | 90.8 | 3.1 |
| Gabriel Brazão n 8 | 91 | 2.7 |
Bahia
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 19.5 | 4 | 1.7 | — |
| Jean Lucas n 8 | 60.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | — |
| Çağatay Yılmaz n 7 | 30.4 | 2.1 | 4.6 | — |
| Román Gómez n 8 | 60.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | — |
| Ademir n 8 | 30.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruan Pablo n 8 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Everaldo n 8 | 25 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Mateo Sanabria n 8 | 23.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Alejo Véliz n 8 | 86.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Erick Pulga n 8 | 79.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Lucas n 8 | 60.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Michel Araújo n 8 | 19.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Erick Pulga n 8 | 79.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Everaldo n 8 | 25 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mateo Sanabria n 8 | 23.9 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Erick n 8 | 55.3 | 2.9 |
| Marcos Victor n 8 | 50 | 2.9 |
| Ruan Pablo n 8 | 11.8 | 2.9 |
| Nicolás Acevedo n 8 | 79.6 | 2.4 |
| Everton Ribeiro n 8 | 20.1 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo n 8 | 90 | 5.1 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Santos v Bahia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-25 Bahia 2–2 Santos
- 2025-08-24 Bahia 2–0 Santos
- 2025-04-06 Santos 2–2 Bahia
- 2023-09-18 Bahia 1–2 Santos
- 2023-05-31 Bahia 1–1 Santos
- 2023-05-17 Santos 0–0 Bahia
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Santos v Bahia?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Santos v Bahia is Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia?
- In their last 6 meetings, Santos won 1, Bahia won 1 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Santos and Bahia?
- Recent form — Santos 3W 1D 1L; Bahia 2W 0D 3L.
Today’s boards
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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