AC Milan v Fiorentina prediction

Serie A ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AC Milan · Fiorentina · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for AC Milan v Fiorentina, Serie A on Wed, 06 Jan 2027 17:30 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

AC Milan host Fiorentina in Serie A on Wednesday 6 January (kick-off 17:30 UK).

The key numbers

Fiorentina have conceded 17 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Fiorentina have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of AC Milan’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of AC Milan’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, AC Milan have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.29. AC Milan have scored 14 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). AC Milan have conceded seven goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Fiorentina have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.33 and conceding 2.17. Fiorentina have scored eight goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Fiorentina are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. AC Milan (fourth) and Fiorentina (18th) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have AC Milan the stronger side, 307 rating points above Fiorentina (AC Milan 1754, Fiorentina 1447, after at least 349 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

AC Milan are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Fiorentina. The most recent meeting, on 11 January 2026, finished Fiorentina 1–1 AC Milan.

Team news

Predicted AC Milan XI (3-4-2-1): M. Maignan, S. Pavlović, K. De Winter, M. Gila, S. Chukwueze, Y. Musah, L. Modrić, A. Rabiot, P. Estupiñán, D. Moreira, G. Ramos — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Rabiot (4.6 per match over 10 appearances, four goals and four assists) and Diego Moreira (4.6 per match over seven appearances, three goals and one assist) have been AC Milan’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for AC Milan (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Rabiot averages 1.3 key passes per 90 over 1441 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Diego Moreira averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 695 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Fiorentina have one name on the availability list: R. Sottil (out, Back Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-22. Predicted Fiorentina XI (4-2-3-1): D. de Gea, R. Drăgușin, Á. Jiménez, Viery, Valde, C. Ndour, N. Fagioli, A. Atta, F. Mastantuono, C. Inao Oulaï, M. Pellegrino — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Franco Mastantuono (4.9 per match over nine appearances, three goals) and Cher Ndour (3.5 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Fiorentina’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fiorentina (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Franco Mastantuono averages 2.8 shots per 90 over 798 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Cher Ndour averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 937 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AC Milan 3 · draws 2 · Fiorentina 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: AC Milan 3W 1D 1L · Fiorentina 2W 1D 2L

AC Milan v Fiorentina (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.38 / 2.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 5
Corners
against 3.38 / 3.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 4.38 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 2
Cards
against 2 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAC Milan for / againstLineFiorentina for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
3.88 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
10.75 for · 11.88 against n 8
19.5standard
16.13 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.75 for · 4.38 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.13 for · 13.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.75 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.13 against n 8
AC Milan
AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Camarda n 818
3.12/2
1.32/0
—
P. Estupiñán n 851.9
26/2
0.92/1
—
A. Saelemaekers n 831.1
1.83/2
3.34/3
—
K. De Winter n 887.5
1.77/4
0.84/2
—
S. Pavlović n 878.1
1.66/3
1.97/2
—
AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gonçalo Ramos n 871.9
2.77/6
1.97/4
A. Cissè n 856.3
2.26/2
1.44/1
F. Camarda n 818
1.93/0
00/0
A. Rabiot n 869.6
1.86/5
0.85/0
O. Hutchinson n 839.5
1.43/1
0.92/1
AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gonçalo Ramos n 871.9
0.85/0
0.32/0
A. Cissè n 856.3
13/1
00/0
A. Rabiot n 869.6
0.53/0
0.32/0
A. Saelemaekers n 831.1
0.41/0
0.41/0
O. Hutchinson n 839.5
00/0
0.62/0
AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Saelemaekers n 831.1
3.65/2
S. Pavlović n 878.1
2.68/6
A. Rabiot n 869.6
2.47/4
O. Hutchinson n 839.5
2.33/2
D. Bartesaghi n 862.8
24/3
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 882.1
2.67/4
Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Pongračić n 849.4
2.14/3
0.21/0
—
Viery n 862.3
1.87/3
0.52/1
—
C. Inao Oulaï n 849.4
1.86/2
2.35/3
—
A. Guðmundsson n 844.5
1.84/2
1.85/1
—
Beto n 826.5
1.73/1
00/0
—
Fiorentina — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Kean n 856.9
37/5
26/4
Beto n 826.5
36/1
0.41/0
Franco Mastantuono n 865.3
2.87/4
1.96/2
A. Njie n 856.4
2.48/2
14/1
Pote n 838.6
2.35/2
0.62/0
Fiorentina — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Franco Mastantuono n 865.3
0.72/1
00/0
Pote n 838.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
Mateo Pellegrino n 868.8
0.53/0
00/0
Álex Jiménez n 868.6
0.21/0
0.32/0
M. Brescianini n 845.6
00/0
0.52/0
Fiorentina — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Viery n 862.3
3.36/4
Franco Mastantuono n 865.3
2.87/4
N. Fagioli n 880.4
2.47/5
Álex Jiménez n 868.6
2.35/4
C. Inao Oulaï n 849.4
2.37/1
Fiorentina — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 22 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David de Gea n 890
2.66/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind AC Milan v Fiorentina — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AC MilanWDWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
FiorentinaWWDLL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AC Milan 3 · 2 draws · Fiorentina 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-01-11 Fiorentina 1–1 AC Milan
  • 2025-10-19 AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina
  • 2025-04-05 AC Milan 2–2 Fiorentina
  • 2024-10-06 Fiorentina 2–1 AC Milan
  • 2024-03-30 Fiorentina 1–2 AC Milan
  • 2023-11-25 AC Milan 1–0 Fiorentina
League standing · 2026/27
AC Milan#4 pos15 pts7 pl+7 GD
Fiorentina#18 pos4 pts7 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
AC Milan scored2
Fiorentina scored1.14
AC Milan conceded1
Fiorentina conceded2.43

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Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
In their last 6 meetings, AC Milan won 3, Fiorentina won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AC Milan and Fiorentina?
Recent form — AC Milan 3W 1D 1L; Fiorentina 2W 1D 2L.

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