Flamengo v Atletico-MG prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Estádio do Maracanã

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Flamengo · Atletico-MG · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Flamengo v Atletico-MG, Serie A – Brazil on Mon, 26 Oct 2026 23:00 GMT.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4561 landed (95% range 76.2–78.6%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Flamengo host Atletico-MG in Serie A – Brazil on Monday 26 October (kick-off 23:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Flamengo or Atletico-MG (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Flamengo have scored 61 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).

Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Flamengo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Flamengo’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Flamengo have six wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.71 points per game, scoring 1.86 and conceding 0.57. Flamengo have conceded 25 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026 so far).

Seven of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Atletico-MG have no wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.50 points per game, scoring 0.50 and conceding 1.50. Atletico-MG have scored 42 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico-MG have conceded 35 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Flamengo (first) and Atletico-MG (sixth) are 17 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Flamengo the stronger side, 161 rating points above Atletico-MG (Flamengo 1903, Atletico-MG 1743, after at least 373 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Flamengo are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Atletico-MG. The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Atletico-MG 0–4 Flamengo.

Team news

Predicted Flamengo XI (4-2-3-1): A. Rossi, L. Pereira, L. Ortiz, G. Varela, E. Royal, S. Lino, Jorginho, E. Pulgar, L. Paquetá, J. Carrascal, Pedro — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Samuel Lino (4.3 per match over 42 appearances, 10 goals and nine assists) and Lucas Paquetá (4.1 per match over 31 appearances, 10 goals and one assist) have been Flamengo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Flamengo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Samuel Lino averages 2.3 key passes per 90 over 2907 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Lucas Paquetá averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2348 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-2-3-1): G. Delfim, Natanael, Vitão, V. Hugo, K. Pascini, Alexsander, Fred, Cuello, M. Cisse, Maycon, Reinier — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.2 per match over 39 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 2874 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Estádio do Maracanã
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Flamengo 3 · draws 2 · Atletico-MG 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Flamengo 3W 2D 0L · Atletico-MG 3W 1D 1L

Flamengo v Atletico-MG (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 22 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 0.63 / 1 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
7.13 / 6.38
Corners
against 4.38 / 6.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6 / 6.63
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 4.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 3.13 / 1.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameFlamengo for / againstLineAtletico-MG for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 0.63 against n 8
3our book
1.75 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
7.13 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 6.13 against n 8
Shots
14 for · 12.63 against n 8
19.5standard
15.5 for · 17.38 against n 8
Shots on target
6 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
6.63 for · 4.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.75 for · 12.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12 for · 10.75 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 3.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8
Flamengo
Flamengo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Alex Sandro n 868.4
2.87/6
1.54/3
—
S. Niguez n 840.9
2.55/2
0.62/0
—
Luiz Araujo n 838.4
2.14/3
1.22/1
—
E. Pulgar n 880.3
27/4
0.32/0
—
Lucas Paquetá n 862.6
27/2
26/4
—
Flamengo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. de la Cruz n 823.4
3.45/1
1.93/1
Pedro n 857.9
2.56/4
1.65/2
Bruno Henrique n 839.8
2.54/3
1.13/1
Lucas Paquetá n 862.6
2.35/5
1.34/3
Samuel Lino n 860.3
2.15/4
1.34/3
Flamengo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. de Arrascaeta n 861.5
0.42/0
0.42/0
Pedro n 857.9
0.42/0
0.42/0
Lucas Paquetá n 862.6
0.53/0
0.21/0
G. Varela n 862.9
0.21/0
0.42/0
Samuel Lino n 860.3
0.41/1
0.21/0
Flamengo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luiz Araujo n 838.4
3.85/5
Lucas Paquetá n 862.6
3.26/4
J. Freitas n 821.5
2.64/1
Samuel Lino n 860.3
2.45/5
N. de la Cruz n 823.4
2.44/1
Flamengo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Rossi n 890
3.17/6
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Mamady Cisse n 847.4
2.46/3
1.43/1
—
T. Borbas n 842.3
2.15/2
2.75/2
—
Fred n 880.3
1.87/3
2.57/6
—
A. Franco n 882.8
1.67/3
0.85/1
—
T. Perez n 868.8
1.56/2
0.21/0
—
Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Borbas n 842.3
2.95/5
1.14/0
Victor Hugo n 848.3
2.65/3
0.73/0
Reinier n 855
2.56/5
1.65/3
Cuello n 878.9
2.45/5
14/3
Igor Gomes n 834.4
2.33/2
12/1
Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Borbas n 842.3
0.83/0
0.31/0
Reinier n 855
0.83/1
0.21/0
Bernard n 875
0.64/0
00/0
Fred n 880.3
0.11/0
0.42/1
Cuello n 878.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Alexsander n 852.4
3.46/5
Natanael n 872
2.35/4
T. Perez n 868.8
2.36/4
Mamady Cisse n 847.4
2.13/2
Reinier n 855
1.84/3
Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Gabriel Delfim n 890.8
3.56/5

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Flamengo v Atletico-MG — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FlamengoWDWDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Atletico-MGDWWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Flamengo 3 · 2 draws · Atletico-MG 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • 2026-04-26 Atletico-MG 0–4 Flamengo
  • 2025-11-26 Atletico-MG 1–1 Flamengo
  • 2025-08-06 Atletico-MG 0–1 Flamengo
  • 2025-08-01 Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG
  • 2025-07-27 Flamengo 1–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2024-11-13 Flamengo 0–0 Atletico-MG
League standing · 2026
Flamengo#1 pos67 pts31 pl+36 GD
Atletico-MG#6 pos50 pts31 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Flamengo scored1.97
Atletico-MG scored1.35
Flamengo conceded0.81
Atletico-MG conceded1.13

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Flamengo v Atletico-MG?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Flamengo v Atletico-MG is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
In their last 6 meetings, Flamengo won 3, Atletico-MG won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Recent form — Flamengo 3W 2D 0L; Atletico-MG 3W 1D 1L.

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